Global geopolitical developments are now moving at a rapid pace. In the Mediterranean, Turkey, although typically a member of NATO, is trying to select an area or point to cause “overheating” by using its armed forces. Such a scenario involves the active challenge of the oil and gas extraction activities of the companies ExxonMobil and QatarPetroleum in the EEZ of Cyprus, an EU member state. In case the EU (Greece, France, etc.) fails to prevent any action by Turkey, it would send a message to the world that “Turkey is irreplaceable in NATO and that the US should do everything it can.”
How should the EU and the US react on all fronts in Asia?
The instability in the Mediterranean Sea in an EU member state, if Turkey achieves its goal of making the EU energy hostage along with Russia, will be expected to take place in a border area between Europe and Asia, which is a subset of instability. which is observed in other parts of Europe and Asia, but also in other parts of Asia-Japan and among the US Allies in the Pacific Ocean.
This is due to the fact that Turkey consistently copies the behavior of China and Russia respectively towards the US allies. Turkey’s goal is to establish itself as a regional superpower inside NATO and outside NATO with the parallel goal of eliminating Israel as the main US ally in the Middle East.
The deployment of NATO troops near the border with Russia, due to allied training activities, has led Russian President Vladimir Putin to state Russia’s intention to prevent NATO from spreading to the East.
This, of course, is due to the statements of Japanese officials that Japan will not passively watch a possible Chinese offensive against Taiwan.
Essentially, Russia supports China, which in turn supports China as a point and according to its interests and developments in favor of Russia in geopolitical areas of Russian interest.
The connection of the fronts in both West and East Asia may indicate that the deliberate escalation of the military situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border, with Russia having a regular advantage, is a deterrent in the event that tensions between the United States and China rise in the China Sea and generally in the Pacific Ocean.
The Turks are steadily copying China’s strategy against Taiwan, drawing up the Mavi Vatan strategy to take control of the Eastern Mediterranean to the detriment of other countries in the region. In order to achieve Turkey’s goal, Turkey has been trying to make the most of the competition between the US and Russia in recent years, which, as a NATO member, its sole goal (like that of all NATO members) should be to halting Russia.
At the same time, as Turkey needs China as an alternative financier to the Persian Gulf countries (Qatar, UAE) and because it has so far been unable to achieve, due to distance, a rise in pan-Turkism in Central Asia, it is keeping a low profile. which is at odds with China over the issue of Turkish Uighurs living in the Chinese province of Xinjiang.
The picture becomes more complicated as in Northern Greece (Alexandroupolis) accumulates a large number of American troops and weapons systems to control (in case of war) the Bosphorus Straits, but also by the correspondingly larger concentration of NATO troops on the border with Ukraine and Russia. The recognition of Russian sovereignty in Crimea by the adventurous President of Belarus Lukashenko makes the situation even greater and more serious.
The fact that the US-Russian Foreign Ministers are meeting does not mean that the situation will escalate. Russia, for its part, sees the full and deliberate dominance of the anti-Russian agenda of the US Democrats, which suppresses any voice of logic in the US centers of power seeking an active character of political de-escalation with Russia.
The current situation raises concerns about stability in Ukraine, as Russia sees that the US is rapidly seeking an irreversible situation inside Ukraine. The question that arises for both the US and Russia is whether the two military superpowers have a Plan B and C respectively in the event of a derailment of the situation in Ukraine.
A strong military presence, on both sides of the border, in Ukraine can act as an accelerator of destabilization in both Ukraine and the Balkans, where Serbia plays the role of Belarus.
The West accuses Russia of encouraging separatist moves by Bosnian Serb leader Miroslav Dodik, who met with Vladimir Putin on December 2, 2021, while Russia blames German High Commissioner Christian Smith, claiming he is if not the only longer, supporter of the Dayton Peace Treaty.
The crucial issue that arises is that the US and NATO are trying in every way to westernize Ukraine, regardless of what Russia wants. In this case, however, what is the maximum pressure point that Russia will tolerate before launching an offensive (possible membership of Ukraine in NATO)? In this case, any Russian offensive combined with Turkey’s action in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Balkans would severely affect the EU’s energy security by making the EU hostage to Russia and Turkey (Western Asian powers).
Both the US and the EU should gnash their teeth, at least in Turkey, which is the weak link on this Western Asian-European front, where in the event of action it should not be civilized. and as usual is done so far.
But the United States should bear in mind that Europe and Russia share the common concern of marginalization from the new emerging US-China competitive dipole. Both the economic field and the geography bring Russia and the EU close to many fields. During the energy crisis, Russia is proving to be a reliable supplier of natural gas to the Europeans, while their positions on Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, and respect for the Law of the Sea are also converging.
