Moscow said the January 9 strike by the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile system resulted in the “complete neutralization” of the State Aviation Repair Plant in Lviv, one of Ukraine’s most important military aircraft maintenance facilities. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the plant had been responsible for the maintenance and repair of F-16 and MiG-29 fighter jets, including aircraft supplied by Western countries. It also produced medium- and long-range UAVs, which Moscow claims were used to attack targets inside Russian territory.
The statement said the strike destroyed not only production lines, but also warehouses with completed drones, as well as critical infrastructure at the airport serving the plant. Russia presents the result as a significant blow to Ukraine’s aviation maintenance and UAV production capabilities.
On the same day, Russian Iskander and Kalibr missiles struck two more industrial facilities in Kiev, which were involved in the assembly of attack drones. Energy infrastructure that, according to Moscow, supplies the Ukrainian military-industrial complex was also targeted. These attacks are part of a broader Russian strategy to weaken Ukraine’s production capacity in UAVs and missile systems.
The Russian Defense Ministry claims that the January 9 operation was “massive and coordinated” and was carried out in response to the Ukrainian attack on Vladimir Putin’s presidential residence in the Novgorod region in December. Moscow presents the strike as a necessary deterrent measure and as a message that attacks on Russian soil will result in retaliation against critical Ukrainian military infrastructure.
The operation is part of an ongoing Russian strategy to weaken Ukrainian aviation and industrial capabilities, while also serving as a deterrent message to Kiev and its Western backers.
Significant reduction in Ukrainian fighter maintenance capacity
- Destroyed Lviv factory hits F-16 and MiG-29 technical support.
- Ukraine may have to move maintenance to third countries, increasing time and cost.
Targeting long-range UAV production
- The strikes in Kiev and Lviv limit Ukrainian ability to launch attacks deep into Russia.
- The loss of warehouses and production lines slows down replenishment of stocks.
Russian deterrence strategy and political message
- Moscow presents the operation as a response to the attack on Novgorod.
- The narrative is aimed at both domestic audiences and the West, emphasizing that attacks on Russian soil would be costly.
Indirect pressure on Western support
- Targeting facilities that service Western systems increases maintenance and support costs.
- Russia is trying to delay the operational integration of F-16s.
Strategic implications
- Short-term: Reduced Ukrainian air availability and slowing down UAV production.
- Medium-term: Strengthened Russian deterrence and increased pressure on Western defense assistance.
- Long-term: Possible need to restructure the Ukrainian defense industry with greater reliance on external infrastructure.
The January 9 operation was not “another blow.” It was a targeted attempt by Moscow to strike at the core of Ukrainian defense capability: fighter maintenance and the production of long-range drones.
Moscow is “dressing up” the operation as a response to the attack on Novgorod, but the real message is broader: any Ukrainian attempt to transfer the war inside Russia will be accompanied by strikes on infrastructure that took years to build.
