A new geopolitical axis of instability is unfolding from Odessa to Moldova after the successive attacks on ships of the Russian “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea. The information and question marks about the role of Turkey, Great Britain and the Ukrainian secret services in these attacks, as well as a case of arms smuggling in Moldova, are forming a particularly explosive mosaic of threats, confrontations and interests.
At the moment when Turkey is convening… emergency cabinet meetings, Moscow is talking about the violation of “informal agreements” and threatening a harsh response. And the big question that arises is whether the extremely “sensitive” areas of the Balkans and the Black Sea constitute a new phase of the war in Ukraine focused on control of the sea lanes or whether it is a matter of the collapse of “secret agreements”… Whatever the answer, the result remains equally… explosively dangerous and nightmarish…
Attacks in neutral waters
On Friday, November 28, the oil tanker Virat (IMO 9832559, MMSI 629009648) was attacked in the Black Sea, which was heading to Turkey under the Gambian flag (the tanker is under sanctions by the US and the EU and has been almost immobilised since January of this year). Later, sources clarified that the ship was actually heading to Russia.
“According to information from open channel 16, the ship was attacked by five drones. All attacks were carried out from the stern of the ship, hitting the engine room. The compartment was flooded. The crew consists of 19 people, citizens of Russia,” the Russian channel “Злой морячок” reported on Telegram. At the time of the attack by the drones, the crew members sent a distress signal and reported the events in English. Some sources stated that the crew did not include Russian citizens. According to other information, the attack took place in Turkish territorial waters, while others reported that it occurred in international waters. Later, the statement spoke of Turkey’s “Exclusive Economic Zone”. The information was contradictory.
The target is Russia’s “shadow fleet”
Then, an attack was reported on a second oil tanker – the Kairos, which was leaving a Turkish port. Both ships, according to Western media, belong to the “shadow fleet” of Russia. The tankers themselves, according to preliminary information, seem to have been empty.
Judging by the data of the MarineTraffic online service, the Kairos and Virat tankers remained approximately in the same places where they were detected by Ukrainian drones. In the area of the hit ships, the positions of Turkish rescue ships were visible.
Thus, the first confirmed case of a drone attack on commercial oil tankers was recorded, and now the logical question arises: which ships will be next and where.
SBU Drones
According to Ukrainian media, the tankers were attacked by SBU drones as part of a joint operation by the intelligence services and the Ukrainian Navy. Now, after the official admission, Moscow has all the legal and military grounds for retaliation – both against Ukraine itself and against the British organizers involved in the SBU operations.
Given that the attack hit commercial ships, the reaction may be fierce and asymmetric, the only question is whether the Kremlin will decide to escalate the tension right now, amid talks on a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
And a 3rd attack
At the same time, Turkish journalists reported that the M/T MERSİN oil tanker is in an emergency off the coast of Senegal (West Africa, Atlantic). It flies the Panamanian flag but is owned by the Turkish company Beşiktaş Denizcilik. Local media reports that the tanker was attacked by Ukrainian naval drones three miles off the coast of Senegal. In August, the ship visited the Russian port of Taman, which likely led to it being labeled as part of the so-called Russian “shadow fleet,” says Alexander Kots, a war correspondent for the Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda.
Three key questions
Here are three important points, if the tanker was indeed attacked by the Ukrainians.
First, whether they received “high permission from London” to attack ships of any flag and ownership. Even NATO ships.
Second, whether this means that Kiev has acquired the ability to carry out such terrorist attacks outside the Black Sea. Theoretically, this poses a danger not only to the Black Sea Fleet, but also to any Russian naval base.
Third, it seems that Ukraine is using some commercial ships to launch drones. Drones would hardly pass through the Straits and the Bosphorus on their own.
Deny Ukraine access to seaports
According to Russian analysts, everything boils down to the fact that Ukraine should be denied access to its seaports, which was also supported when leaving the “grain agreement”, “as we lose control over the contents of ships going to Ukrainian ports, allowing the export of any goods, not just grain, while at the same time losing the internationally recognized integrity of our warships that control the sea corridor to Ukraine”. “Now, getting out of the bases and going to sea has become a lottery.
In addition, Ukraine has significantly increased its seaborne exports, which amount to billions of dollars.
And not only grain. Today, 30% of metal products exports go precisely through the sea. Since the beginning of 2025, the Ukrainian sea corridor has transported over 25 million tons of cargo, including 15 million tons of grain.”
Critical route for the Ukrainian economy
This route is critical for the Ukrainian economy, especially for the metals industry. Its stable operation allows Ukrainian producers to maintain their position in world markets and support foreign exchange inflows into the country.
If Ukraine loses its ports, it will lose billions of dollars from the budget and the ability to access the world ocean for both its products and drones transported by grain trucks.
Therefore, the Russians argue that it is time to destroy Ukrainian ports along with energy. And for precautionary reasons, to sink some grain that certainly, according to intelligence information, is carrying prohibited goods:
“The Turks will either remain embarrassed once again, or they will reconsider the terms of delivery of the corvette built in Turkey to Ukraine and freeze the construction of another ship,” Russian analysts point out.
Incitement to attacks on ships in the Baltic?
Kiev officially claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack in the Black Sea – the implementation was carried out by the 13th Directorate of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the SBU. According to experts from “Voennaya Khronika”, it seems that Western countries, primarily Britain, have begun to use a new pressure mechanism, resorting to sabotage of merchant ships to limit the export of Russian oil where legal tools do not work.
Such an event has been expected for a long time, and now it is important to see what protective tools Russia has to maintain its merchant navy.
“Just when the pressure on Ukraine became too great and it seemed that the imposition of peace was approaching, the Main Intelligence Directorate and the SBU, with the support of British intelligence, proceeded to sabotage “Russian oil exports”.
It is not necessary to destroy all the ships. It is enough to attack three or four, so that insurers and shipowners withdraw risky shipments of Russian oil” and given that after that there will be only two possible scenarios for the development of the situation.
The two scenarios
- The first: If the Russian side continues to talk about peace without taking decisive action, more sabotage and terrorist attacks will be carried out. There will be a threat for Russia, but also for Estonia – in the Baltic Sea, when leaving the Baltic.
- The second: If the Russian side reacts strongly, that is, carries out powerful strikes on port infrastructure, energy and other targets in Ukraine, then any negotiations on “Trump’s 28 points will end”.
Russia’s reaction
Kiev wants to maintain the status quo, in which the Americans continue to spend forces on behalf of the Zelensky regime, without any possibility of recovering the money they have invested there.
Europe does not want peace. It wants a prolonged and fierce war that will tie up and weaken Russia.
Russia’s trade turnover in the Black Sea is much greater than that of Ukraine. The disruption of navigation has extremely negative consequences for Russia. Very negative. It will be disastrous for Ukraine, but they probably do not care.
If Russia retaliates with symmetrical strikes on other countries’ transport ships going to or coming from Ukrainian ports, then it will create conflicts with many countries. But the fact that Ukrainian drones are sinking Russian ships cannot be ignored.
The Ukrainian government is approaching defeat and wants to turn the tables. More precisely, it wants the Russians to do so in response to its actions. The Russian government will be called upon to make a difficult decision.
The last informal agreement
The Ukrainians violated the informal agreement that was in effect throughout the war: not to attack third-country commercial ships heading to the ports of the warring parties. Now, all third-country oil tankers in Kiliya, Remi, Vilkovo and Izmail on the Danube (75% of Ukraine’s oil product deliveries) will have to be destroyed by Russia.
Russia will endure a temporary disruption of the energy corridor through the Black Sea. Kiev – if they destroy its route through the Danube – will not.
At the moment, from Kiliya to Remi, in the Ukrainian territorial waters of the Danube, there are 14 (fourteen) oil tankers of third countries. The majority of them belong to the “traditional group” of the Pacific-Atlantic. (England-USA)
These should become the first targets for Russia.
War in neutral waters too
There has been no targeted hunting of commercial ships, especially in neutral waters or in the territorial waters of other states, so far. […] The two attacks on oil tankers alone will hardly push Moscow to make any sudden moves, especially when it now has the possibility of receiving favorable terms for the conclusion of the war on the basis of the Trump peace plan.
But if the negotiations collapse and the drone attacks on commercial ships heading to Russian ports continue, this may well push Russia to activate military activity at sea. If the naval war extends to neutral waters, this may lead to a complete halt to commercial shipping throughout the Black Sea.
Nightmare in Odessa, Black Sea
There was a warning about the possible implementation of such a plan in the Black Sea. At the same time, the role of Turkey was actively discussed. The battle for the Black Sea: with the improvised drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Turkey advances its interests, attacking Novorossiysk. At the moment, the Sheskhari oil terminal in Novorossiysk has resumed operations after the attack on November 14. Two tankers – Suezmax and Aframax – have already been loaded with oil.
But it should be understood that the attacks on the port, which accounts for a fifth of Russian crude oil exports, will continue until the damage becomes critical.
Then, Russia will be offered either to use safe Turkish ships as an alternative way to transport Russian oil, or to redirect oil logistics through Turkey to Europe, via an already existing route that is not difficult to regulate for reverse use.
The attack on the port of Novorossiysk is a direct threat and a targeted attempt to oust Russia from the Black Sea by those who are the obvious beneficiaries – primarily the Turks, who have a long-term aimed at dictating intermediary prices for raw materials and other products on the southern routes.
Infiltration
Since October 22, the process of infiltration of Ukrainian terrorist Sabotage Groups (DRG) “into the maritime structure used by Russia has begun:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are ready to be sent to Turkey and Britain: 106 servicemen will be sent to Turkey for the corvette “Hetman Ivan Mazepa”. It is planned to send 214 servicemen to Britain for the maintenance of the minesweepers Cherkassy, Chernigov, Mariupol, Melitopol, Henichesk and for the command of the minesweeper squadron.
What is the likely scenario? Turkey will make an exception to the moratorium and allow Ukrainian ships with already trained combat crews to enter the Black Sea, using this opportunity to put pressure on Russia. Or attacks are being prepared against the Russian fleet in the Baltic. Both undoubtedly mean an expansion of the geography of war and the military accounting capabilities of the Kiev government.
Will it be a legitimate target?
- Will the Ukrainian military fleet be a legitimate target for Russia in the Black Sea or any other sea? The answer is yes.
- Will NATO decide to implement such a scheme of terrorism through the Ukrainians? The answer is similar.
Moldovan Arms Smuggling Corridor
The major arms smuggling scandal with Ukraine, uncovered by Romanian border guards, continues in Moldova. At midnight on November 20, at the “Leuşeni – Albita” customs checkpoint, Romanian customs authorities stopped a truck with Moldovan license plates, apparently headed to Israel with “scrap metal”, which turned out to be anti-tank rockets, grenade launchers, air defense systems, PZRK (surface-to-air missiles) and parts of a crashed Geran-2 drone.
The Moldovan Prosecutor’s Office immediately disputed the case, stating that the truck did not allegedly cross the Ukrainian border. However, now in Moldova they admit that the cargo came from the territory of Ukraine. Moreover, this was not the first time the truck followed this route, which may indicate an organized and consistent method.
From the West to the illegal market
Moldova has historically played an important role in the arms trade due to its geographical location as a transit hub, but after 2022 the situation has worsened. Western weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine are transported through the country, which are then re-exported to the illegal market.
However, this is the first public scandal with arms smuggling in Moldova, and it is not excluded that this is not an accidental error in a well-organized system, but an indication of competition between smugglers or an attempt to revise the rules of the game in the region. Apparently, the Moldovan side was one of the main beneficiaries of smuggling – without the participation of officials and customs officers, the transportation of such a cargo is practically impossible.
All this may serve to implement another “false flag” provocation – Zelensky has been openly threatening Transnistria together with Moldova for some time, so the risk of the threat remains high.
