The fact that over the past six years Turkey has strengthened its role and influence in the Middle East, creating its own “pockets” of supporters that could be used as leverage to the governments of Middle Eastern countries and any tendency to autonomy from the US and the West may come to an end through the US Justice’s decision on the Halkbank scandal.
Turkey works closely with Iran and has a military presence in Syria, Lebanon, Qatar, Libya, Nagorno Karabakh and supports the dissident Islamists against Bashar Al-Assad in Syria while supporting Hezbollah at both operational and financial level.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
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But Turkey’s potential could be ended by a conviction resulting from the trial of Turkey’s Halkbank in the US. In particular, the U.S. Justice Department will examine in detail whether this Turkish bank circumvented the economic sanctions imposed against Iran in the period prior to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (2015) commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal or Iran Deal.
If it turns out that the embargo imposed against Iran by the US was violated by Halkbank and the executives of that bank made billions of dollars in profits, with a percentage of these billions of dollars in profits ending up with the President of Turkey, through the son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other executives of that Bank appointed by the President of Turkey himself, it is highly likely that Halkbank will be harshly punished by the American Justice.
If Halkbank is found guilty it will be ordered to pay a billion-dollar fine or disqualified from the US-controlled Swift international banking system.
In such a damning case for this bank, Halkbank would declare bankruptcy, causing the Turkish banking system to destabilize, creating new problems for the Turkish economy, while the Turkish President would appear globally as the head of state-mafia.
The Presidency of Joe Biden is aware of this fact and is more likely to seek not to punish Turkey harshly and if it primarily agrees to adapt to the US strategy, including exchanges to the US to be the withdrawal of anti-aircraft/anti-ballistic Russian S-400 missiles, the cessation of cooperation with Iran, while ensuring the Turkish President’s political survival.
