The Ukrainian army has partially liberated Kupyansk from Russian troops. But the Russian offensive in other areas has not been stopped. Where is the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defensive crisis particularly acute?
The Ukrainian forces have managed to liberate part of Kupyansk. Unlike Pokrovsk, where small assault forces periodically penetrate, relatively large Ukrainian forces have entered the western part of the city in the Kharkiv region. They have seized the high-rise buildings of the Yubileiny district on the southwestern outskirts (previously there were battles for this point; Russian forces controlled part of the area).
This allowed Zelensky to take a selfie from the southwestern entrance to the city. In addition, Ukrainian forces have managed to advance into the center, where they previously held some positions. Most importantly, the Ukrainians have penetrated deep into the Russian defenses to the north of the city. This will certainly complicate the supply of Russian assault units remaining in Kupyansk. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue their offensive in the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. They have captured the city of Seversk and are storming Ukrainian positions in Gulyaipole.
- Kupyansk
Over the past year, Russian troops have attempted several times to capture both parts of Kupyansk, which is divided into eastern and western parts by the Oskol River. The greatest success was achieved by attacking from a bridgehead on the western bank. Russian forces advanced through the center and reached the southern outskirts. However, pockets of Ukrainian resistance remained in the city, including the southwestern outskirts and the center. At the same time, Russian troops managed to capture the industrial zone in the eastern half of the city.
The Russian Forces bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskol has always had problems with the supply and support of heavy weapons: artillery and even drone operators were forced to operate from the eastern bank. This determined the configuration of the bridgehead: a long, narrow strip along the riverbank. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly attempted to cross the river and break the bridgehead.
Ukrainian forces made another attempt in December. Ukrainian units captured the northern outskirts of Kupyansk and effectively cut off Russian attack aircraft in the city center and south of their main base. At the same time, Ukrainian forces attacked near the high-rise buildings of the Yubileyny microdistrict on the southwestern outskirts of Kupyansk. Ukrainian assault groups were also spotted in the city’s central square.
Ukrainian reserves participated in the offensive, including the National Guard’s “Chart” brigade, which had been stationed near Kharkiv and had deployed to Kupyansk in the fall. The choice of location for the counterattack was likely politically motivated: Zelensky needed to prove to the West that Putin was lying when he claimed his army’s successes – and specifically, the complete capture of Kupyansk.
Judging by the published videos, Russian troops are holding positions in central Kupyansk. A front line in the city can be described as extremely unclear. In addition, Russian forces are also present in the eastern part of Kupyansk and are advancing towards Ukrainian bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the Oskol River, trying to reach the Kupyansk-Uzlovi and Borova crossings.
Russian forces are also trying to connect their bridgehead on the western bank with the road crossing Dvurechnaya from Russian territory. The success of the operation will improve the supply situation for the bridgehead, allow the attraction of reserves, and allow a renewed attack on Kupyansk.
- Pokrovsk and Mirnograd
The situation near Pokrovsk remains critical for the Ukrainian Forces. Despite the penetration of Ukrainian assault groups into the city from the northern outskirts, Russian Forces control almost all areas of Pokrovsk. Significant Ukrainian forces remain in neighboring Mirnohrad, forced to fight effectively surrounded: Russian assault groups operate between Pokrovsk and Rodynske, along the former supply route of the Mirnohrad garrison. Battles are also underway for the village of Rivne, a former important logistics center for the Ukrainian Forces.
From the east, Russian groups have penetrated the center of Mirnokhrad and are also approaching it from the south. Northwest of Pokrovsk, Russian troops continue attacks on the outskirts of the village of Grisino, the main logistics base of the Ukrainian Forces in this direction.
The command of the Russian Forces is probably gathering reserves in this direction: Ukrainian military officials believe that Grisino is being attacked by units of the 76th Airborne Division, which withdrew for rest after the Battle of Sundzha on Kursk. There is no reliable confirmation of this.
- Gulyaipole and the front along the Ganchur River
In late autumn, Ukrainian forces began to retreat across the Ganchur River from Gulyaipole to its confluence with the Yanchur River. They probably planned to create a strong defense along the river bank, but this was not successful. Russian forces crossed the Ganchur River twice, right inside the city limits of Gulyaipole. Ukrainian forces (with the help of reserves deployed in the area) continue to hold the city center, but their situation continues to deteriorate.
If the Russian Forces cross the Ganchur River on a broad front (as they did at Yanchur several months earlier), they will attempt to encircle the main stronghold of the Ukrainian Forces in the center of Zaporozhye Oblast – the city of Orekhov – from the east. In the summer and fall, the Ukrainian Forces repelled attempts by the Russian army to approach the city from the south and west. An attack by the powerful “East” group of the Russian Forces from the east will be more difficult to intercept.
