Russian President Vladimir Putin has organized Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has organized Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine for specific reasons that serve his own strategy for the smooth continuation of his rule.
The new narrative of Vladimir Putin
Incumbent Russian President Vladimir Putin has been in power for 20 years and it is clear that he is having a hard time leading Russia into the future. Its economic and social development is hampered by the nature of the regime. The Kremlin-controlled oligarchic kleptocracy is looting the country and the future of its citizens. The composition of the oligarchic kleptocracy may change depending on the President of Russia and his personal choices, but the system remains the same.
It runs a vast country with vast wealth resources without being able to contribute to its comprehensive economic development.
Exports of natural gas, oil, strategically important minerals and metals are still a major force in the Russian economy. Its strength is at the same time its weakness because one would expect all this money to have been invested in other sectors of the economy. In recent years the living standards of most Russians have been stagnant or even declining. The difficulties in everyday life and the oppressive characteristics of the regime have led to the first reactions of the emerging civil society.
Vladimir Putin with a professional background in the Soviet Union’s intelligence services leaves nothing to chance. Opponents are killed, poisoned, disappeared or imprisoned. However, he is quite experienced and understands that the oppression of the population is never the solution, he just provides time for the regime.
The time that Vladimir Putin gains by systematically oppressing the Russians, he invests in the new narrative that he is shaping. Russia was humiliated by the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the West surrounded it with aggressive moods and now is the time to show Russian greatness again.
The main goal was the “liberation” of the 25 million Russians who slept like Soviets and the next morning woke up, due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, foreign nationals. Eight million of them are in Ukraine of 43 million, which is why he chose this country as a field of aggressive action to highlight the new narrative of power. So he goes for a lifelong dictator investing in Russian nationalism and redemption.
The system of power of Russia and the President of Russia
Vladimir Putin may seem like the ultimate boss of Russia’s power system, but each system has its demands. He knows that if the occupation of a large part of Ukraine and parts of other countries create serious problems in the operation of the system he may lose his position.
New system administrators will emerge who promise less upheaval and better results. He begins his difficult mission, estimating that for a long time time will be on his side.
First, he argues with his associates and those in the system that “colorful” revolutions in other countries could eventually lead to regime change in Russia. Since 2014, when it annexed Crimea and helped Russian-speaking separatists take control of eastern Ukraine, it has been portraying the pro-European Ukrainian revolution as an attempt by fascist and even Nazi circles to launch an attack against Russia itself.
Obviously Russia has never been in danger from Ukraine. But it is clear that if there is a European development of Ukraine with a fairly successful and democratic regime, the Kremlin’s oligarchic kleptocracy will find itself in a rather difficult position.
The determination with which Vladimir Putin supported Lukashenko in Belarus following the popular uprising sparked by the presidential election and the rapid deployment of Russian troops in Azerbaijan following unrest message of protecting the regime from “colorful” revolutions.
For Vladimir Putin and the Russian system of power, any attempt at democratization is part of an international conspiracy with the ultimate goal of regime change in Russia. Therefore, the leader of Russia can wait for the tolerance or even the support of the regime executives for a long time. It intervenes militarily to address future threats to the regime.
The resilience of the Russian economy
The second reason why Vladimir Putin feels he has considerable time to develop his strategy is to stabilize the Russian economy. It may not have developed it fully and there is popular dissatisfaction with rising prices and interest rates, but in general the Russian economy is well prepared for the trials to come.
Foreign exchange reserves are estimated at $600-650 billion. The public debt has been minimized and the financial management is quite strict and efficient. In addition, we are in a phase of rising international prices for gas and oil as well as many raw materials and minerals. Therefore, it can subsidize for a few years the maintenance or even the slight improvement of the living standard of the Russians despite the international pressures that will be accepted by the Russian economy.
The insatiable system of power is not in immediate danger of losing its super-profits and outrageous privileges.
The “inability” of the West to confront him
Due to his professional background in intelligence services, Vladimir Putin has a very good knowledge of Germany, European countries and their weaknesses. He was able to get what he wanted from Merkel, up to the NordStream 2 gas pipeline. .
His basic assessment seems correct if we take into account the difficulty of European leaders in coming to terms with each other and the additional difficulties and obligations that the electoral cycle creates in the governments of democracies. For example, any attempt to reduce energy dependence on Russia could result in rising fuel prices and falling government popularity. On the one hand, the governments of European countries are suffering from Russia’s dominant energy position, on the other hand, they face with awe the possible political cost of the difficult detoxification effort.
Vladimir Putin also knows that the EU has not been politically united nor is this going to happen in the near future. He can play undisturbed with the contradictions between Europeans. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is running in a difficult political election on April 3, and a few weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he made statements in favor of Vladimir Putin’s policy in Ukraine during his visit to Moscow. According to him, good bilateral relations have protected Hungary from the increase in the price of gas.
For his part, Serbian President Vucic, who is supposed to be in a hurry for his country to join the EU. refrained from condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine and declared solidarity with the EU.
The US withdrawal from the world stage and the “gap” they leave
Vladimir Putin did not suddenly attack Ukraine, his initiative is part of a broader strategy that he has been implementing effectively for fifteen years.
In 2008 he mutilated Georgia in favor of Russian-speaking separatists in Abkhazia and Ossetia. In 2014, it annexed Crimea and mutilated Ukraine through Russian-speaking separatists in the Donbas region. Since the middle of the last decade, it has militarily covered the Assad dictatorship in Syria, securing its dominance in the hard-fought civil war that began in 2011 in exchange for permanent Russian military bases and strengthening its influence in Syria and the wider region. This was followed by the planned rivalry with Erdogan, the spectacular strengthening of the Russian military presence in Libya and in various African countries.
Therefore, Vladimir Putin unfolds his strategy step by step, noting each time the absence of the Western allies or their reluctance to get involved in extremely unpleasant situations.
He can not be sure of the limits of Western submissiveness, but he has found that he even reached the general attack on Ukraine almost undisturbed. Vladimir Putin is always moving, always keeping in mind the reactions of the USA and China.
Incumbent President Joe Biden is far more experienced in international politics than Trump, which is why Vladimir Putin is preparing for a fairly effective US response. However, he believes that the power of Joe Biden is not very stable due to the old age of the President and the prospect that the Democrats will lose, by far, the by-elections in November.
If, as it turns out, they lose a majority in the US legislature, President Biden’s freedom of movement will be restricted and Donald Trump’s supporters, who want to leave Vladimir Putin virtually undisturbed, will be discouraged. “America first”.
As for China, Vladimir Putin knows he is on the side of Ukraine. China also believes that the United States is its strategic adversary and that it deserves to directly or indirectly support Russia in the context of this adversary.
The Chinese believe that the more pressure the Russians face, the more they will work together on various issues on terms that reflect China’s power. In addition, they believe that Russia’s attempt to “liberate” the 25 million Russians found in foreign countries strengthens its argument in favor of the military “liberation” of Taiwan and its integration into China.
