The crucial question that is currently plaguing EU leaders and officials is how the European Union will deal with China. Europe sees China as an economic competitor, a systemic adversary, and a partner in climate change.
In technology, it seeks autonomy from China and is aligned with the United States. But Europe wants economic ties with China, because European companies and the European economy are much more exposed to China than to the US. 11% of EU exports go to China, compared to just 6% of EU exports to the US.
Europe is also realizing that the escalation of a new Cold War is in danger of ending in a self-fulfilling prophecy of Hot War. The US approaches the issues with the self-sufficiency of a large closed economy, with the self-confidence of a wealthy nation and with the weight of Manichaeism and ignorance that Donald Trump’s supporters represent.
Europe, having experienced centuries of war on its soil, is much more mature and cautious. The EU is a peace project and a political entity that has emerged through a unified market. Its foreign policy is similar. Its prosperity is based on the fact that it trades with the whole world and from there derives its power – its global economic, trade and regulatory footprint (please read the analysis entitled “Can the EU compete with China on the Silk Road?“)
This is the power of the EU, the European interest presupposes a functioning global system based on multilateral Institutions, rules, agreements. Pax Europeea is based precisely on the model of a liberal peace through international economic interdependence. No illusions: economic interdependence provides no guarantees, as World War I attests.
But dividing the world into two self-sufficient economic blogs (West and China) under Cold War is the fastest way to conflict. Towards Russia, the EU also has realistic reflexes. While he has no illusions about Russia’s rivalry, Vladimir Putin’s authoritarianism and his performance in misinforming and supporting the European far right, he realizes the need for dialogue with Russia. This realism seems to be shared by the administration of Joe Biden, who wants very well to prevent a strategic Sino-Russian convergence.
