The war in Ukraine still has many unanswered questions. The main thing is why Russia invaded Ukraine. One of the most common reasons given is the fact that Ukraine could not become a member of NATO.
One of the most common reasons given is the fact that Ukraine could not become a member of NATO. Russia considered this reason a “red line”. In practice, however, Ukraine could no longer become a member of NATO, because the statute of the Western alliance emphasizes that it can not join a country with open territorial issues. Something that was true before, of course. Because of the Crimea.
So what design led to such a decision? With serious consequences for parts of the Russian economy. Although Europe continues to trade with Russia, paying for its oil and gas imports and its ships carrying Russian raw materials, agricultural products and fuel to the four corners of the horizon, Russia’s budget does not feels special pressure. But there is a wider political isolation of Moscow and a blow to the country’s military profile. The invasion, however, was a serious choice with catalytic consequences. So why did the Kremlin risk it? Analyzes of Putin’s alleged “bigotry” and lack of logic in his decisions do not stand as a serious critical analysis.
The invasion was a warning message to everyone that the limits have been exceeded. And that Russia is not going to tolerate any future approximation of its borders. And the message does not concern the South, but mainly the North! With the new technology ships and advanced machinery but also with the opening of roads in the Arctic ice due to the reduction of their thickness, the prospects of exploiting the natural resources there have opened the appetite of many.
To date, Russia has dominated the exploitation of these resources in the north, almost undisturbed. Prominent with the impressive work done in the liquefied natural gas program LNG ARCTIC 2 with contractor TechnipFMC, western (French) interests, and the Italian construction Saipen. The Russian NIPIgaspererabotka is running the program on the Russian side. The project involves the production of natural gas and its liquefaction by sea and exports to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The place is located in Western Siberia, in the Yamal administrative district, west of the Gaydan Peninsula, opposite the island of Novaya Zemlya, in the Kara Sea.
In this whole northern region, and not only, Russia has near the USA, which are quite far, west of the island of Diomedes, ie in Alaska. Nowhere else is there a NATO force on the horizon. But if Finland and Sweden decide to join the Western alliance, Russia will be surrounded by the North. At the risk of jeopardizing the exclusivity of its holdings as well as their smooth transfer to international markets.
The attack on Ukraine is therefore a clear warning to the West (to both countries) that Moscow will not accept another NATO presence near its territories. A warning that clearly includes the worrying message of total conflict.
