Hybrid warfare is a new terminology that is used to describe the long-term application of modern war tactics and the pursuit of specific objectives with a set of policies that reaches the limits of conventional warfare, but does not reach the declaration and conduct of war.
Grey Zone
On the other hand, in NATO’s language, the term ‘Grey Zone’ describes the situation in which there is particularly intense political, economic and military competition, which goes beyond traditional diplomacy but does not go as far as declaring a conventional war.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
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In order to create a ‘Grey Zone’ situation in one region, it is necessary to implement a coordinated effort or a set of successive initiatives which cannot be integrated into traditional deterrence or force projection but are designed in such a way as to achieve specific objectives without the direct and large-scale use of military forces.
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Examples of “Grey Zones” are the South China Sea region where China slowly and steadily implements all those actions to “grey” the entire maritime region.
Another example of a grey area is the Dokdo Islands (as they are called by South Korea) and Takeshima (as they are called by Japan) at stake between South Korea and Japan.
Hybrid War
Hybrid warfare is a concept which, however – and always based on the study of conflicts – is constantly evolving and refers to the use of unconventional methods as part of a multidimensional warfare.
Essentially, hybrid warfare is a mixture of conventional and unconventional methods, which may include the following actions:
- cyber warfare,
- psychological pressure through fake news,
- aggressive diplomacy to create an appropriate climate,
- military intervention through third parties (groups of mercenaries, use of guerrillas),
- the use of various forms of rebel warfare in cities as well as guerrillas in urban environments.
- use of directed refugee and migration flows.
Examples of hybrid warfare with the first example of this implementation appearing after the end of Hezbollah’s showdown with Lebanon in 2006, where after this showdown this fundamentalist Islamic group managed to combine various types of actions and initiatives to counter Israel’s much stronger armed forces.
Another later example of hybrid warfare is Russia’s destabilisation of Eastern Ukraine to prepare the right environment for the subsequent integration of Crimea into Russia after Russia had been preceded by appropriate psychological, communication policy and military preparation. This example is the most advanced form of hybrid warfare in modern conditions.
Another example of hybrid warfare is Turkey’s invasion of Syria. Before Turkish forces invaded Syria and Kurdish-dominated territory, it was preceded by an anti-terrorism propaganda campaign that showed Turkey under threat.
After this propaganda campaign and in order to avoid any threat from Turkey, the Turkish armed forces intervened, using in military actions conventional warfare Syrian Islamic mercenaries who had animosity with the Syrian Kurds because of the contribution of these Kurds to the defeat and dissolution of the Islamic State.
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Evolution of the hybrid war was used by Turkey in Libya’s civil war using state-of-the-art unmanned weapons systems and simultaneous use of Syrian Islamist mercenaries.
It should be noted that controlled and fully directed refugee and migration flows are part of the applied tactics of the ‘Grey Zone’ and hybrid warfare and as they can destabilise entire regions and/or states.
An example of this is the use of refugee-migrant flows under the pretext of Syria’s civil war from Turkey to the EU.
Propaganda and Psychological Warfare
Propaganda and psychological compulsion at state level require enormous spending and financial resources and the use of many human resources. The well-known Goebbels method where propaganda is intended to completely reverse reality while preparing aggressive actions shows the attacker as a defender who is supposed to be threatened.
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On the issues of psychological warfare and compulsion respectively, the aggressor tries to project that he has the image of a powerful state and that any other state that dares to resist him will be destroyed.
The purpose of this psychological war is to unconditionally surrender the defender to the aggressor without the aggressor and at the same time a propagandist to exert military violence.
Within this framework, the “war of economic, military and political attrition” is also applied so that the defender can submit and come to the negotiating table for fear of resisting.
An example of a war of attrition applied as part of a hybrid and psychological war is the war of attrition that takes place from China to Taiwan and from Turkey to Greece through the continuous violations of the airspaces of Taiwan and Greece by fighter jets of China and Turkey respectively.
Of course, the application of hybrid and psychological warfare respectively does not mean that it is always successful. It can lead to opposite results. Instead of discouraging the weary inhabitants of Taiwan and Greece respectively to break them up, it unites them and steels them to counter Chinese and Turkish aggression, respectively.
The economic war as part of the hybrid war
The aggressor who uses hybrid warfare as part of it will also use a framework of economic pressure to achieve his purpose. For example, China has twenty-two (22.6) times more GDP than Taiwan (GDP 2018, China $13368073m vs Taiwan $589906m, Source: www.countryeconomy.com ).
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In fact, China, with its war of attrition against Taiwan, is trying to put the following dilemma on Taiwan “adapt to this new state of One China policy or else you will be forced into a competition involving appalling public spending and the forced purchase of expensive weapons systems”.
In this case, Taiwan should go under the economic umbrella of the US and its allies in East Asia, so as to ease with external liquidity injections the cost of unafforded economic resources that under different non-alternative options will increase both the budget deficit into the state budget and Taiwan’s external debt.
The embargo and trade war as part of the hybrid war
The war of attrition exported by the aggressor to the defender can be countered either by the generalized economic embargo by the defender and his allies towards the aggressor. An example is Turkey’s war of attrition in Greece, unaware that Greece is EU territory.
Turkey has managed with its international behaviour to be considered investment risky by international markets which also take into account Turkey’s departure from the EU and the possibility that proposals by France, Greece and Cyprus to implement an economic embargo by the EU against Turkey will prevail.
To date what is happening in Turkey is an impressive flight of foreign capital, the postponement of foreign direct investment and a constant slippage in the value of the Turkish currency.
This is a classic example of how hybrid warfare and together, among other things, economic pressures not only fail but also create a problem in country’s economy which conduct hybrid war.
The worsening economic situation in Turkey is slowly and steadily creating popular discontent that can lead to social unrest.
The showdown as part of the hybrid war
It is assumed that violations of Taiwan’s airspace by Chinese fighter jets are gradually aimed at Taiwan gradually adapting to the idea of accepting Chinese super-weapons and coming to the table of dialogue under the regime defeated by war but without war.
Taiwan not only does not accept Chinese over-arming but does what it needs to do to strengthen its armed forces vis-à-vis the Chinese armed forces. Purchases of cruise missiles, F-16V fighter jets, etc.
