Skilled generals don’t win battles, they win wars. This approach, as applied by the Russian leadership, comes increasingly to the fore against the background of the attempt to disintegrate the old world order and create a new, harsher reality.
Ukraine is just one episode in the series of hybrid war declared by Russia, where everything is being mobilized: from the economy, politics and informational and ideological backlash to direct military action… And Russia, through its multi-layered policy, with consistently demonstrates to the world what real asymmetry is on all fronts, including the Pacific.
On Tuesday, December 26, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa mournfully said that “Japan considers the actions of Russia unacceptable, which refused to allow Japanese fishermen to fish in the Kuril Islands, and will continue to work to renew of the agreement with Russia that regulates this matter.
Kuriles Islands
Let us recall that on February 21, 1998, Russia and Japan concluded an agreement on the fishing of marine living resources in the Kuril Islands region, which must be renewed every year.
This year, on January 19, the Japanese embassy received a notification from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that “the Russian side cannot agree on the schedule of the annual intergovernmental consultations”, which translates into Japanese as defeat.
Reason: Russia has repeatedly stated that Japan does not take a constructive stance in bilateral relations. In fact, Japan has joined the group of states unfriendly to Russia. After the start of the war in Ukraine, Japan joined the anti-Russian sanctions in early December this year, imposing restrictions on 57 companies from Russia.
The Land of the Rising Sun also allocated $4.5 billion to aid Ukraine, while holding military exercises on the island of Hokkaido alongside the United States and Australia.
Finally, just a few days ago, the Japanese made legislative changes related to arms exports to supply the US with Patriot anti-aircraft missiles to replenish US stockpiles in Ukraine.
The best; Japan is heavily dependent on Russian hydrocarbon supplies: in 2023 alone, Russia collected more than four billion dollars from the sale of oil and natural gas to Tokyo. The Land of the Rising Sun imported 46.9% more liquefied gas from Russia in November than in the same month a year ago.
In addition, it is heavily dependent on Russian supplies for the production of semiconductors, palladium and ferroalloys.
The US will fill the “gap”
If the solution to the “Japanese question” depended on the hosts of “turbo-patriots,” then all the valves, taps, and valves would not merely be closed, but torn out by the roots, and Japan would depend solely on the United States.
After all of Japan’s recent policies, the collective West was sure that Russia would do just that and celebrated.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Japan will not give up our energy resources, let them continue to buy (and fill our budget). And then the hyper-anti-Russian Japan was quick to sidestep Western sanctions on the joint Arctic LNG 2 project, where it is a shareholder, saying in plain text that this project is important for its energy independence.
Although the Japanese were forced to officially withdraw their employees from the site, they said they intended to keep their stake in the project no matter what. As we can see, although Japan is defending its own interests and not the Russians, at the moment they coincide. After all, the truth is that in real politics there is only one constant: hard pragmatism, playing with contradictions, asymmetry, exchange of leverage, bets.
China the leading economy and Russia the largest economy in Europe
In a recent interview, the assistant to the Russian President Maxim Oreshkin said that the so-called economies of the global north (USA, Japan, EU) have lost their importance: China has become the leading economy and Russia has become the largest economy in Europe .
Russia’s realpolitik has softened the granite structure of European countries, from which more and more voices are heard that policy changes are required. Despite the “curses” of the United States, Russia continues to occupy one of the first positions in the supply of hydrocarbons to Europe.
In total, EU countries bought 1.2 billion cubic meters of Russian liquefied gas in October, which is 1.7 times more than in September. As a result, according to the country’s Deputy Prime Minister Adrej Belussov, Russia’s oil and gas revenues are at the level of a prosperous 2021.
In addition, according to recent data, Russia has become one of the five largest grain suppliers to the EU (in September alone, Russian grain imports to the EU increased by 22% during the month and tenfold during the year). As the Russian president said, “we do not close our doors to anyone, but we will not abandon ours either, and if we need something, let’s discuss the conditions. These are our terms…”. This means that Russia has deprived the West of another monopoly.
