Washington is launching an unprecedented and highly aggressive diplomatic counterattack, with Donald Trump attempting to completely reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. The American president, taking advantage of the end of the military conflict with Iran, is setting a blunt and clear condition towards the Muslim world: normalizing relations with Israel and joining the historic Abraham Accords is no longer an optional option, but a “mandatory” commitment for the next day.
Through a barrage of critical phone calls with leading figures in the wider region – including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain – Trump has unfolded his new strategy. The message from the American side was clear: the long-awaited final agreement with Tehran necessarily requires official recognition of Israel by all the powerful Muslim states.
The hard pressure on Ankara
In this complex geopolitical chess game, the case of Turkey presents the greatest interest and the most intense difficulty. Although it does not belong to the Arab world, Ankara is one of the most calculable military and political powers in the region, being a member of NATO and having the ability to talk simultaneously with the West and the East.
Despite the fact that in the past the two countries maintained open channels, the bloody conflict in Gaza and Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s tough stance towards Tel Aviv led their relations to a historic low. Trump’s decision to include Turkey in this “mandatory” bloc proves that Washington seeks to erect an impenetrable Muslim wall, which will not only completely isolate Iranian influence, but will force Ankara to align with American plans.
The White House has inextricably linked the viability of the Iran deal to the simultaneous inclusion of countries such as Qatar, Pakistan and Turkey in the Abraham Accords. For Trump, their participation is the ultimate proof of “goodwill” in the new security architecture.
The White House’s goals
The US president’s main goal is to turn the recent military crisis into a lasting diplomatic victory. The plan is not limited to containing Tehran, but aims to fully integrate Israel into a broad regional network of security and economic cooperation, with the United States as the supreme guarantor.
To close this gigantic puzzle, Trump is also planning direct contacts with Benjamin Netanyahu, seeking to coordinate Tel Aviv’s moves with the American vision of the great normalization.
The risk and the historical shift
The Abraham Accords, which began during Trump’s first term with the Emirates and Bahrain, are now entering a much more ambitious and dangerous phase. This new effort is taking place in an environment of intense anger in the Muslim world, due to what unfolded in Gaza, which is making the governments of the region particularly cautious.
If the American president manages to bring Riyadh, Ankara, Doha, and Islamabad to the same table, it will be the greatest geopolitical upheaval of the century, radically changing the map as we knew it until now.
The Turkish impasse and the Saudi Arabian conundrum
For Erdogan, the dilemma is enormous and the political cost unbearable. Having invested heavily in defending the Palestinian cause and in the despicable rhetoric against Israel, a sudden reversal would cause strong tremors within the AKP and in Islamist circles in Turkey. Ankara is not going to back down easily, unless it secures significant returns that can be presented as a triumph.
At the same time, the “Holy Grail” of American diplomacy remains Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appears extremely hesitant, as the pressure from Arab public opinion is suffocating.
Riyadh is the ultimate regulator:
- If Saudi Arabia signs, it will drag the entire Muslim world with it.
- If Riyadh refuses, Trump’s pressure on Turkey and Pakistan will fall on deaf ears.
The next day
Donald Trump’s initiative is a clear attempt to turn the ashes of war into diplomatic capital. However, the obstacles are gigantic. The wound in Gaza remains open, the popular outcry in Muslim countries is enormous, and the demand for a just solution to the Palestinian issue cannot be easily circumvented by a presidential decree. Whether the map of the Middle East will be rewritten in American ink or whether the plan will founder on regional reality remains to be seen in the near future.
