Where is the Middle East conflict headed? This question torments analysts and governments. We remind you that without officially admitting it, according to their standard practice, the Israelis “neutralized” Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas in Tehran. It was preceded by an Israeli strike that killed a senior member of Hezbollah’s military arm, Fouad Shukr, near Beirut.
Also, in the last few hours, unconfirmed information has been circulated, according to which Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the Revolutionary Guards’ aerospace forces, has been assassinated in Damascus. In addition, on Thursday morning it became known that the IDF (Israeli Armed Forces) “on July 13, 2024, struck the area of Khan Younis with fighter jets and after evaluating the information from the intelligence services, it can be confirmed that Mohammed Daif neutralized on impact.”
Iran professes a desire to wipe Israel off the map, but the reality is far different. Tehran is doing nothing in this direction. It simply uses non-state actors, Islamic militias, to hurt Israel and its interests. Hamas is not even Shia and of course it fights Israel as a Palestinian organization. She accepts Iran’s support and that helps her, because they have a common enemy.
Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen are other cases. They are Shiite organizations, are armed by Iran, are complementary to its strategy, and have been shown to have an increasing ability to launch strikes against Israel. The geographical location of Yemen, in fact, has allowed the Houthis to hold the global economy hostage, which increases the importance of Iran on the international stage, since it is the only one that can control the Houthis. But the picture has turned out to be more complicated.
Israel is trying to deliver crushing blows to the arms of Iran, through which the Islamic Republic projects its power. The Jewish state feels threatened, while the real intentions of the Iranians boil down to deterrence. Certainly, “revisionist agenda” is imputed on both sides. Reading the opponent’s intentions has never been easy. This led to escalation, which often led to wars.
Bypassing “what’s wrong”
If the time period is not limited in the analysis of the current problem, we will get stuck in the well-known “blame them” impasse. Necessarily, we must consider as the starting date of the birth of today’s problem, October 7, 2023 and the carnage that followed the invasion of Hamas forces into the sleeping Israel. His strategic surprise was worse than that of 1973 (Yom Kippur War).
The central cause is the Palestinian, the fact that the Palestinian people do not have a state. A war with Hamas could break out on any other occasion, but October 7, 2023 is a major success for it, which gave Israel a handle to use unlimited military force. It even cemented the belief of its hard-line leadership that only a crushing military blow could bring results.
Of course, this word in the region has a relative meaning. It is obvious that on the occasion of October 7, 2023, the Palestinian issue entered the diplomatic agenda again. Just as it is obvious that for the Palestinians the situation before the attack by Hamas was unbearable and a dead end.
Israel is finding it difficult to root out Hamas because its fighters often mix with civilians, but also because Israeli violence is Hamas’ best feeder of fighters. But does this mean that Israel must passively monitor the equipment of Hamas and Iran’s “proxies”, waiting for the next blow? Obviously not. His mistake is that he refuses any meaningful discussion about the establishment of a Palestinian state.
The sight of the Iron Dome and the hate
The spotlight is on the region today, but not so much when rockets were being fired into Israeli territory and when Jewish settlers were killing Palestinians in the West Bank for trivial reasons. Possibly we chose to engage in the spectacle offered by the Iron Dome intercepting large numbers of these missiles. But it seems that by accepting this situation as roughly normal, we did not realize that we were paving the way for October 7th and what has followed since.
Even if the Palestinians were to obtain the state they supposedly seek, having, unlike the Kurds, the interest of an international audience, there is no guarantee that they would cease to care about the disappearance of Israel, although the Palestinian leadership has long since abandoned this. the goal. However, the hatred that exists between the two sides guarantees the continuation of the violence.
Israel, for its part, refuses to legitimize the Palestinians or Shiite organizations as equal interlocutors. The case of the Palestinians, however, is different, to the extent that he must agree with them on a sustainable solution to the problem. Consequently, the issue for the Israelis is on the one hand the instrumentalization of the various organizations by foreign powers, on the other hand the generalized use of armed violence.
In the last issue, of course, the eternal problem is the impossibility of answering the question “who was the wrongdoer”. The escalation has led to blows inside Iran as well. If there is a retaliatory strike from Iran, the only thing certain is that we will have gone up another step in the escalation.
Initiative neutralizes air defenses
It is of great interest to learn the details of the operation to assassinate Haniyeh in Tehran. What means were used to launch the projectile and from where it was launched. There was no air defense? This is a big problem for the Iranians who tout their capabilities based on domestic and Russian-made air defense systems. But as it turns out, absolutely successful air defense cannot exist and this is a fact that concerns everyone.
Whoever has the initiative has the advantage in place and time. This maximizes the importance of intelligence services, which, like air defense, are impossible to provide a one-size-fits-all solution. So, those who believe that there can be no other solution than diplomacy, are right in principle. Israel knows it too. But the point is that, as he did with the Sunni Arab regimes, he first proved in practice the impasse of the road of confrontation and then got involved diplomatically, since of course the other side sent the appropriate signals that it is interested in settlement.
Can this be done with Iran? It is very difficult and not only because of the rhetoric about the elimination of Israel. It would happen if there was a regime change there. Are we close to that point? Probably not. At this point, the highly problematic internal political situation in Israel must certainly be taken into account.
Finally, it is certain that Tehran’s “proxies” will be hit with all ferocity. It remains to be seen whether the leaderships will be wise and put the brakes on the escalation in time. Because there are also very bad scenarios. Let’s not forget, that the “game” between Israel and Hamas had a framework that did not automatically lead to war. There was a balance of terror. Once violently disrupted on October 7, 2023, the rules of the game have changed dramatically.
