With just one day left until US President Donald Trump imposes a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, a July 9 deadline for a deal has passed. But what is the White House risking?
If implemented, the tariff would be the highest ever imposed on any country — a remarkable development considering that in April, on Trump’s “Liberation Day,” Brazil faced a mere 10% tariff and had not attracted much attention from the White House until recently. So far, Brazil’s efforts to negotiate with the US government have yielded little tangible results.
Trump’s letter threatening tariffs, published on social media on July 9, included a series of accusations against Brazil: First, that the legal proceedings against former President Jair Bolsonaro for the attempted coup on January 8, 2023, are a “witch hunt.”
Second, that the Brazilian Supreme Court’s censorship of American technology companies violates Americans’ right to free speech. And third, that Brazil is pursuing an unfair trade relationship with the United States.
Trump’s move suggests that Brazil has lost influence in Washington, in favor of opposition figures like Eduardo Bolsonaro, who have fueled the US administration’s intense hostility toward the Brazilian government.
Moreover, Trump’s attack on Brazil demonstrates that he has no isolationist beliefs, and “it is probably the clearest example of the promotion of authoritarianism to date.”
Finally, Trump’s direct interference in Brazil’s internal affairs will push the public and private sectors to reduce their dependence on Washington. Even if Brazil ends up making concessions, Trump’s tactics have shattered the sense of predictability and credibility of the United States in the eyes of Brazilians, which will inevitably reduce US influence in the country — and, if its neighbors are watching closely, in all of South America.
The two experts point out that many Brazilian politicians condemned the move as a blatant attack on national sovereignty and democratic institutions. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called the threats “unacceptable blackmail in the form of threats against Brazilian institutions.”
At political rallies, he declared: “No foreigner will give orders to this president!” and argued that “the interference of one country in the judicial function of another is unacceptable and violates the basic principles of respect and sovereignty between nations.”
Trump’s Injustice
The main reason for imposing tariffs is supposedly to improve the US trade deficit. However, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative’s own Office of the Administration, trade in goods between the United States and Brazil amounted to an estimated $92 billion in 2024.
US exports of goods to Brazil reached $49.7 billion, an increase of 11.3% (or $5 billion) compared to 2023. US imports of goods from Brazil amounted to $42.3 billion, an increase of 8.3% (or $3.2 billion) compared to the previous year.
The US trade surplus in goods with Brazil amounted to $7.4 billion, recording an increase of 31.9% (or $1.8 billion) compared to 2023.
Promotes authoritarian regimes
Trump’s meddling in Brazil’s internal affairs marks the first half of his second term, marked by intense global meddling—whether through the US vice president’s support for the AfD in Germany, through State Department criticism of legislation in the UK, or through Trump’s own accusations of genocide against the South African government.
Ultimately, Trump’s tariff threats may achieve the exact opposite of their intended effect. Rather than subjugating Brazil, they have strengthened national resistance, weakened pro-American voices, and exposed the dangers of over-reliance on an unpredictable partner.
For Brazil, the lesson is clear, because long-term sovereignty and stability require a more diversified foreign policy. For Washington, the damage may prove difficult to reverse.
Even if this particular crisis subsides, the perception that the United States is willing to use economic power to settle personal or ideological scores will likely persist long after the current administration, eroding trust not only in Brazil but throughout Latin America.
