In early November, Americans go to the polls in the midterm elections, which will determine whether the Democrats will continue to control Congress or whether it will pass to the Republicans, blowing up President Joe Biden’s agenda. Maximum turmoil will benefit the Republicans, so one can be sure there will be plenty of it over the next four weeks.
The main field in which the election result will be judged is the field of inflation. Democrats can only hope for electoral survival if they convince the electorate that it is not government policy that is responsible for rising prices, but the power of big corporations taking advantage of the situation. Quite suspicious are the successive closures of refineries ostensibly for maintenance or repairs, after which fuel prices, which had been declining in recent months, went uphill again. But even if the responsibilities are attributed to those who speculate or create artificial shortages, the fact that Joe Biden’s exhortations to lower prices do not deter them exudes an image of weakness, which can cost the Democratic party.
The big package of measures, which after enormous difficulties was passed by Congress in August, includes some measures that try to put the brakes on the “party” by funding the Internal Revenue Service to acquire the proper tools to uncover complex tax avoidance schemes. The measures to strengthen the tax administration are a red flag for Republicans, as shown by their pledges to repeal them as soon as they are back in power.
Republicans are also promising to repeal the provision that finally allows the US government to negotiate drug prices with pharmaceutical companies and which, when implemented in 2026, is set to lead to lower drug spending for the public and private sector.
It is very difficult to connect all this directly to the everyday life of citizens and mobilize large masses of voters in favor of the Democrats. More likely, the opposite is the case, with Republicans increasing their rates by repeating to citizens struggling to pay the supermarket bill that the government has ruined them, that it is sending America’s fossil fuels to Europe when the country could be self-sufficient, and that the themselves are more reliable management of the economy. The White House knows this and is trying in every way to increase the availability of fuel. Joe Biden’s Administration is draining US strategic stockpiles that are at historically low levels and is keenly interested in a deal with former fiend Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela so that the US can once again import oil from Venezuela.
The great hope of the Democrats
The great hope of the Democrats in order to maintain the slim majority of five seats in the House and one seat in the Senate are women and those who disagree with the country’s illiberal turn on the issue of abortion. Since the Supreme Court ruling allowing states to ban abortions, women’s voter registrations have skyrocketed, and the issue is cited in polls as the number one reason for sending otherwise indifferent voters away. at the polls.
The Republican lead narrowed, and much of the Democratic candidates’ campaign was built around the issue. The problem for Democrats is that, according to polls, the number of voters who prioritize the economy is three times higher than those who prioritize abortion.
Russia and OPEC in alliance
At the same time, Russia and OPEC announced production cuts of 2 million barrels per day, aiming to push the price of oil back above $100 a barrel. The expulsion of Saudi Arabia from the group of always reliable allies of America, and its collusion with Russia in this decision, is sure to be a field of Republican criticism of the foreign policy of the white house.
Correspondingly, the fierce criticism that Joe Biden had received after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, contributed to his decision to show a tough profile in the war with Russia, despite the enormous risks that such a conflict entails. But now criticize the Republican candidates who are trying to grab the votes of those who want the war to end as quickly as possible. The use of even low-powered nuclear weapons is a supremely important decision that should normally not be taken by anyone under any circumstances. But if Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to send a nuclear message to the US, it would make sense to do so before the US elections.
What is certain is that North Korean President Kim Jong Un, who is preparing the seventh North Korean nuclear test, thinks so. After a five-year hiatus from nuclear testing, Kim is preparing to show in his own way that diplomacy has failed. A more likely test time, by all indications, is after the Chinese Communist Party congress so as not to upset Chinese President Xi and before the US midterm elections, for exactly the opposite reason.
