The West’s desire to maintain pressure on Russia after the end of the war affects the “big picture” of Russia’s involvement in the conflict, either directly by deploying troops on the ground, such as in Syria, or by proxies. (proxy), as in Libya, mainly through the Kremlin-controlled private company Wagner Group, which has mercenaries in various parts of the world. Recent developments on these two fronts have raised concerns of wider diversion.
First, it is confirmed that the pressure on Russia will continue at all levels after the end of the war. As mentioned, this pressure, in addition to the economic field, will extend to fronts that involve Russia, such as Libya and Syria.
The Libya front
News coverage of the Libyan front leads to the conclusion that a new outbreak cannot be ruled out. Will it be the result of the desire of forces allied with Turkey, in an effort to prevent the emergence of a government that will not continue the pro-Turkish policy of Dbeiba?
General Haftar’s forces are backed by the Russians, whom Washington wants to expel from Libya. But they are supported by both Egypt and the United Arab Emirates at least. Will the process of restoring Turkey-Emirati relations help Ankara to adopt a compromise, or will Erdogan not hesitate to act in the interests of both Abu Dhabi and Moscow, cooperating with the US? But Washington, while seeking the elimination of the Russian presence from Libya, does not want to disrupt relations with Egypt and the Emirate.
It remains to be seen how the US will try to balance its interests in Libya among the multiple stakeholders. They seek to persecute the Russians, whose presence does not bother all the protagonists.
Τhe Syrian front
The second front is the Syrian one. The West will seek to pressure Russia to withdraw from Syria. But there is no way to do it. The Assad regime has stabilized thanks to Russian intervention, so Moscow is more likely to have the upper hand there. There are, of course, other stakeholders. In addition to Turkey, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the equation includes Iran.
Negotiations with Tehran on a new nuclear deal are ongoing and many believe it is just around the corner. This is not a desirable development for Israel as it geopolitically upgrades a country that the Israelis consider a threat to their national security. If sanctions are lifted, Iran could replace Russian oil in the European market.
The Gulf monarchies also have problems with Iran, but they do not want a complete rupture with Tehran. The goal of the Israelis is to remove Iran from the region, not Russia! That is, they have a priority to end the Shiite-Iranian influence in Syria and Lebanon. But that was also the content of the agreement reached between Jerusalem and Moscow! The United States (which also wants to oust the Russians), the Gulf monarchies, and Egypt are also seeking to remove Iran from the region. Russia was not friendly to the Iranian presence, hence the “negotiation” with the Israelis.
Developments on the Russia-Ukraine front thus have a decisive impact on the “big picture” with an emphasis on developments in Libya and Syria.
And all this, apart from the not at all unlikely possibility, the impossibility of finding a ceasefire agreement and gradual disengagement in Ukraine, will lead to escalation elsewhere. The Black Sea region is running. This would lead to major land and naval complications for NATO-affiliated countries, which are on the main route of support for the forces supporting Bulgaria and Romania.
