We have entered an era of multiple crises that feed back with devastating results. Geopolitical risk has risen to levels not seen since the Cold War (see war in Ukraine, new China-US cold war). To these was added the war in Gaza, which from the beginning seemed to affect not only the relations of the Israelis with the Palestinians, but would dynamit the geopolitical stability of all the countries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. But since November 2023, when the Houthis began attacking maritime trade through the Red Sea, the stake has now become the freedom of the seas and the preservation of the liberal order (rule based order) built by the US after the end of the Second World War.
US planetary dominance was based on maritime dominance and the wealth it created through control of maritime transport (in trade and energy). The sovereignty of the sea in turn was based on the control through the American navy of seven critical sea straits (choke points): the Straits of Malacca in Singapore, the Straits of Hurmuz in the Persian Gulf, the Straits of Suez and Bab el-Madep at the entrance and exit of Red Sea, Hellespont, Gibraltar and the Panama Canal.
The attack by the Houthis – who essentially act as Iran’s proxies – in the Red Sea essentially disabled two of these critical straits thus affecting 12% of world trade and 40% of Asia-Europe trade. Container rates have already jumped 310% with upward trends while the African bypass via the Cape of Good Hope added an extra twelve days of travel and a million dollars in fuel costs per ship. This is starting to wreak havoc on global supply chains, which are already burdened by the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and most notably the US-China trade war. This fatally increases inflation and negatively affects the growth rates of the world economy.
With these data, it would be impossible for the US and its oceanic allies not to react militarily against the Houthis, which of course carries the risk of further escalation since they in turn threaten to close two more critical sea straits: Hormuz and Gibraltar (via Islamic terrorist groups in Morocco). Making a decision to attack Iran is more difficult because this entails the risk of Iran proceeding to the production of nuclear weapons and of direct American involvement with – Iran’s ally – Russia.
Regionally, the war in the Red Sea devalues the Suez Canal, which produces 10-12% of Egypt’s GDP, which is disastrous for political stability in this fragile country. Plans have also begun for the land bypass of Suez which directly affects the geopolitical interests of Greece-Turkey. The war in Gaza and the setback in the process of rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia seem to derail the planned corridor between India – UAE – Saudi Arabia – Israel – Cyprus – Greece that was decided last September at the Summit of the twenty richest countries of the world held in India.
With the Houthi attacks on maritime transport, the competitive corridor from the Iraqi port of Basra to Istanbul and from there via Bulgaria to Europe is now being implemented. Turks consider the collapse of the Ottoman Empire to be related to the economic weakening that came with the disuse of the overland Silk Road when the maritime trade corridor began in 1869 with the operation of the Suez Canal. Therefore, now Turkey is getting a historic revenge with the expected debasement of Suez.
Turkey’s engagement in infrastructure geopolitics is related to its neo-Ottoman nostalgia: the Iraq-Turkey-Europe corridor revives the German-Ottoman geopolitical project of the Berlin-Baghdad rail link. This plan is considered one of the causes of the start of the first world war since it escalated the confrontation between the ocean powers and the continental ones. History is back!
