In recent years, Turkey, a NATO member, has been increasingly cooperating with Russia, both in the trade and defense / armaments sectors. But this relationship seems to be necessary for both countries. Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is steadily reviving an Ottoman greatness-empire, aiming for its independence from the West and NATO, and needs Russia to avoid isolation. While Russia despite its power can not leave Turkey for many reasons as we will present below.
Reasons for Russia to cooperate with Turkey
The situation in the Syrian province of Idlib, located in northern Syria, is now occupied by fighters who are close to Turkey. Despite the efforts of the Syrian army, it is not easy to oust these friendly Turkish Armed Forces without Russian intervention. At the same time, in order to consolidate the positions of the pro-Turkish fighters, Turkey has transferred its troops to these occupied territories of Syria. Turkey’s goal is to establish a security zone in its border area against Kurdish rebels. In the future, this piece of land could become as independent as the occupied territories of Cyprus, placing a friend of the Turkish regime, in order to keep up the pressure on the Syrian government.
The problem for Syria is that it does not have the necessary forces to oust Turkey from Idlib, while Russia does not want to be directly involved in a war with Turkey.
Turkey is a member of NATO. All supplies of the Russian army in Syria pass through the Bosphorus Straits. While Russia knows that with a war with Turkey it will lose the use of the Turkish stream gas pipeline. Russia needs the Turkish stream, as well as the Nord Stream in Germany, to put pressure on Ukraine and the EU. In addition, billions of dollars have been invested by Russia in the Akuyu nuclear power plant in Turkey. In this way, Russia is “engaged” without being able to make significant geopolitical openings, while losing opportunities to improve its relations with other countries and especially with other Western countries.
In the event of a war between Russia and Turkey the cost is too great for Russia. Russia will lose the Turkish stream, the Bosphorus Straits will be closed and the Akuyu nuclear power plant will be nationalized.
At the same time in Syria, a war between Russia and Turkey through representatives will mean the expulsion of Turks from Idlib, large flows of refugees to Turkey, causing a humanitarian-economic crisis in Turkey. In addition, there will be a blow in the upcoming elections for the Turkish President.
The Ambitions of Turkey
Turkey’s ambitions are oriented towards the union of the Turkic-speaking countries and the creation of a Single NATO between these countries of Central Asia, chaired by Turkey. In this NATO-speaking Turkey, Turkey will play a role as the US has in NATO. Such a Union of States would undermine the role of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) chaired by Russia. Such a Union of Turkic-speaking states would be against Russia’s security interests on its southern borders.
The dramatic shift in Russia’s interests and in Turkey’s interests came as Turkmenistan, a Central Asian country, recently decided to join the Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States, which will be announced at the Eighth Turkish Summit in Istanbul, on November 12, 2021.
Turkmenistan is a gas-rich country with access to the Caspian Sea, bordering Afghanistan, and is not a member of the CSTO. Turkey managed to make a matte move on the geopolitical chessboard of Central Asia. If Turkey manages to control the countries that have access to the Caspian Sea, the way will be opened for cheap energy supply to Turkey and Turkey’s embrace with the rest of the Central Asian countries.
How Russia can disengage from Turkey
The supply of Russian troops to Syria and the Mediterranean Sea is generally done through the Bosphorus Straits. Russia’s alternative is the sea-land-rail corridor between the Caspian Sea-Iran-Iraq and Syria. But there are many dangers along this way. The plan signed in 2020 for an Iran-Iraq-Syria railway line aims to serve Russia and Syria as an alternative supply corridor.
Russia must show great tolerance on the issue of Ukraine, otherwise the problems will continue and will be an economic-commercial and geopolitical hemorrhage for Russia. Otherwise Russia will continue to depend its foreign policy on the existence of the Turkish stream.
