Following the final occupation of the cities of Izum and Mariupol by Russian forces, the Russian Staff is ready to move on to the next phase, which is the destruction of the Ukrainian force of 70,000 men in the Donbas, through double overruns from the north and south. The Russians made Ukrainians and Westerners face a dilemma.
The dilemma
Or to concentrate all their reserves and most of the Ukrainian army for the defense of the capital of Ukraine-Kyiv, or leave Kyiv relatively un fortified and send most of their army to defend Donbass.
Occupying a city of 6 million, such as Kyiv, with a non-Russian-speaking population would not yield any real gains to Russia, except for the complete surrender of Ukraine, but it would be very difficult for the Russian army to control the capital in the long run.
Given that Ukraine anchored its reserves in the capital and did not send reinforcements to Donbas, the deception or maneuver in the field of tactics paid off for Russia.
Now the Donbass front has been blocked and 70,000 Ukrainians are trapped in a pocket that the Russians can now “close”. The Ukrainians are trying to gather all the police forces in the intermediate areas between Kiev and Donbass and send them to the war zones to reinforce the troops.
The Ukrainian leadership aspires to gather about 20,000 men. But things are very difficult for the Ukrainians as they have started to have serious problems with ammunition and fuel, as the Russian Air Force has been patient for a month and something is destroying the supply chains of the Ukrainians. The result has begun to appear on the battlefield.
The Russian forces did not retreat to the Kiev front, but rearranged. They closed the roads from Kyiv to Donbas. They achieved what they wanted, with the dilemma posed by the placement of Russian forces on the battlefield, which based on the choice of the Ukrainians is now the defense of the capital, at the cost of the siege of Dobas by Russian troops, without the Ukrainians they can send aid to it.
Russia’s above-mentioned strategy was achieved, with the Russian forces numbering 200,000 men, where, by maneuvering and deceiving, they managed to deceive 600,000 Ukrainian Army. “The Russians have adopted an improved version of the American Desert Storm operation, fixing superior Ukrainian forces.”
The conclusions
We conclude, therefore, that the Russian siege of Kiev for the past three weeks was intended to commit Ukrainian forces and reserves to the protection of the Ukrainian capital.
Thus, Russia was able to conduct large-scale operations in the East and South of the country. The result is that Russia is now redeploying its forces by transferring aid from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and the Russian hinterland. At the same time, Ukrainian forces are scattered, trapped and exhausted.
The US Pentagon has said that only 20% of the Russian forces on the Kiev front are being redeployed and that a major Russian offensive is under way in other parts of Ukraine.
Satellite images show that the Russians have set up a large military base in the Chaplynka area of Kherson. Helicopters, Armoyred Battle tanks have been transported while fortifications have been created. This base will be the center of Russian operations in Southeastern Ukraine.
Certainly, the Russian war strategy will be taught in the war textbooks in Ukraine – 200,000 vs. 600,000.
The maneuvering strategy of Russia
Since Moscow was not going to bet on the enemy’s damage, it had to maneuver in the conduct of hostilities.
In a maneuvering strategy, the psychological rather than the physical aspect always prevails. And it focuses mainly on the tactical, not the strategic level. Thus, the Russian army needed to form a theater of operations that was convenient for itself. To do this, the Russians had to control how Ukraine would use its numerically superior powers, while sharing its own combat power to achieve its goals.
In Russia’s strategic plan, in order to facilitate maneuvering between the southern, central and northern fronts, it was necessary to build a land bridge between Crimea and the Russian Federation. And control of Mariupol was a crucial factor in those efforts.
Multilateral Russian companies – Reminiscent of “Desert-Storm”
At the same time, it was impossible to allow the higher numerical forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to have the opportunity to stop the operation in Mariupol. That’s why the Russian attack pinned down the main Ukrainian concentration of forces in the east, and drove them away from Mariupol, which was stripped and reduced.
This was done using many strategic support operations:
1. side maneuvers,
2. anchoring operations,
3. and deep attacks.
We are talking about the concept of false maneuvering – something similar used by the US military during the famous Operation “Desert Storm”. A Marine landing force then threatened the coast of Kuwait, forcing Iraq to defend itself against an attack that never came, and the 1st Cavalry Division actually attacked Wadi al-Batin to suppress the Republican Guard.
The maneuvers of deception of the Russian Army
A similar maneuver was excellently implemented in Ukraine and Russia.
1. Τhe amphibious Russian forces off Odessa pinned down the Ukrainian Armed Forces stationed there.
2. Τhe false attack in Kyiv forced Ukraine to strengthen the defense of the capital. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces missed the opportunity to send large numbers of military personnel to the east, to Donetsk and Lugansk.
Ukraine has amassed an estimated 60,000 to 100,000 troops in the Donbas region. Russia, on the other hand, has launched a large-scale offensive to keep these forces on full alert and to cage them at this point, depriving them of the possibility of maneuvering in conjunction with other Russian actions.
3. And the support of the company from the territory of the Crimea and the establishment of control in Kherson extended only the land corridor that was created.
4. Τhe Russian military carried out penetrating strategic attacks aimed at destroying the logistics, command and control of the Ukrainian army, as well as the air force and the support of large-scale fire.
The situation of the Ukrainian Army
As a result, today the Armed Forces of Ukraine run out of fuel and ammunition, the army can not coordinate maneuvers and has virtually no fighters. And this should also be considered a sure success for the Russian troops.
