The April 25 meeting in Moscow between the Turkish and Syrian defense ministers, their Russian Iranian counterparts, as well as intelligence chiefs, marks another step towards normalizing relations between Ankara and Damascus.
And this is because although Turkey saw the outbreak of the civil war in Syria as the starting point for a necessary “regime change” in Syria, which also led it to support specific armed organizations of the Syrian opposition, which today constitute the “Syrian National Army”, and in the severance of relations with the government in Damascus, the developments that followed took on other priorities.
At first it appeared that the case for “regime change” was difficult to advance as with the decisive support of Russia, Iran and pro-Iranian organizations, the Assad government managed to stay in power and have significant successes in the war against Islamic armed groups, with as a result of which today it has regained political control over most of the Syrian territory.
Then, the fact that the armed Kurdish militias managed to form local forms of self-government that referred to a quasi-state formation and even next to the Turkish border, increased the “existential fear” of the Turkish side for a development that exerted great pressure inside Turkey as well. .
And of course, as the years passed, it began to appear that the initial climate of particularly intense solidarity with the millions of Syrian refugees who found themselves on the territory of Turkey began to recede and they were treated more negatively.
All this shaped new priorities. Turkey cooperated with Russia and Iran in the Astana process, to the extent that it received from these countries a guarantee that a Kurdish state or quasi-state entity would not be established on the territory of Syria, although American cooperation with the Kurds still raises a major obstacle to Turkey being able to carry out even larger operations on Syrian soil than it has carried out so far. Gradually, Turkey shifted its attitude towards the Assad government, starting to leave open the possibility of normalization. And of course, gradually the discussion in Turkey about the Syrian refugees began to shift in Turkey, from solidarity, to how they will return to Syria.
The Syrian issue in the pre-election period in Turkey
To all of this we must add the special climate that is forming before the Turkish elections. Erdogan sees Kılıçdaroğlu making a pretensions to the presidency, also having the support indirectly of the leftist and pro-Kurdish HDP, with the opposition leader supporting the search for ways to return Syrian refugees to their homeland and avoiding the logic of armed intervention on the territory of Syria. This puts pressure on Erdogan to show that he too can engineer similar developments.
In any case, Turkey knows that in order not to have the permanent fear of Kurdish militias in Syria, what is needed is precisely a more comprehensive solution to the Syrian problem that guarantees that Syria is a single and sovereign state, whose sovereignty includes and the areas now under Kurdish control. That is, what the government of Damascus is promoting in cooperation with Russia and Iran.
The broader smoothing dynamics
In addition, there is a broader normalization dynamic, with other major countries in the wider region currently moving to re-establish relations with the Damascus government.
This has been shown by the attitude of countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and – more recently – Saudi Arabia. Even Egypt seems to be considering it. All of this creates a climate that objectively puts pressure on Erdogan as well.
The re-approach process
All this shows the importance of the meeting that took place on April 25 in Moscow and which was attended by the defense ministers of Turkey and Syria, Hulusi Akar and Ali Mahmoud Abbas, accompanied by the heads of the security services of the two countries. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Iranian Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Astiani also participated in the discussions.
This meeting was the third of its kind held, with the first having taken place at the end of December 2022.
The announcement of the Turkish Ministry of Defense claimed that the meeting took place in a constructive atmosphere and it is indeed characteristic that for the first time an announcement from the Turkish government publicly used the word “normalization” for the relations between the two countries.
In addition, the two sides discussed how to strengthen security in Syria, deal with armed organizations and intensify efforts to return Syrian refugees to their homes. At the same time, the announcement underlined that “all sides confirmed their respect for the territorial integrity of Syria”.
In addition, the announcement from the Syrian side described the meeting as “positive”. According to the Syrian state news agency, the two sides also discussed the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syrian territory, as well as how to reopen the M4 highway south of Idlib, which is currently controlled by “extremist organizations”. which is considered a decisive step in the normalization of relations between the two countries.
