Ukraine looks like the second largest powder magazine in the world after Taiwan. The complete collapse of diplomacy and the excessive concentration of military forces on the border between Ukraine and Russia show this fact. As the experience of spring shows, when the region reached the brink of war, it did not act as a deterrent but rather as a test for the next phase of escalation.
The United States has told the European Union that more than 100,000 Russian troops are on the border between Ukraine and Russia, along with heavy weapons that were transported there in the spring. The Americans do not know what the Russians want to do.
On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West on television of complete disregard for Russia’s red lines. According to the Russian President, “Western strategic bombers carrying very serious weapons are flying at a distance of 20 kilometers from the Russian border”, then accusing the West that Russia’s partners show a very superficial understanding of both its warnings and its red lines οf Russia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has refused to meet with his Ukrainian, German and French counterparts for talks on normalizing the situation in eastern Ukraine on November 11, saying he would legalize the withdrawal of the Minsk agreements by the Kiev.
Former United States Deputy Foreign Minister Matthew Bryza recalled that there was a historical precedent and such denial. According to Bryza, Russia has refused to meet with European diplomats as it prepares to invade Georgia in the summer of 2008. Bryza does not rule out the possibility that Moscow could strengthen its forces in a threatening manner only to gain a negotiating advantage in non-NATO member Ukraine.
The dilemma is now shifted to the NATO side. Because either he will have to defend the eastern parts of the Alliance or go to war with Russia.
