The supply of state-of-the-art defense equipment is a necessary but not the only condition for the successful use of military force. Without doctrine and morality, Taiwan’s weapons alone can make no difference. There is a gray area of Chinese activity under the threshold of peace and below the threshold of war. The constant harassment of Taiwanese fighters, the repeated overflights of Taiwan’s airspace, the aggressive intelligence gathering operations, and the instrumentalization of persistently enacted Chinese legislation constitute an irregular “normality” that can escalate into an evolving one.
In the existing institutional texts, the military doctrine of Taiwan is defined as deterrent and defensive, in order to avoid the loss of national territory. The doctrine, however, does not reflect the great changes that have taken place on the modern battlefield. New technological applications favor the side that takes the initiative. The use of unmanned aerial vehicles, combined with the use of artificial intelligence and robotics, brings a new revolution in military affairs.
We are entering a new era where conducting military operations is based on high speed, accuracy of targeting and, above all, surprise.
In any case, it is no longer so clear who the defender is and who the attacker is. Unfortunately, the truth has turned out to be a subjective reality shaped by the cynicism of geopolitics and the mechanisms of influencing public opinion. The examples around us are beginning to thicken. In September 2020, Azerbaijan launched hostilities in the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Thanks to the support of Russia and Turkey, but also to the methods of Azeri propaganda, Azerbaijan was not found to have an apology for its actions against civilians. The new equipment will give unprecedented capabilities to the Armed Forces. In a few years nothing will be the same in the South China Sea. The air force fighters, with their state-of-the-art radar and weapons systems, will dominate the skies.
With their powerful air defenses, the Taiwanese Navy frigates will be able to create no-access zone (A2 / AD) zones for enemy aircraft. In addition, the Special Forces and some units of the Army will be able to deploy rapidly anywhere they want.
Taiwan’s military doctrine cannot remain static and unchanging. Adopting deterrence through punishment is definitely the right choice. But now we need a new military philosophy that will not be trapped by outdated views on defense and attack.
Ideally, the new military doctrine should favor offensive defense and take strategic-operational and tactical initiatives to demoralize the adversary. Exercise scenarios that focus on recapture land send the wrong message to a very experienced opponent who knows how to win wars.
The armed forces must be able to act in a way that will dramatically increase costs for the other side. In practice, this means more emphasis on deep blows, even at the level of training and exercises.
May China become a peaceful, democratic and, above all, bona fide neighbour seeking cooperation with Taiwan. Until then, however, the worst-case scenario lies ahead. The equipment must be accompanied by a change in military doctrine in order to guarantee the territorial integrity of this country.
