The situation for Ukrainians is marginal. Undoubtedly, the performance of the Russian army is disappointing, despite the congratulations it received from President Putin. The advance is slow, vehicles are immobilized due to lack of fuel and damage, soldiers loot food and winter clothing, lose their destination and some refuse to go to the front. The Ukrainian air force, made up of what it inherited from the Soviet Union and has not rotted, is still flying.
On the other hand, this does not mean that Ukrainians have a good chance of success. Just more than they had a few days ago. Ukraine is now paying, as in 2014, for its voluntary disarmament. When it became a state it inherited the elite of the Soviet army. But they let their armed forces be devalued. Also, when neighboring countries turned to democracy and Western institutions, Ukrainians remained loyal to the Russians, with whom they have historically and culturally very close ties.
It soon became apparent that as long as their western neighbors were making tremendous strides in growth and prosperity, they remained stagnant in the 1990s, essentially subjects of the authoritarian Putin regime. The more they sought freedom and a better quality of life, the tighter the yoke. Popular discontent led to the uprising and the ouster of Putin’s puppet government. Taking advantage of the non-existence of the Ukrainian army and the reluctance of the West, he, in turn, occupied Crimea and some eastern provinces which have a large percentage of Russian-speakers.
Since then, talks and hostilities have taken place. Ukraine tried to improve its armed forces somewhat, but it was not easy. Some thought it was useless, because whatever they did would be a drop in the ocean again. Some say that diplomacy should speak and that further armaments would anger President Putin and be counterproductive. There were also technical difficulties. Many countries (including NATO) did not want to sell significant weapons systems to avoid irritating Putin.
Τhere is no supermarket where you buy weapons and build an army overnight. This is a long process, which inevitably creates conditions of dependence on the supplier.
The situation of the Ukrainian army is definitely better than in 2014. Information also began to be leaked that a small amount of secret recruitment had taken place before the start of the operations, so it was better than we initially expected. Larger-scale mobilization was not carried out earlier because, despite US warnings, the Ukrainian leadership was unconvinced (rumors say that even high-ranking Russian Foreign Ministry officials were equally surprised), and because they did not want to provoke Putin.
But the fact remains that their navy is non-existent, and the rest of the equipment of Soviet origin. From a population of 40 million, a significant number of men and women can be recruited. But an assault rifle and two Molotov cocktails do not make a soldier. All of us in one morning can learn the solution jointing a gun and push the trigger when it is full of magazine, it will be armed and unlocked. This will not make us soldiers. And a set of such people is not an army.
Movements of mass supply of weapons to anyone who wants to fight, are movements of panic. The only practical value, apart from propaganda, is the proliferation of weapons that may be useful in a guerrilla war. Many were found with weapons that have neither education nor mental balance. Some who just got it to sell on the black market, and some to make their underworld work easier. Some of them are Russophiles and intend to use them against them.
These people may be brave, but they are not soldiers. But the cemeteries are full of heroes. The aim is to destroy the enemy, and let us be in a basement 1,000 km away, not to sacrifice. Untrained at the front are targets, they will need protection from combat units that could be elsewhere, create unnecessary pressure on the logistics system and fill hospitals.
On the field, the Russians, slower than expected and with more losses, are coming. Kiev did not fall in 48 hours, as many have said, nor will it fall quickly if it defended itself from house to house, because it is a large city, densely built, with a river and railways separating it, and has an extensive network of subways and sewers that allow defenders to move. safely away from prying eyes.
But the key point is Zaporizhia and not in Kiev. Kiev and fall, will be a symbolic heroic defeat. The government will go elsewhere, possibly to Lviv, and continue. The failed Russian operation in Kiev was not about occupying the city. All information indicates that this is a special reconnaissance operation in cooperation with the secret services aimed at arresting the Ukrainian government, similar to the operation carried out by the Soviets in 1968 to capture the Czechoslovak government.
The difference is that now the Ukrainians were more suspicious, because they know first hand the tricks of the USSR, and because now NATO sensors are monitoring the whole area, while the Czechoslovaks were alone, blind. And that is exactly the reason why he landed under such dangerous conditions and Zelinski appeared on TV in shock and stated that he was the target of a murder. Now, little by little, regular forces have begun to approach Kiev.
In the East, which is the main front for Ukrainians, they are enduring. In the South, the Russians have made the most progress. The Ukrainians counterattack and close holes, but as time goes on, the chances of maneuvering and counterattacking decrease.
In all of this the situation is chaotic because the two adversaries have common systems and speak a similar language, which in combination with the low training of many soldiers and communication and command problems, lead to mistakes. The reports of kissing positions on both sides are constantly increasing.
How many of the Ukrainian citizens, but also of the rest of the European citizens in general, can distinguish the Russian or Chinese vehicles, planes, ships from their respective countries? Is it difficult to develop an application that everyone will have on their mobile phone and in a game style that would train them in it?
Even the huge “Z” in Russian vehicles is not enough. Aside from the fact that a lot of thought and money is invested in developing camouflage and when you go to war, you put a huge badge on it to be better targeted by the enemy. Unlike Kiev, as soon as Zaporizhia falls, which is attacked from three axes, then the Ukrainian army will be cut off and it will be a matter of time before its supplies run out. Then it will self-dissolve / surrender and the selected forces will go into a state of guerrilla warfare. It is a safe assessment that there is relevant training and organization with crypts, observatories and operation zones.
Ukraine had to make a very difficult decision before the Russian invasion. To defend all over the country or to leave the east and to defend along the Dnieper. The disengagement of the Ukrainian army and the organization of a second line of defense will be a titanic task. Ukrainians have people in reserve, but they need time to train, they do not have heavy equipment and vehicles. Civilian vehicles will obviously be deployed and will fight by setting up ambushes or in residential areas, with what this means for civilian casualties, using the large number of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles coming from the West. Weapon systems that have exceptional power and require minimal training. (for more about the modern guerrilla warfare in the urban areas please read the analysis entitled “Infantry Soldier: The “Fundamental Weapon System of the 21st Century” – War in Ukrainian Cities“).
Is the solution to the liberation of Ukraine to increase the firepower of every soldier? Small and agile forces with heavy weapons, as well as forces that will target on behalf of artillery and aviation, will cause disaster. Are riflemen slowly being replaced by heavily armed civilian soldiers?
Consider that for the same strike that traditionally may have required thirty commandos to cross behind enemy lines and return, with all the risk and logistical need of such a multi-person move, it may be enough. a couple or a group, if they have the right equipment. We must not risk the staff if there is an alternative. Let the other witnesses for their homeland. An artillery observer can be more deadly than a company. That is, if you have an artilleryman and an observer who knows what he is doing, and a way to communicate safely with each other.
The Russians are now securing the corridors they control and will be able to launch more organized attacks in a few days. But time works against them. The less successful there is, the more incompetent they seem, which will make the chair of many squeak, and the more encouraged their enemies become more and more daring.
They are also in danger of embarking on a long-term campaign in which the adventure in Afghanistan will look like a healthy walk. So logically they have to look for a way to unhook without showing that they have been defeated, and for President Putin to hope that with his well-known tactic of “doing black and white” and changing the meaning of words he will survive politically. They need a truce to save time and not resent. On the other hand, Ukraine is in danger of seeing its best troops cut off in Kharkov and Mariupol. A truce would give her the opportunity to supply them and perhaps bring them to the Dnieper.
In the long run, Ukraine will become an increasingly powerful and more difficult adversary. The West will continue to send material and train Ukrainians in increasingly complex systems. If Putin does not bring her to her knees now, she will never succeed. The stronger Ukraine becomes, the more intransigent it will be and the more difficult it will be for President Putin to disengage.
Russia has already deployed 80% of its forces in the region and another 10% is on its way. Not even half of its units have been involved in the companies yet, but that’s all. After that, the only reserves will be military and civilian vehicles. Replenishing equipment losses is estimated to be not so easy and immediate, judging by the current production rate and the embargo it accepts. Rifles, of course, will not be lacking, but the more complex a weapon system is, the more extensive the necessary supply chain is, as long as a humble screw is missing to keep it from working.
The choice to invade Ukraine was a historic mistake that would plague the region and the planet for years, but it was also the best gift Putin could give to his enemies, both external and internal.
Our Russian friends, who have two drams of mind and are not sprayed, have a bitter taste in their mouth. The patriotic duty says that they must support their army, but logic says that a Russian victory will hurt both their Ukrainian friends and themselves and their families. Because they will remain under the authority of an authoritarian leader, isolated and targeted by the outside world, with hopes for peace, development, and prosperity diminishing. Internet messaging channels are increasingly calling for the removal of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
