China has taken a particularly lenient stance toward Russia, with leaders in Beijing trying to hedge their bets. This war was very bad for Beijing’s operations, posing a risk to the Belt and Road vision. Moscow’s adventure in Ukraine has forged the very geopolitical environment, that is, the western strategic unity, which China desperately wanted to avoid.
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has said all the right things to support Russia, its alleged strategic partner. Chinese officials have repeatedly blamed Russian propaganda, refusing to describe the unprovoked attack on Ukraine as a “war” or “invasion”, while echoing the Kremlin’s claim that NATO expansionist aspirations are the root cause of the conflict.
But China’s actions tell a different story, underscored by the Foreign Ministry’s March 9 announcement that the Chinese Red Cross is providing nearly $ 800,000 in humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The amount is small, but the gesture is important in the current context: Chinese leaders are offsetting their geopolitical bets.
It was just a month ago that Russian leader Vladimir Putin met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The two issued a joint statement describing bilateral relations as “superior to the political and military alliances of the Cold War era” and co-operation as “without limits”.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, however, China’s attitude towards Russia has been cautious and restrained, with its officials declaring solidarity with Russia without pursuing the substance. Before Russian troops attacked, Chinese officials spoke out against Western sanctions.
But as soon as the United States and the European Union began imposing sanctions and disconnecting Russian banks from the SWIFT financial network, China’s leading financial institutions began to quietly comply with the restrictions.
Another part of the Putin-Xi statement of February 4 provides a picture of China’s “say one thing, do another” approach to Russia: The two countries argued for a “need for unification, not division of the international community, a need for cooperation, not controversy “.
He goes on to say that the two are “opposed to the return of international relations to the state of confrontation between great powers”.
Just weeks after these sentiments were published, Putin unilaterally decided to blow up the post-World War II order, ushering in a new era of geopolitical confrontation that may prove to be as full of the Cold War. Putin’s impulsive actions also fuel a Western economic crusade against Russian-style anti-liberalism.
Xi is likely to be embarrassed and used by Putin, and Chinese officials alike can not help but worry that, given the restored unity of the West, China’s global economic interests and geopolitical ambitions are about to suffer. It is no surprise, then, that China has been a vocal advocate of ending the war. This conflict is very bad for Beijing’s operations.
Economic inequality in China’s relationship with Russia is another factor behind China’s lukewarm response to Russia at a time of extreme economic need for the Kremlin. In terms of trade, Russia is a later thought for China, as it accounts for only 2% of China’s total trade turnover. As China increases its trade volume with Russia amid stifling Western sanctions, it will do so by imposing humiliating terms on its supposed friend by buying energy, for example, at bargain prices.
China’s strategic partnership with Russia has been beneficial to China only to the extent that it could widen the gap between the US and the EU, thus creating room for continued Chinese economic expansion. This key pillar of the partnership has now collapsed: Putin’s adventure in Ukraine has forged the very geopolitical environment, that is, the Western strategic alliance that China desperately wanted to avoid. Almost overnight, Russia has been transformed from an asset into a major disadvantage for China.
Although unmistakable, the message that Xi sends to Putin with China’s apparent reluctance to financially support Russia is: “It’s nothing personal, it is strictly business.”
