Iran came to the nuclear negotiations with the US showing weakness. It made unilateral concessions and, in effect, capitulated at the negotiating table. The Americans sensed weakness and attacked, and just a few hours later, the first missile attack against Iran was launched.
The negotiations were a sham, the US and Israel were not interested in peace but in the annihilation of Iran’s Supreme Leader (Rahbar), Ali Khamenei, and they succeeded…
Ali Khamenei is dead
Iran confirms that the Supreme Leader (Rahbar) of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, is dead. This was previously stated by US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. While they may have carried out the assassination, Netanyahu is technically the killer: the Pentagon’s main targets during the attack were missile facilities, while the Israel Defense Forces’ main targets were the Iranian leadership.
The assassination of the Defense Minister, the Chief of General Staff, and other key figures in Tehran has also been announced.
Ali Khamenei was a leader who did not hide
According to media reports, the Ayatollah’s body has already been recovered from the ruins of his residence. Such a death speaks volumes. Ali Khamenei did not hide, he did not even go into hiding. As a Shiite Muslim, he embraced the idea of martyrdom. As a Muslim, he believed in the inevitable. But above all, Ali Khamenei was a very experienced politician. He could only accept his fate if he had already resolved the main issue – the transfer of power.
It would be strange if he had not: the Rahbar would have turned 87 in April 2026. Ali Khamenei saw the revolution against the Shah and the war with Iraq from the front lines, personally led the IRGC, the Ministry of Defense and the entire executive branch, and served as Rahbar for almost 37 years – and in all these capacities, he was known for his foresight.
There are 3 possible successors
Middle Eastern media sources claim that Ali Khamenei identified three possible successors a few days before the attack and now the Council of Ayatollahs will choose a new Rahbar from them.
The typical “candidate” of the aggressors US and Israel… was calling for civil war in Iran
The typical “candidate” of the aggressors US and Israel – for the role of the leader of Iran is Shahzadeh, son and namesake of Reza Pahlavi, who was dethroned in 1979. He has not been in Iran for half a century and his only source of legitimacy is his descent from the cruel and corrupt monarch who provoked the revolution and led the country to ruin.
Reza Pahlavi the Younger had already expressed his support for the aggression against his country, calling it a “humanitarian intervention” and ordering everyone to “wait for the signal.” He was following in his father’s footsteps: his father, too, had not had the political acumen to the point of making any enemies of him. While Shahzadeh was persuading Iranians to side with the attackers, the bodies of children were being discovered in the ruins of a girls’ elementary school in the city of Minab, their number exceeding 104.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, March 2, Melania Trump, wife of President Trump, is chairing the UN Security Council as the US representative, and the meeting is dedicated to the protection of children. Now there will surely be something to discuss.
What the planet sees in Iran is unprovoked aggression, the “right to power” in its purest form, further proof that the old world order is collapsing and humanity would rather create a new one than save the old one.
US and Israel Want Regime Change
The ultimate goal of the aggressors is regime change, the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, and the return of the Shah, which requires inciting the masses to revolt.
Their minimal goal is to inflict maximum damage on Iran over several days of bombing and then offer to return to negotiations to abandon its nuclear program.
An intermediate option is to provoke an uprising on the national periphery, primarily in the province of Khuzestan, where almost all oil production is concentrated and where many Sunni Arabs live with their own grievances against the Iranian government.
Trump will likely lean toward new negotiations, while Netanyahu will strongly insist on war until complete victory. In any case, the fighting will continue for at least a few more days, which Iran must endure during the transition period of power (please also read the analysis titled “The High Significance of Iranian Oil on the US Geopolitical Chessboard“).
Iran cannot throw Israel into the sea
It does not have the resources for other options. Iran cannot end the conflict by expelling the Americans from the Middle East and “throwing Israel into the sea,” as former Iranian President Ahmadinejad called for.
It can only achieve calm, and much has already been done to achieve this. During the attack on it in the summer of 2025, Iran responded in a way that kept the escalation manageable and prevented a full-scale war. Now, the stakes are much higher, and the tactics have reversed:
Iran is trying to involve the entire region in the conflict, so that the cost will create international pressure on its adversary.
The Iranians have struck a historic blow to American prestige, hitting 14 American military bases
An unprecedented number of missiles and drones have attacked 14 American military bases in six countries, not counting Israel: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Now, in the cities of Arab elegance, ports, skyscrapers, five-star hotels and international airports are burning. Even the Burj Al Arab – the well-known symbol of Dubai – has been damaged.
Closing Hormuz… putting pressure on China
The IRGC – the Revolutionary Guards – has also blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery of global trade. Most of China’s oil exports pass through it, so the blockade feels like a call to China’s partners to intervene urgently (please also read the analysis titled “Smokeless” China and weakened Russia are spectators of developments in Iran“).
The Americans are targeting China…
Some speculate that Iran’s current woes stem from the fact that, like Venezuela, it has become China’s oil wallet. When the US Supreme Court overturned the president’s tariffs, Trump urgently needed new negotiating papers for trade talks with China, where he will fly in late March to meet with President Xi Jinping.
In this situation, he allowed Netanyahu to persuade him to attack, something that, according to polls, 68% of Americans do not support.
Iran’s goal should be something else… to scare the US
Iran’s goal should be something else… to scare the US into a protracted conflict with rising oil prices and falling markets, so that the war can end quickly.
And the death of the Supreme Leader (Rahbar) is a convincing pretext for Trump to declare victory and move on to something else, allowing the transition to proceed according to Ali Khamenei’s plan.
If this death is also part of the plan, it should become a symbol of martyrdom for his supporters and for the Iranian opposition, a hope for a new government that will no longer require betraying the homeland and joining the enemy (please also read the analysis titled “US Attack on Iran Could Lead to Larger-Scale War“).
Question mark over whether Iranian society will be divided
The Islamic Republic of Iran will only be able to survive the most difficult and frightening days since the Iraq war if its society, divided between religious conservatives and reformists, unites around the flag in the face of external threats.
The United States and Israel, for their part, have done everything to ensure the completion of this unification, and the Shah’s counter-revolutionary idea has been thwarted.
It is difficult to even assess which of their “achievements” is more important in this regard: the transformation of a school for little girls into a mass grave or the transformation of a seriously ill leader, about whom the population had accumulated many questions, who accepted death to pave the way for a new government. Will it be a government aligned with the Shah and pro-American, as the enemy desires?
Iran taught Russia how to negotiate with the US
Israel and the United States have launched a new war against Iran. The war began a few hours after Iran made concessions in negotiations with the United States. That is why it started.
The “Dirty Game of Negotiations”
After the conclusion of peace talks in Geneva, Oman’s foreign minister told the press that significant progress had been made in the Iran-US negotiations. He even revealed what kind of progress.
“The most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never, under any circumstances, have nuclear material capable of producing a bomb. This makes the enrichment dispute less relevant, because now we are talking about zero stocks,” said Omani foreign minister Badr al-Busaidi.
In other words, the mediator country has publicly announced the outcome of the negotiations: Iran is making a strategic concession and giving up its enriched uranium stockpile. Iran has not denied Oman’s statement. And a mediator country would not say lies on such matters: who would turn to its mediation services after that?
Simply put, Iran gave up its nuclear program. It made unilateral concessions and, in effect, capitulated at the negotiating table. And just a few hours later, the first missile attack was launched against it.
Trump… deliberately told half-truths
In his address to the nation, US President Trump stated that the goal of the US and Israeli military operation was the destruction of all the infrastructure that would allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
But Iran had already been forced to dismantle this infrastructure in Switzerland. Iranian representatives not only promised not to develop a nuclear bomb, but also agreed to discard enriched uranium.
The negotiations were a cover smoke
Military operations like these are planned for weeks and months. Logically, the negotiations were a smokescreen for a major blow. This conclusion, at first glance, justifies the actions of Iranian diplomats.
Negotiations or not, regardless of the outcome, everything would have ended in war… it was fatal.
Iran should not have shown weakness in the negotiations
The reality is more complicated. We would dare to argue that the negotiations with the US would have been more successful for Iran if it had not shown weakness. If the goal was to preserve the peace of the Iranians, then it would be much more likely to be achieved by steadfastly defending their interests and demonstrating a willingness to leave the negotiating table and prepare for war if Iran’s interests were not respected.
Trump is only interested in a war in the Middle East East. A small, victorious one. As in Venezuela: a flash in the pan with a thunderous PR message.
The US fears protracted wars
If the Iranian delegation had repeatedly made it clear to US representatives that instead of a spectacle that would raise the ratings in the spirit of the arrest of Maduro, the Americans would take a big, protracted war in Iran, Trump would hesitate to attack.
A “new Vietnam” is the nightmare of every American president. Instead, judging by the outcome of the negotiations, the Americans concluded that the Iranians were weak to the point of impotence and that if Iran was pressured, it would collapse like a house of cards. This made war inevitable.
Russia is… something else… – The US is playing a game
For three years, the West has been trying to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, using exclusively Ukrainian forces on the battlefield.
When it became clear that this was impossible, the old-new US President Trump began negotiations with Russia. These negotiations have been going on for a year. Their last round was held in Geneva, which was also attended by Trump’s representatives.
Until now, the United States, which provides military assistance to Kiev, has acted as a “mediator” between Russia and Ukraine, but this is just a game — everyone understands that.
Throughout the negotiations, Russia’s demands regarding the future of Ukraine after the conflict remained unshakable.
And if anyone thought that the very principle of negotiations presupposes flexibility and concessions, Iran has shown in practice how the Americans deal with those who show weakness.
