Regional rivalries, as well as bilateral conflicts of many years, are resurfacing, with Russia, the US and China engaged in a race to expand their spheres of influence in the 21st century, starting with the Ukraine war.
The crisis that ended in the “last minute” in North Kosovo, the “ritual” visit of the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan, the mobility on the Nagorno-Karabakh front, but also the election campaign in Italy and soon in Moldova represent different versions of the same attempt to rearrange the international system: after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move last February to invade Ukraine, sparks threaten to ignite, for some analysts, the fire of a new Cold War.
Last Sunday’s almost warlike atmosphere in Northern Kosovo was reinforced by the relevant statements of the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, who made it clear that “if they dare to chase and kill Serbs, Serbia will win”. With the West showing immediate reflexes and after the compromise proposal submitted by the US ambassador in Pristina, Jeff Hovenier, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, finally announced a one-month extension of the implementation of the measure, postponing until early September the replacement of the signs, and together with the possible rupture.
The way in which the two parties involved, namely the Serbs and the Albanian-speaking people of Kosovo, whose coexistence constitutes a daily and fragile bet for the wider region, will come to terms will become clear at the first level on the 18th of the month, when Aleksandar Vucic and Albin Kurti will sit at the same table of talks in Brussels, following the invitation of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borel.
Last Sunday’s almost warlike atmosphere in Northern Kosovo was reinforced by the relevant statements of the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, who made it clear that “if they dare to chase and kill Serbs, Serbia will win”. With the West showing immediate reflexes and after the compromise proposal submitted by the US ambassador in Pristina, Jeff Hovenier, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, finally announced a one-month extension of the implementation of the measure, postponing until early September the replacement of the signs, and together with the possible rupture.
The way in which the two parties involved, namely the Serbs and the Albanian-speaking people of Kosovo, whose coexistence constitutes a daily and fragile bet for the wider region, will come to terms will become clear at the first level on the 18th of the month, when Aleksandar Vucic and Albin Kurti will sit at the same table of talks in Brussels, following the invitation of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borel.
The latter holds in his hands the powerful card of the start of the accession process of the two countries for the EU, which Brussels wishes to be the release valve of the sudden tension, except that the planetary orientation, mainly of the Serbs, does not completely align with their future European course. On the contrary, in the person of President Aleksandar Vucic, a large pro-Russian current is expressed that has been lurking inside Serbia for a long time, with its leader explaining because of this that “we hold the Serbian position and pursue a policy in accordance with our national and state interests”, in order to justify his country’s refusal to join the West in imposing economic sanctions on Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine.
At the same time, Serbia increased its energy dependence on Russia even more last May, achieving a particularly favorable agreement for the supply of natural gas, the same period in which the rest of the EU countries were announcing hasty emergency plans to save energy after Gazprom shuts off the tap.
The Russian president invoked the precedent of his independence as an argument for recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008, and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 respectively, at a time when the expansion of Russian influence in the Western Balkans is a watershed moment. of interest to the Kremlin. In this light, Moldova, Georgia and the Serbian part of Bosnia constitute, together with Serbia, vulnerable areas to turmoil in the coming period. Turmoil that in the case of Moldova has already begun to become visible, given that the former president of the country and known for his pro-Russian sentiments, Igor Donton, called for early elections, citing the explosion of natural gas prices.
If Donton’s request is granted, it will be the second election to be held prematurely and under the burden of Moscow’s energy strangulation, after the resignation of Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and the declaration of the start of the pre-election period in Italy. Although sentenced to house arrest on charges of treason and corruption, the former president of Moldova has indicated to the current government that it should hurry to negotiate a bilateral agreement with Moscow on the supply of natural gas, on the model of the one Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is about to sign with Russia by the end of the summer securing – because of his privileged relationship with Putin – 700 million additional cubic meters of natural gas.
In addition to the Kremlin, leaders of the Western Balkans have also developed special relations with Beijing, as in the case of the president of Serbia, who was one of the leaders (including Putin) who went to China at the beginning of last February in order to watch the Winter Olympics live. On their sidelines, Mr Vucic met privately with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as the latter aims to make Belgrade a regional hub for its business in Europe, with the two countries describing each other as “iron friends”.
Moreover, the expansion of China’s trade and business activity in Serbia in recent years has been developing at a frenetic pace, mainly in the fields of infrastructure and trade (it tripled since 2016), while Beijing provided Belgrade with medical equipment and vaccines to fight the coronavirus pandemic. For his part, the Serbian president, who was notably vaccinated with the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine, expressed to his Chinese counterpart that his country will firmly stand by Beijing in the face of issues of vital interest, such as the Xinjiang Autonomous Region or island of Τaiwan.
