After 110 days of relentless fighting, Russian troops have occupied about 20% of Ukrainian territory and the two sides are preparing for a long-running conflict. Russia will have to fight hard to consolidate its territorial gains, while Ukraine is determined to reclaim all the territories it has lost since 2014.
A major loss of the war is EU relations. of “27” with Russia. The damage is huge and long lasting. Europeans now see Russia as an aggressive, revisionist force that has blown up post-war stability. The critique of Europeans concerns not only Putin and the regime he has created, but the economic and political system of post-communist Russia in general.
European leaders and citizens are being held accountable for what has happened under Russia’s responsibility since 2008, when Putin’s strategy changed to this day. The war in Georgia, which cost the country 20% of its territory, the invasion of Ukraine and the integration of Crimea in 2014, the destabilizing operations with KGB logic, the targeted assassinations even within the EU, the Hybrid warfare, the conversion of energy into an economic weapon, and the redemptive strategy against the 25 million Russians who found themselves in foreign countries with the dissolution of the Soviet Union are some of the options of the Russian regime that are considered unacceptable.
The tolerance shown by European powers towards Russia after the beginning of the destabilization of Ukraine in 2014 is now definitely a thing of the past.
Political Celebrities such as Chancellor Merkel, who thought she could negotiate with Putin on the basis of mutual interest, or former Chancellor Schroeder, who played a key role in developing German-Russian energy cooperation and became a top Russian energy official. , are considered responsible for strengthening Russia and the Putin regime and for escalating its aggression.
Even in countries such as Greece, which have a traditionally pro-Russian public opinion, there is a major shift in perceptions of modern Russia and a deterioration in the prospect of bilateral cooperation.
Russia’s isolation from the EU has wider extensions. The Europe of the homelands from the Atlantic to the Urals, described by General de Gaulle, in an effort to strengthen France’s international role and European autonomy from the United States, has been overtaken by developments. Russia, without a strong European connection, is obliged to turn in other directions, especially to China, in order to avoid international isolation and all that that entails. China’s economy is ten times the size of Russia’s economy. The Chinese already support Putin and his regime, but they will certainly impose their own terms.
Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia: the new center of gravity of EU
With the war in Ukraine and the escalation of the Russian threat, the role of Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia in the EU is being upgraded. and in NATO. These are countries that have suffered Russian and Soviet domination and are determined to fight to defend their national independence and freedom.
They are militant in their confrontation with Russia and with their interventions set the tone for the reaction of the EU. in total.
The three Baltic Republics have the largest share of Ukrainian armaments to withstand the constant attacks of Russian troops. Poland is doing everything it can to help. It is characteristic that it welcomes in an exemplary way millions of Ukrainians who resort to it in search of security. In the refugee, immigration crisis of 2015-2016, Poland pursued a strict policy and refused to contribute to tackling the crisis. Now, Polish families are hosting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, the local government is leading the way in welcoming them, and the country’s Conservative government has taken a much friendlier stance.
The war is also causing the shift of the strategic center of gravity of the EU.
Germany remains the EU’s major economic power. and the German-French duo largely determines political developments. However, the role of Poland and the three Baltic Republics has been strengthened, as their positions on the Russian threat were justified by the negative developments.
The four countries rely on the American defense “umbrella”, in the role of NATO and do not trust the European defense, nor the so-called strategic autonomy of the EU. against the US, which is mainly supported by France and Greece.
The Prime Minister of Poland, Morawiecki, has publicly supported the Ukrainian leadership and criticized the leaders of “old Europe”, especially Macron, who want to keep in touch with Putin so that future talks can take place.
Countries that are particularly concerned about Russia’s offensive strategy include the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria. Only Orban’s Hungary, from the former Eastern countries, has differentiated in favor of Putin, which brought it into conflict with Poland and led to the inactivation of the Visegrad group, which consists of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Νew round of EU enlargements
EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, starting with Albania and northern Macedonia, is seen as necessary in order to control Russian influence in the region. Serbia is a country with advanced accession negotiations, but the international political facilities it offered to Russia and Putin after the invasion of Ukraine are sure to lead to a tougher EU response. of “27”.
Political momentum has also been created in favor of enlargement to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. The Europeans want to reward Ukraine for its strong resistance to Russian expansion and to contribute to its post-war reconstruction. They also want to stabilize Moldova, which looks like Putin’s next goal, since its most industrially developed Russian-speaking part of Transnistria became autonomous shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia is facing great economic, political and institutional difficulties, while it is certain that it will escalate the confrontation with Russia. Enlargement is likely to be targeted in the near future, but the enlargement process will take 5, 10 or even 15 years, depending on the country.
Turkey seems to be permanently excluded from this process. There are no longer strong supporters of enlargement to Turkey in the European Parliament and in the European institutions in general. This is mainly due to the systematic violation of democratic and human rights by the Erdogan regime.
Judging by the latest report of the European Parliament on EU relations – Turkey, the criticism focuses on the internal organization and policy of the Turkish regime and much less on the revisionism and expansionism of Turkey. Most Europeans still do not believe in the Turkish threat, just as they did not believe in the Russian threat.
