Russia’s gains in southern Ukraine are its most strategically crucial victories. Not only does Putin now have a land bridge to Crimea, allowing for more efficient supplies to the peninsula, but he owns all of Ukraine’s major ports except Odessa. From this position, and with Russian warships policing the Levant Basin and the Black Sea, Putin could squeeze Ukraine economically, curb maritime exports, and force the West to keep Ukraine or endanger its collapse.
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine has already caused economic instability elsewhere. Rising fuel prices have sparked protests in Sri Lanka. North Africa and the Middle East rely on Ukrainian grain and, even before the war, were likely to experience food shortages. The G-7 has warned that the continuing food disruption will trigger crises across the wider Middle East.
As the Israeli-Palestinian conflict simmers, Iran is considering a nuclear capability and the Gulf Arabs reject the United States, the last issue the United States and the West want to address is global food shortages. We must remember the structural conditions before the Arab Spring: food shortages, high unemployment and corruption combined to ignite a social fire. A similar situation may be imminent, especially as inflation spurts in the West and the US and China appear to be on the brink of recession.
NATO will have to deploy naval convoys, similar to those used by the United States to transport food and ammunition to the UK during World War II, if the war continues. Convoy Battles of World War II occurred when convoys of cargo ships assembled for mutual defense, and were attacked by enemy submarines, surface ships, and/or aircraft. Most were in the North Atlantic from 1939 to 1943, and involved attacks by U-boat wolfpacks.
A relatively limited deployment of force, mainly surface ships backed by regular Black Sea aviation and high-altitude fighter drone surveillance, would be sufficient for a company. A Russian strike on a US warship is possible, but as long as the war lasts, Russia will bleed financially and militarily, making such a possibility unlikely.
In essence, NATO has provided tangible military assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion, including critical intelligence support used by Ukraine to plan its attacks, targeting Russian generals (including Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov) and flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
A naval mission to protect merchant ships transporting Ukraine’s exports from the Black Sea is necessary and would be of a similar nature to this intelligence support, which Russia has tacitly accepted despite its nuclear threats.
The role of Turkey is key
Turkey uses a “whip” along with its “carrot” in NATO. After sitting on the sidelines of the Russo-Ukrainian war for a while, Turkey closed the Dardanelles to all warships. Its legal process includes an exemption for Russian Black Sea Fleet warships passing through its port after development – but Russia can not transport additional warships to the Black Sea, thus limiting Russian naval power. In addition, Turkey has served as a valuable interlocutor between Ukraine and Russia — it is essentially the only force trusted by Kyiv and Moscow to host talks — and the Turkish military-industrial complex has produced many of its unmanned aerial vehicles. used in extreme results against Russian forces. In part, Turkey sided with Ukraine and NATO in resisting Russian aggression.
The US should be firmly committed to Turkey with the Atlantic Alliance and use Turkey’s geographical location to expand NATO’s options in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
As an incentive, the United States, in exchange for providing its technology to Turkey, will have to receive Turkish acceptance of NATO naval forces in the Black Sea. At the same time, the United States must ensure that the Turkish Navy assists the Black Sea convoys. This would be an escalating decision on Turkey’s part and could undermine its diplomatic role between Ukraine and Russia – but NATO would receive an overwhelming strategic benefit.
Turkish approval, however, is crucial to this mission. The Biden government should link its push for Turkey’s support for Sweden-Finland NATO membership to this reality, urging Turkey to accept a significant NATO naval development in the Black Sea.
