North Korea announced that last weekend, September 11-12, it had successfully tested cruise missiles that crashed into North Korean territorial waters after first traveling 1,500 kilometers. The rocket was fired from a vehicle rather than from a fixed base, indicating that its effectiveness and protection from a pre-emptive strike are increasing.
The missile’s range allows it to strike both South Korea and Japan, and their US bases in those two countries.
UN Council resolutions prohibit North Korea from possessing or testing technologies related to ballistic missiles, but not cruise missiles.
The difference between ballistic missiles and cruise missiles is that the former move in a parabolic trajectory (covering very long distances, while cruise missiles) move in a relatively straight-flat orbit at a very low altitude.
North Korea’s statement said it was a “strategic weapon of major importance” referring to North Korea’s nuclear program, using nuclear warheads on these cruise missiles. This fact alone raises concerns.
North Korea’s nuclear program as a bargaining chip
North Korea’s nuclear program has been the basis for the attention of its neighbors and the United States. The goal of the North Korean regime was and is:
• to remain in power.
• reduce the chances of being attacked.
• negotiate a plan that would secure him specific leadership positions in a different tomorrow that would involve the assimilation of North Korea by South Korea.
• provide humanitarian food aid to stay in power.
• to claim a “nuclear power” regime that would allow it to claim a place in the World Trade Organization (WTO) as was done with China on 11 December 2001. In return for its entry into the WTO, China had to pursue a policy of reform and the opening that had begun in 1979 and made a wide range of commitments which it had made upon its accession.
• to fuel nationalism which is a key component of authoritarian regimes.
These reasons do not allow the North Korean regime to abandon its nuclear program and possession of nuclear weapons.
North Korea: I’m present
North Korea’s strategy found fertile ground during Donald Trump’s presidency, when it managed to “extract” two summits with the then US President in Singapore (2018) and Hanoi (2020).
However, the fact that the North Korean regime managed to push it to the same table as the American President does not mean that it had a successful result for them. The US side interrupted the talks at the time because it disagreed with the size of the concessions it would have to make to end North Korea’s nuclear program.
So as the then-growing missile tests gave Kim Jong Un the opportunity to sit at the same table with the US and as the US is currently focusing on its confrontation with China they formed new alliances in the Pacific-Indian Ocean and given the fact that President Joe Biden is likely to follow the path he had chosen with North Korea under President Barack Obama (no interest then only in imposing sanctions), conducting missile tests to show that he is present and wants to attract the attention of the United States.
In any case, this effort to get the attention of the United States will continue from North Korea, given the publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report on the very serious indication that North Korea has begun to restart its nuclear reactor.
It is certain that both South Korea and Japan will try to increase their defense and offensive capabilities from the United States.
The United States, for its part, will not be distracted by its confrontation with China, it will only increase the intensity of sanctions against North Korea, causing North Korea to grieve in the first place.
