The risk of widespread conflict in the Middle East to cancel US policy in the region

The fact that Israel and Iran are in direct conflict between the Syrian territory, is drastically increasing the chances of direct military engagement between the two countries. Their straight confrontation has to do with the fact that Iranian soldiers have taken positions in strategic areas on the Syrian territory and are fighting directly with the Israeli Air Force.

The war clashes that took place in the past through representatives of the two countries have ceased to exist since 2018 and after an Israeli helicopter shot down Iranian drone (UAV) that had taken off Iran’s base in Syria.

by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis

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The support for the geopolitical planning of Iran

Unlike Russia and based on its moves so far on the geopolitical chessboard of the Middle East, Iran proves that in Syria it has settled in order to remain there forever. Iran has created in Syria its own telephone network, TV channel and other media respectively with aim to influence public opinion.

In addition, it has placed/established its representatives in the form of settlers together with their families in strategic points in the mainland of Syria in order to create a complete controlled Shiite arc from Tehran to the shores of Mediterranean Sea which arc will always present territorial continuity.

Iran is already controlling Baghdad, stellateing and gradually appending Iraq to its geopolitical sphere of influence.

Russia is aware of all these movements of Iran but prefers to defend its interests by fueling the existence of constant fluid instability in the region, creating the conditions so that each time it appears from a position of power between Israel and Iran. With the deterrence that Russia imposes on Israel in entering with its fighters into the airspace area of Syria, Russia ensuring the continued readiness and protection of Iranian positions in the Syria.

At the same time, Iran to protect its troops and representatives in Syria from the devastating and murderous of Israeli fighters and helicopters, has gradually added to its sphere of influence Lebanon through Hezbollah.

Iran variously supporting Hezbollah-this organisation is the political organization and militia of the Shiites of Lebanon-it manages to participate in the Lebanese government as Hezbollah participates in the Lebanese government. Hezbollah is in constant unofficial war with Israel.

In this way, Iran by controlling the Lebanese government through Hezbollah has transferred its own units and military material to Lebanon.

The gradual implementation of geo-political planning

Perhaps in the future, Lebanon will be used as base attacks against Israel with a view to seeking a military response from Israel to these attacks. In a military response from Israel to Lebanon, Iran will have succeeded in “drawing” Lebanon into a war confrontation with Israel.

Given the US sanctions to date in Iran, which have caused high economic and political costs to the Iranian government and given the US support to Saudi Arabia, which is the energy feeder of the West, as Iran is a corresponding energy feeder of the BRICS  and China, the recent attack with  drone  in the Saudi oil facilities, was a warning tracer threat from Iran to the West.

In this way, Iran has shown in a categorical way to the US and the West in general that if Iran cannot export oil/energy, Saudi Arabia will not be able also to extract it. However, this should be expected from the strategic planners of the USA and the West.

Both Iran and its allies know that US President Donald Trump will not dare to move on to new warfare until the US elections in November 2020, because he greatly counts the political costs that will appear in if the American public opinion sees dead and wounded American soldiers on its television receivers, and when he has been pre-electoral promised to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan.

So, given the strategic political cost avoidance strategy which is applied by the American President and the imposing US sanctions that have brought Iran to its knees, they have led Iran to execute through Houthi fighters in Yemen attacking against Saudi Arabia now making Iran dangerous and decisive.

The continued attacks of Yemen’s Houthi fighters in Saudi Arabia will be stepped up as they continue to be equipped by Iran and China, by dragging Saudi Arabia and its economy into “quicksand”. South Saudi Arabia will turn into a war theatre like Syria, with large potential to hit Saudi Arabia’s tourism sector from future drone attacks in tourist places.

In addition, Iran and always through Yemen’s Houthi fighters will try to sabotage Saudi Arabia’s onshore oil pipelines, disrupting the oil supply and directly hitting Saudi Arabia’s state revenues. Also, Iran to raise the scale of tension in the region could close the Strait of Hormuz prohibiting the transit of oil tankers.

In this way, if Iran’s finger is involved and Lebanon at war with Israel almost all the Middle East region will be a battleground and an expansionism way of Iran.

Since Iran manages to consolidate it acquired in most of the Middle East, the next goal will be Egypt through the support Iran will provide to Libya’s fanatical Islamists to win the war against Field Marshal Khalifa Belqasim Haftar and then supporting the Muslim Brothers of Egypt.

A support for Libyan Islamic fundamentalists who are currently being taken over by Iran’s great ally in the eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, which is allied with Russia and Iran.

In this scenario the entire Middle East (except Israel) will be controlled by Iran and its allies. In fact, the West and US policy will largely be annulled throughout the Middle East, at least until the American elections of 2020, granting control of the Middle East to other forces.