Since it could not do what it needed to do in terms of hard power, the EU tries to be projected with the soft power provided by its financial possibilities.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appears to be in favor of upgrading Ukraine to a candidate country, but EU leaders of the “27” who will be at the Summit of 23-24 June in Brussels, express different views.
The President of France, Macron, warns that it will take decades for Ukraine to join and proposes a kind of political union that will facilitate cooperation for strategic reasons with Ukraine, other countries that would like to join the EU, but and the United Kingdom of Brexit.
The Socialist Prime Minister of Portugal, Costa, who is recognized as an experienced and capable political leader, warns that it is better to solve practical issues related to the financial support and reconstruction of Ukraine, than to start legal interpretations and designations “a country with a European perspective”.” On the way to accession negotiations “, which for the coming years will not bring practical results.
For its part, the Polish government has forgotten its Euroscepticism and is fighting to start accession negotiations with Ukraine.
Regardless of whether accession negotiations with Ukraine begin in the near future – a development I do not consider particularly likely – it will take decades for Ukraine to join the EU. Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine was considered one of the most corrupt countries in Europe, and that is not easy to change. Even the hundreds of billions of euros promised by the EU. for the reconstruction of the country in the long run, they are unlikely to take place as long as the so-called oligarchs dominate the economic life of Ukraine.
Therefore, the discussion on a quick start of accession negotiations is not a way to overcome the negative development of the war, as it is certain to bring to the fore contradictions between the “27” governments, contradictions between Kiev and Brussels and will not solve its strategic problem. EU.
In fact, the view is expressed that if the EU pave the way for the accession of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, there may be a tougher military reaction of Russia on the basis of the theory that attempts are being made to “encircle” Russia by rival or even enemy forces. The bitter truth is that the soft power of the EU can not replace the lack of hard power in wartime.
