Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran are one of the largest population countries in the Middle East and play a leading role in the wider region now adapted to President Joe Biden.
EU, after Brexit, sees its influence limited to the region. This gap is now being dynamically filled by France, assisted by Greece and Cyprus, which are strengthening as far as possible their presence and military cooperation with the States of the Middle East.
The long-term objective of France and the EU in general is to be able to respond to the most complex geopolitical game, given the expected rise in international oil prices following the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
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The EU’s objectives in the Middle East
The EU’s first geopolitical objective and main aim is to decom confuse the tension between the Gulf Cooperation Council countries involving Saudi Arabia, the United Arabic Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Iran.
The zeroing of tension between Iran and the other countries in the region has concrete measurable effects on the EU. More specifically:
1. It is ensured that refugee-migration flows from the Middle East, namely From Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Kera Africa to the EU, will be drastically reduced.
2. The safety of maritime trade routes from the Gulf of the Persian sea to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea is ensured.
3. The smooth and safe passage of natural gas and oil pipelines is ensured in the future.
4. Regional stability is ensured which will provide the necessary framework for explosive development through the reconstruction of the affected countries of the Middle East.
5. The EU’s green development will not require its dependence on the use of imported fossil fuels, but it knows that the passage and sale of the main product of the Countries of the Arabian Peninsula will give them the necessary funds for the development of which will then help them to buy EU products and services.
The EU military presence has a small and co-ancillary role in the international naval force that controls the Straits of Hormuz, through which super tankers carry the region’s oil are passing around the globe.
To create this stable regional framework in the Middle East, the EU considers that this will be achieved by reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran and the EU, the US, Russia, China, Germany, France, and the UK for Iran not acquiring a nuclear arsenal in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
The main obstacle for the EU is the US sanctions against Iran, highlighting the EU’s absence in the functioning of the international financial system in tense conditions. The international financial system is controlled by the US, which imposes economic sanctions through its legislation.
The normalisation of relations between the States of the Middle East
The so-called “Abraham Agreements” have led to relations between Israel, the United States and Bahrain followed in the future by Saudi Arabia.
- Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is consistently first in oil exports among OPEC countries. Saudi Arabia in 2015 led the war in Yemen to prevent Iran-backed Houthi rebels from advancing. Then an unprecedented humanitarian disaster was created in Yemen. The U.S. has not agreed to continue to support Saudi Arabia to continue this war.
- Bahrain
In Bahrain, Shiites, influenced by Shiite Iran, make up the majority and rebelled in 2011 against the Monarchy as part of the so-called “Arab Spring.”
- United Arabic Emirates (UAE)
In the UAE Shiites do not question the regime, but they oppose both Tehran’s strategy and the Turkey-Qatar axis.
Saudi Arabia, along with Bahrain and the United States, are vertically opposed to Iran’s strategy in the region and its effort to integrate the Shiites of the three countries into it. Shiites in Saudi Arabia make up 10% of the total population but are majority in the oil-rich eastern province.
From this context began the confrontation between the Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United States) and Iran.
Photo by the website https://en.wikipedia.org
The Return in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (The Iran nuclear deal framework)
US President Joe Biden is in favour of reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement with Iran (for more analysis about US policy please read the analysis titled “War Winds or a New International Agreement on Iran”). On the other hand, it does not accept the return of the US to the Agreement because Iran requires it, so as not to appear compliant in American public opinion.
He believes that Iran should first return to the Agreement and accept control not only of ballistic missile development but also of its military presence in various parts of the Middle East.
Shiite Iran is influencing Iraq’s Shiite militias, supporting Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia versus Turkey
The Saudis do not trust Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan because he supported Egypt’s Muslim Brothers during the Arab Spring and does not accept him as the leader of Sunni Islam. In return, Turkey released evidence of the brutal murder of American journalist Kasogi by the Saudis.
The Turkey-Qatar Alliance is putting intense pressure on the UAE with tension between the UAE and Turkey increasing due to Turkey’s intense Ottoman expansionism in North Africa (Libya, Chad, Tunisia, Morocco) and the Arab world in general.
In our view, the EU should encourage and pressure the Oil Countries of the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arabic Emirates, Jordan to work together to create networks of natural gas and oil pipelines from the Arabian Peninsula to the Mediterranean Sea so that the main product of the Middle East is absorbed from EU markets through a network of super tankers & LNG that will transport shipments of hydrocarbons and their derivatives to European networks for the transport of corresponding pipelines.
At the same time, it will have to convince Iran to come back first in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement before the US, and if the appropriate considerations and assurances are given on both sides (Iran & the other countries) for Iran to join the network of oil export pipelines reaching the Mediterranean Sea. This will create a framework for peace and development in the Middle East.
