The National Security Strategy released by the administration of US President Donald Trump last November (please also read the analysis titled “New US Security Strategy: The EU’s Insignificance in Its Decisions!“) was remarkable, far-reaching and unlike any issued since George W. Bush “overcame the Vietnam syndrome” in the early 1990s. In the accompanying letter bearing his signature, Trump described the document as “a roadmap to ensure that America remains the greatest and most successful country in the history of mankind.”
Trump’s strategy was supposed to ground America’s success in its founding ideals. “In the Declaration of Independence, America’s founders set out a clear preference for non-interference in the affairs of other nations. But, unfortunately, “our elites miscalculated America’s willingness to forever shoulder global burdens that the American people saw as having nothing to do with the national interest. They allowed allies and partners to pass on the cost of their defense to the American people” and “sometimes dragged us into conflicts and confrontations that were central to their own interests but peripheral or irrelevant to ours,” the American tycoon said at the time.
The vision of US withdrawal from the Middle East
Until last month, Trump’s policies seemed aimed at withdrawing from the Middle East. The National Security Strategy (NSS) had clearly stated it: “As the current administration eliminates or relaxes restrictive energy policies and American energy production increases, the historical reason for America’s focus on the Middle East will recede (please also read the analysis titled “Decoding the True Nature of Trump’s U.S. National Security Strategy (2025)“).
There were, of course, some caveats: “America will always have a core interest in ensuring that the energy resources of the Gulf do not fall into the hands of an enemy and that the Strait of Hormuz remains open.” But “we can and must confront this threat ideologically and militarily, without decades of fruitless nation-building wars.”
Moreover, the era in which “the Middle East dominated American foreign policy, both in its long-term planning and its day-to-day implementation” is now over, in part because the region “is no longer the persistent problem and potential source of impending disaster that it once was.” Israel’s security was mentioned, of course, but only in passing. Instead, the authors declared that the Middle East “is emerging as a place of cooperation, friendship, and investment—a trend that should be welcomed and encouraged.”
Why is Iran different?
Yet, despite these enthusiastic words, on February 28 the United States attacked Iran, a country 4.6 times the size of Germany, with a population of over 90 million people. The two wars in Iraq may have been larger (so far), but they were against a rather weak opponent. Iran, by contrast, is a civilized state with a large stockpile of missiles, drones, and a patriotic and religious devotion. To attack it is to start the mother of all eternal wars.
Of course, one could dismiss Trump’s National Security Strategy as yet another disingenuous statement designed to mislead the American public—and many commentators have done just that. But what purpose would that serve? If the goal was to pass the 2026 midterm elections, reaffirming Trump’s commitment to the promises he made during his last campaign, it makes no sense for the fraud to be exposed just three months after the document was released and eight months before Americans go to the polls.
Moreover, the quality of the document suggests that its authors were serious people. This is not a typical Trump campaign speech or press conference. Because such documents must be drafted and revised, written and rewritten, their importance lies precisely in the fact that they must overcome internal resistance before the president’s signature is added. This NSS was a largely coherent articulation of a distinct and important worldview: it charted a new direction for America, repudiating the rhetoric of “Pax Americana,” centered on NATO and the role of global policeman, which had been followed by all governments since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The US has already been expelled, once and for all, from the Persian Gulf
Things are not going according to plan, if… there ever was one, of course. The Strait of Hormuz is closed to U.S., European, Japanese, South Korean, and Israeli ships. Global oil supplies have been cut, and there will be severe shortages of gasoline, fertilizer, and, eventually, food. U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf region have been partially destroyed or rendered useless.
As things stand, America will never be able to return to these bases, because Iran shows no sign of backing down from the bombs, nor will its drones and missiles run out. Nor is there any chance that a few thousand Marines will turn the tide. In short, the US has already been expelled, once and for all, from the Gulf – although this may not yet have been realized by US officials or the American public.
