The course of military operations is not what Putin would like. Nevertheless, Russia has the advantage and, except for the shocking unexpected, will reach the victory, the dimensions of which, however, are difficult to determine from now on.
The Ukrainians gained international admiration and appreciation with a flexible and effective defense and their ability to leverage the anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems offered to them by the Americans, the British and the Europeans.
The Russians seemed rather sketchy in the first phase of the campaign, with their greatest weaknesses manifested in the low quality of the middle cadres and the lack of discipline at the army base.
Several generals were lost going to the front line to coordinate the middle cadres. According to the Ukrainians in the areas through which Russian troops passed, but also from information obtained from telephone interceptions, many Russian soldiers are more interested in looting than in their involvement in military operations.
Experts distinguish three phases in the development of Russian military operations. In the first phase they went for quick results and occupation of large urban centers to completely detune the Ukrainians and cause the fall of the government.
They failed, so they moved on to the second phase, emphasizing their superiority in artillery and missile systems. They began hitting Ukraine’s basic infrastructure and leveling its cities to strain Ukrainian defenses and limit their own losses. It is estimated that in order for attackers to prevail in an urban center with a well-organized defense, they must have a 6 to 1 advantage and be prepared to suffer heavy losses.
The Russian troops have now entered the third phase of their operations. They carry the brunt of the effort to the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine and do not seem to be in a hurry, believing that time is on their side.
They develop their forces on the basis of the Dnieper River which is the only natural obstacle to their development and essentially separates the ⅔ country το from the ⅓ that the Russians seek to occupy. They also use the railway network to transport troops and especially armor, after the negative experiences they had in the greater Kiev area.
The general assessment is that Mariupol has been lost to the Ukrainians and that the Russians are extending their control to strategically important areas and urban centers, aspiring to occupy Odessa as well. The Ukrainians need – at this stage – different, more sophisticated weapons systems to be able to deal with the Russian “roller” and then expand some of their successful counterattacks.
The course of the Hybrid War
The war being waged is hybrid, in the sense that it is not limited to military operations.
Putin uses the weapon of the refugee currents on a much larger scale than Erdogan.
Ten million Ukrainians, about ¼ of the population, have already taken refuge, with 4 million of them fleeing abroad. In this way, the conditions of great European pressure are created again, and possibly destabilization.
At present, the reception of refugees, especially in Poland, can be considered exemplary. But that may change when it is found that most refugees have come to stay, as the continuation of the war precludes a quick return to their homeland.
In addition, in the coming weeks, refugees from Ukraine who do not have much mobility and middle-class characteristics – like the first millions – are expected to make their appearance in neighboring countries, making it more difficult to adapt without tension to the new situation.
In addition to refugees, Putin masterfully uses propaganda. It has convinced Russian public opinion that it is not waging a war against Ukraine, but a “special military operation” to “de-Nazify” it.
His next target is international public opinion, which is trying to convince him that the ongoing food crisis is not due to the war that is limiting the productive potential and foreign trade of Russia and Ukraine, but to the economic sanctions imposed by the US and the EU at the expense of Russia.
With the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, decided by Putin, we entered a dark period of long duration of war and longer duration of international crisis.
