According to a new study (The Earth’s Future, AGU-Advancing Earth and Space Science-journal) defrosting permanent frost due to climate change could expose the Arctic population to much higher concentrations of radon gas – a natural source of radiation – which causes lung cancer, raising questions about both plans. of the Arctic States, as well as for the growing military activity in the region.
Professor Paul Glover of the University of Leeds and co-author of the study suggest that permanent frost has historically acted as a protective barrier, preventing radon from traveling to the surface and entering buildings, homes and so on.
Radon is an invisible, odorless, naturally radioactive gas that causes about one in 10 lung cancer deaths and affects smokers far more than non-smokers. It causes higher mortality rates in subarctic communities due to the prevalence of smoking.
The study, published in January (31/1/2022) in the journal AGU Earth’s Future, modeled radon production, its flow through soil, permanent frost and buildings – including those with basements and surface basements and those under construction. , more traditionally, on stakes. The modeling shows that in buildings with basements, the presence of radon can increase more than 100 times its original value for up to seven years, depending on the depth of freezing and how quickly it thaws.
This demonstrates the importance not only of keeping the permanent frost layer intact by limiting global warming, but also has important implications for health provision, building codes and ventilation advice.
The presence of a layer of permanent frost was found to act as a radon barrier, reducing surface radiation to one-tenth of the background plane, but increasing the radon concentration behind the barrier by up to 12-fold. This happened for a wide range of depths in the permanent frost layer.
“Radon is known to be the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking, “said Professor Glover, of the Leeds School of Earth and the Environment. up to 4.4 times more common in Arctic communities. Therefore, an unexpected radon cloud could be a dangerous health hazard if not prevented. Fortunately, simple ventilation is often only required if the problem is identified. If permanent ice were stable, there would be no cause for concern. However, it is now widely recognized that climate change is leading to significant permanent frost thawing, with 42% expected permanent frost loss in the Arctic Peripheral Ice Region (ACPR) by 2050. Radon can then pass through permanent ice and lead to the concentration of radioactive gas inside the buildings that take several years to peak and many more to dissolve”.
The publication of The Earth’s Future suggests that thawing the permanent frost barrier does not produce an increase in radon compared to the background level for traditionally constructed buildings in the Arctic community. For underground buildings, thawing permanent frost can cause radon concentrations to remain above the value of 200 becquerels per cubic meter (Bq / m3), which many nations use as a threshold for action for up to seven years. , depending on the depth of permanent frost and the rate of thawing.
Professor Glover added: “Our results clearly show that the closed radon tank can be released into the basements of buildings for a long time and will remain above the levels of radiation for four to seven years. “Given that there has been no perceived historical problem with radon in these communities and the gas itself is undetectable without specialized equipment, we consider this to be a significant and completely avoidable threat to the health of the northern communities.”
Professor Glover points out that these are initial results that had to involve many hypotheses, mainly because there is a significant lack of data on the petrophysical properties of arctic soil and permanent frost. It is possible that radon will find effective paths to the surface through both supply and diffusion and along the preferential thaw zones, while most of the permanent frost thaws more slowly.
Professor Glover is a member of the Institute of Applied Geosciences, Petrophysics and Geomechanics. Their work includes the theory, modeling, measurement and applications of terrestrial materials and processes. He was the founder and first President of the Department of Energy, Resources and Environment of the European Geophysical Union.
The geopolitical dimension of the conclusions of the above study
There is a growing understanding in Russia that thawing permanent frost is a serious problem for infrastructure and industry and complicates Moscow’s ambitious development plans in the Arctic. To date, however, the issue of permanent frost degradation has been absent from official policy documents.
Moscow is now planning to set up a new national monitoring system for permanent frost, as well as amend two federal laws. Within three years, a network of 140 stations will be created for the study of permanent frost. In addition, a laboratory for permanent frost studies – the first of its kind in Russia – will operate directly in the Yamal-Nenets region. It is worth noting that the focus in Moscow remains on adaptation strategies and not on mitigation strategies.
Despite the deterioration of Russia-West relations on other fronts, the negative consequences of the deterioration of permanent frost bind the Arctic states. The Arctic Council, the leading intergovernmental forum on Arctic affairs, is an ideal place for permanent frost to thaw together.
In May 2021, Russia took over the rotating presidency of the Arctic Council for a two-year term. Environmental protection and climate change are high on her presidency’s agenda, with a particular focus on collaborative research, but which is now declining dramatically following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and threats against Finland and Sweden.
During its presidency, Russia would have the opportunity to enhance scientific research and cooperation with other Arctic states and to develop collective approaches to addressing the effects of permanent frost degradation in the region. As suggested by the Arctic Institute, closer interaction is required between the weather observation services of individual Arctic states, with a view to eventually creating an effective global permanent frost monitoring system, although Russia’s involvement in such an infrastructure remains questionable.
The Kremlin already recognizes that thawing permanent frost can have devastating economic as well as environmental consequences. Although Moscow is already seeking adaptation measures for the effects of permanent frost thawing, its emission reduction targets are not ambitious. This is a global concern and emissions reductions will be needed if there is any hope of maintaining areas with permanent ice and preventing tipping points from crossing.
In addition, improved data exchange and scientific cooperation between Arctic states, especially in engineering solutions, will help in risk forecasting and collective management. While the scientific community remains concerned, substantive action can help stem the tide of thawing and alleviate Moscow’s strategic concerns about the region.
Competition for sovereignty and resources in the Arctic is intensifying
Tensions have been rising in the Arctic for years as nations claim claims for shipping lanes and energy reserves that open up as a result of climate change. Now, with the shift in geopolitical order following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, competition for sovereignty and resources in the Arctic could intensify.
On the west coast of Alaska, the federal government is investing hundreds of millions of dollars to expand the port to Nome, which could be converted into a deep-water hub to serve U.S. Coast Guard and Navy vessels sailing in the Gulf of Aden. The Coast Guard expects to develop three new icebreakers – although Russia already has more than 50 in operation.
And while the United States has denounced Russia’s military expansion into the Arctic, the Pentagon has its own plans to increase its presence and capabilities, working to rebuild skills in the cold weather neglected during two decades of war in Iraq. and Afghanistan.
The Air Force has transported dozens of F-35 fighter jets to Alaska, announcing that the state will host “more advanced fighter jets than anywhere else in the world.” The Army last year released its first strategic plan for “Recovering Arctic Sovereignty.” Preparations, however, are costly in terms of both resources and staff.
Russia, whose eastern mainland is just 55 miles along the Bering Strait off the coast of Alaska, has for years prioritized an expanded presence in the Arctic by renovating airports, adding bases, training troops and developing a network of military defenses. systems at the northern border.
With the warming climate shrinking the sea ice in the area, valuable fish stocks are moving north, while the Arctic’s rare minerals and significant fossil fuel reserves are becoming increasingly targeted for exploration. Boat traffic is expected to increase from both trade and tourism.
For centuries, the vast arctic waters of the Arctic have been largely icy dead-land, with precise territorial boundaries – claimed by the United States, Russia, Canada, Norway, Denmark and Iceland – remaining unstable. . But as the melting of the sea ice has opened up new shipping lanes and as nations look at the vast reserves of hydrocarbons and minerals beneath the Arctic, the complex conditions, demands and boundary zones that govern the region have escalated into new disputes.
Canada and the United States have never reached an agreement on the status of the Northwest Passage between the North Atlantic and the Beaufort Sea. China is also working to establish a base, declaring itself an “almost Arctic state” and working with Russia to promote “sustainable” development and the expanded use of Arctic trade routes.
Russia has made it clear that it intends to control the so-called North Sea route off its north coast, a route that significantly reduces the shipping distance between China and northern Europe. U.S. officials have said Russia is illegally demanding permission from other nations to cross, and is threatening to use military force to sink non-compliant ships.
Increasing military activity in the Arctic region is accelerating the thawing of frost and inevitably the release of the aforementioned radon, but also possibly other gases, microorganisms and potential threats, both to local populations and to the military itself.
As geopolitical interest in the Arctic has grown in recent years and the accumulation of troops has intensified year by year, the staffs of the countries involved do not appear to have taken countermeasures to the potentially dangerous consequences that scientists are warning of.
