With twenty-four days remaining until the US midterm congressional elections on November 3, key polling trends remain steady: the Democrats are poised to take control of the House and have a very strong chance of capturing the Senate as well. Republicans have serious cause for concern, especially given that the appearances of US President Donald Trump—considered their “trump card” in this campaign—do not appear to be paying off. One advantage for the Republicans is that they have raised significantly more funds than the Democrats, which they are channeling into their campaign efforts.
Democrats hold a lead of over eight points
According to voting intention polls, the Democrats hold a steady lead of more than eight points over the Republicans (51.2% versus 43.4%). A recent Economist/YouGov poll was even more encouraging for the Democrats, showing an even wider 16-point lead (53% for the Democrats versus 38% for the Republicans). It is worth recalling that the current composition of the US Senate—where the battle is tougher for the Democrats—stands at 53 seats for the Republicans versus 47 for the Democrats. If the Democrats retain their seats and win four additional ones in the November 3rd elections, they will hold 51 seats, thereby securing control of the chamber.
According to opinion polls, Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska, and Michigan are among the most critical, as the outcomes remain too close to call.
Trump’s presence at Republican campaign rallies is not helping
Meanwhile, the campaign efforts the US President has zealously undertaken to assist the Republicans are not yielding results. On Wednesday evening, Trump appeared at a rally in San Antonio, Texas, to support Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, whose campaign is facing difficulties. Trump was particularly combative, reminding Texans why they had voted for him in 2024. However, his speech was interrupted at least a dozen times by protesters, several of whom were removed in handcuffs. At the rally, Trump spoke at length about border control, the Democrats, and himself. What he did not speak much about was the Republican Senate candidate for Texas, Ken Paxton.
Republican concerns regarding Texas
This was Trump’s third trip to Texas in a single month—a strong indication of how worried Republicans are about the midterm elections in this traditionally Republican state. The stakes are particularly high for the President, given that he personally endorsed this highly controversial candidate: Paxton, the Texas Attorney General and former state legislator, has faced accusations of corruption and abuse of power, and has even been convicted in some instances.
The “blue wave” Democrats dream of (blue being the color of the Democratic Party) could also stem from Republican voters who have become disillusioned with Trump and decide to stay home on election day.
