The question that is asked is completely justified, not only in the analyzes and articles that are heard and written, but also in common and everyday discussions about when and how the war in Ukraine will end. More and more people realize that neither side has the ability to achieve a decisive victory against the other and thus impose its political will. The military quagmire with the absence of major military operations and the political stalemate that already exists seems to be continuing alongside Russia’s war of attrition which, like it or not, is taking down Ukraine.
The statement by the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haynes, about “a catastrophic war in which neither side has a definitive military advantage”, although not widely publicized, is typical and reflects the current situation.
At the same time, the not-so-accidental leak of classified documents in the US informed the world public opinion that the war in Ukraine is not going well, confirming the aforementioned, even if they were followed by statements that tried to soften the impressions created.
The more hyped and delayed the much-heralded Ukrainian spring offensive (rather than counteroffensive), the more reservations arise about the adequacy of force and means, and of course what it might actually achieve. Small-scale operations on a tactical-local level like in Bahmut in the last two days do not at all constitute a …strategic attack!
With the element of surprise now gone there are now serious reservations about whether this aggressive comeback could ultimately fulfill the strategic goals set by Kiev, which consists of recapturing all Russian-held territory of Ukrainian territory and thus solve the intractable equation “so that Ukraine does not lose, so that Russia does not win”.
On May 11, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself, in an interview with international media, confirmed these problems and said that his country needs more time to prepare for this attack, realizing that a failed attack could to destroy even what Ukraine has achieved in this war imposed on it by Moscow.
The possible outcomes of a Ukrainian attack include defeat and loss of additional territory, or at least tactical success of no value and substance. In such an eventuality, the prestige of Ukrainian diplomacy in possible negotiations will have decreased compared to its current weight.
For its part, Russia did not achieve the decisive victory in the least possible time and at the least possible cost as it sought to impose its political will on Ukraine. However, its territorial gains are not negligible. It has occupied territories amounting to 20% of the total territory of Ukraine and includes, in addition to most of Donbas, a wide territorial coastal zone connecting Crimea by land via Melitopol, Mariupol and Donbas to Russia while simultaneously depriving Ukraine of its Sea Azov, while it has also blocked its sea outlet to the Black Sea.
The Russian forces have stabilized the front which extends for a length of about 1,200 kilometers and have defensively organized the whole area with a number of fortifications and other obstacles and everything shows that they have ordered their forces in such a way in anticipation of the attack of the Ukrainian forces to destroy them instead of attacking themselves. Maybe they’ve learned their lesson.
American agencies estimate that Russia can, despite the sanctions that have hit but not brought its economy to its knees, finance the war for at least another year, even if additional sanctions are imposed. Also, according to estimates from independent Western sources, the economic and political elite in Russia still support Putin in the war he is waging in Ukraine, while 60-70% of Russian citizens are so far favorable.
With these data, Putin has turned the war into a protracted war of attrition by “betting” on the gradual weakening of the will of the Ukrainians to continue the struggle (which, of course, has not succeeded so far) and on the reduced resilience of the West in terms of solidarity and continuing to support Ukraine. After all, this is what the survey of the European Council for Foreign Affairs (ECFR) shows two months ago. It’s just that Russia is desperate to find an artificial definition of “victory” to end the quagmire in Ukraine.
The war in the sense of no military operations is likely to end by the end of the year, which will coincide with another harsh winter. But what we “fear” is that this way we sink into an even bigger quagmire and enter into a frozen conflict that could at any moment turn into a hot one with unspecified consequences.
Some wars do not end or are slow to end like the one in Ukraine because the warring leaders believe that by continuing to fight, rather than moving towards a political solution, they ensure a more beneficial outcome. But a war ends either when one side achieves a decisive victory and imposes its will on the other, or when its continuation costs far more than the cost of the concessions and compromises that will end it.
Ukraine is bleeding and more and more destroyed while prolonging the war favors Putin. America, like it or not, is an involved party, and along with strengthening Ukraine, it should look for an exit strategy with its European allies, even if Poland and the Baltic States oppose it. The same should be done without maxims by Russia, primarily as an aggressor country, understanding the impasse it is creating.
First of all, the request is to lead the parties to a de-escalation and then to investigate, as I have many times supported, the possibility of a cessation of hostilities and the implementation of a Korean 1953-style armistice, which will allow for a meaningful dialogue in the second phase. Not all wars end with permanent peace settlements. The Korean War ended in an armistice and the Yom Kippur War in 1973 led to “disengagement agreements”, which in the case of Israel and Syria are still in place.
Either with the support of the Chinese initiative as French President Macron has also requested, or with a parallel Western initiative that could ultimately converge with the Chinese one, the search for the end (end game) is required. If left to its own devices we will find ourselves in a long frozen conflict with no victory, no peace that could break out at any moment.
