The Brexit and its Geopolitical Consequences

After the decision of the referendum in the UK (23/06/2016) as to the non-stay of UK (United Kingdom) in the EU (European Union) and the UK and EU efforts since that date to agree on a “consensual divorce” with the least cost for both sides, are being made very important rearrangements in the geopolitical field.

If we assume that the scenario of Brexit takes place officially, then the segregation of UK from EU and especially from the European continent, creates the repetition of history where the 18^th, 19^th and in the middle of 20^th centuries correspondingly, we have clearly two great powers, England and Russia-USSR (Union of Soviet Socialistic Republics).

The today geopolitical framework

These two great powers are involved in a covert, if not obvious, collision (English-Russian crash-the imperial competition of 19^o century) with background the European continent (EU) and their new attempt to not allow EU to acquire a supranational command center in which the member-countries of EU will have granted national sovereign powers and rights (EU as Federation), so that EU to can become a new globally political-economic and military superpower.

by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis-https://www.liberalglobe.com

The today Russia, supports and wants the existence of EU as the creation of a union countries-nations but without these countries to give up part of their national sovereignty to a supranational federal type of administration and planning body, and always without the presence and the cover of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).

On the other hand, the UK always wanted the European continent to be the principal market for the sale of its products and services but without to allow the rise of any European great power.

During the 18^th, 19^th and in the middle of 20^th centuries correspondingly, there was the English-Russian conflict and whenever conditions required it became an alliance between them for the non-emergence of the then European continental powers like France of the Bourbons and Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte equally, Germany’s Emperor Wilhelm and the Germany of Nazi.

The fact that the UK today, did not want to see Russia in its seashores of the North Sea, in first stage will force the UK to come in a much closer alliance as much with USA (United States of America) as with the EU for security, intelligence and defense issues correspondingly. This will make stronger the security both of UK and EU.

However, the fact that EU in its total would not proceed to the development of specific security and defense systems against any third party and continue to be based solely on its alliance with the United Kingdom and the US (United States), would lead the European Union to become a huge market as it was in the 19^th and 20^th centuries equally and never being able to obtain the triptych of political-economic-military power for the survival of its existence and its effectiveness.

Since EU has chosen the way of its survival and effectiveness (this is dictated by logic) through the acquisition of the triple of the three values (namely the political-economic-military power) which is characterized the state power within the Western world and not only, the EU will be forced to build both security and defense forces at pan European level (initially at the level of Eurozone only and then integrating at this framework each new member from the EU family).

The global geopolitical configurations and the possible alliances

On the other hand, the EU’s energy dependence on Russia would bring EU closer to Russia (even if the Ukraine issue was unresolved initially) due to the trade war with USA.

Given that the trade war will continue between USA and EU, the approach of EU with the Russia and China will become more quickly and much more apparent.

The any sanctions that US and EU have imposed to Russia, due to the Ukraine issue-territory, from the side of EU will greatly reduce in implementation time and until their phasing out.

Since and China involve in a trade war with US, then the approach of China and Russia with the EU for the control of the world trade will become more apparent than ever by joining between them a trade alliance.

An immediate result of these alliances will appear in the votes of UN (United Nations), in the decisions both the Security Council of UN and the WTO (World Trade Organization) but also as to the control of the energy roads and seaways in the East Mediterranean, the North Europe and the Middle East correspondingly.

If the trade wars announced from the US, through the imposition of tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum on the US market, continue with the simultaneous abolition or withdrawal of the US by international trade institutions like NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), TTP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and JEFTA (Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement) together with the existence of trade wars to take place from USA with the aim of continuously trying to maintain a “weak” US dollar to increase US exports to other countries, then a further breach will be created in the relations between the countries that make up the so-called West.

Necessarily, the other major global economic-political players/countries will try to achieve a very close understanding for the issues of their concern, by further isolating the USA in the global economic-trade chessboard.

The Japan, disappointed and dissatisfied with the trade war with the US and not only, will start to build defense forces at a fast pace, to reduce its detoxification from the US and to be more self-reliant against China and North Korea in the military field.

This strategic choice will help Japan to the greatest extent in the arrangement of its possible conflicts with other neighboring countries in terms of exploiting a larger share in Pacific Ocean.

On the other side, the division in the Western world and between the European allies of US will become more apparent.

The growth of the economy based on liberal society is at risk

At the same time, the Liberal Democracy will start to be in the “quote” as countries like Russia and China, which although are capitalistic and receive their benefits from the liberalization of world trade (mainly China) while they are not liberal as societies and as we mean the liberal societies of the West, their economic success as an economic-capitalistic model that promotes stability and growth through in an authoritarian and not liberal way, will gain continuously ground against the liberal governance model of West.

In other words, the emergence of a new form of authoritarian capitalism like China, which as a model of economy and development will bring to the world the stability and well-being but with a governance that will restrict the freedoms of citizen and the individual as a coherent member of a society, with an economy that is centrally planned by the state apparatus and not by the principles of the free market, will constantly undermine the political system of governance of liberal democracy which West is in charge.

In such a case, several countries around the world will try to adopt the economic-growth-social model of “authoritarian capitalism” while the liberal democracies and societies of the West will be lured by this system.

The lure in this case is that the dividing political lines among the political parties in the liberal democracies of the West will begin to disappear, implementing the political parties the same “authoritarian capitalistic model”, even if the political parties and political leaders which are alternated in the executive power will be different each time.

In this case, the free market principles will be abolished by all the countries and the world will become much more dangerous for the free movement of capital at world level.

Simultaneously, the freedoms and rights of the citizens will be constantly restricted, and they kept away from the vision of a planet that will prevail the liberal polity as system of governance, prosperity and development of people and nations, while the disappearance of a prosper middle income class, in each liberal democratic country will be the rule and not the exception.

Unfortunately, the trigger for implementing such a desperate scenario begins with the declaration of trade wars between the countries-trade wars which are always accompanied by monetary wars-while these scenarios can lead either to great recessions worldwide and in conventional or non-wars.

The general strategy of strengthening the model of liberal society

Given the division of the West and the search for new trade alliances among powerful countries, the US will be retreated due to a growing protectionism of their domestic market, while at the same time testing the strengths and the relations of USA-as state, with the US capital which are moving globally searching investment opportunities.

And given that the US capital cannot isolate only in the domestic market of USA or in the best of occasions only in the American continent.

The fact that the US companies will be silently excluded from any effort to undertake work/project or to further promote their products and services in the markets of countries that will accept the US trade war, will intensify the tensions between US companies and the US state/government equally.

In this case, the emergence of a new global ruler or rulers (which will appear simultaneously the picture of superpower in the fields of economy-political-military) will not be long before it becomes reality.

This scenario, of course, in order not to take place, some steps will have to be taken:

1. Withdrawal of all tariffs imposed on products and services from all countries and wherever these countries have imposed these artificial barriers.

2. More strengthen of the international institutions which are guaranteed the free movement of capital and they ensure the global liberalization of trade (institutions like NAFTA, GATT, TTIP, TTP, JEFTA etc.).

3. Cancellation on both sides of Brexit, as much from the UK as from the EU, and the UK to become again full member of EU and mainly of Eurozone, taking on a nodal and leading role along with other countries-members of EU as it concerns security and defense issues of EU. It’s more that unite UK and EU of what separates them.

4. The creation of a new political-economic-military Federation which will have one and only new common currency, and this federation will be based on one Constitution like the Constitution of USA or the one of Switzerland or the Constitution of German Federation after the end of B World War.

In this federation with the new common currency will participate initially as full members the countries of USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand equally.

I refer to these four countries because both their social base and their social background are based on Anglo-Saxons and given that mainly only in the Anglo-Saxon countries operate perfectly both the monetary and economic rules and the constitution of the Liberal Democracy function as a means of governance.

Later, in this federation/union of states will can enter as affiliated or full members the Japan, the North Korea and other countries.

A such federal state/union will have a new powerful global gravity in the political-economic-military field and together with the EU will strengthen further the relations among the countries of West.

On the other hand, it is the only way for the USA-by entering in such a new monetary union-to significantly correct the deficit in their trade balance by dramatically reducing the size of their giant borrowing to finance it.

Sooner or later, the US should be led to adopt such a policy-strategy to reduce the exposure of their giant debts to third countries and to enable them to give new momentum both to their own economy and to the global economy.

As much the US as the other countries which will participate in this new super national economic-political-military umbrella with a new common currency will achieve to give all their citizens greater security and prosperity.

5. Greater federal type of deepening in areas such as economy-political-military among Eurozone member-countries initially. Before doing so, some other economic and political steps will have to be taken in the member countries of Eurozone.

So that the Eurozone can move to a federal union with a common fiscal, tax and economic policy across its territory while ensuring the well-being of its citizens (more details will be given in forthcoming analyzes).

I refer to the member-countries of Eurozone and not to the total of the EU member-countries because the Eurozone-as the hard core of EU-will have to move initially in this type of federal (economic-political-military) deepening.

With this way as much, the Eurozone as the total of both EU and Eurozone member-countries cannot be divided between them and/or “blackmailed” by the actions of third countries. These economic and political policy steps will be explained in detail in other study-articles.

6. Quick improve in the relations between West and Russia. Sure, there are several problems of trust in relationships between them, such as the Ukraine issue, the civil war and the fight against IS in Syria, as well as NATO and Russia’s competition in the Balkans.

As also another type unacceptable actions that took place in the territory of UK (Scripal case-The UK is right). It is unacceptable to be in danger the lives of citizens in the time of peace on the territory of a country by actions of third parties.

How all these situations can be normalized and improved I will refer to another articles.

Thanos Chonthrogiannis

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