The major scandal involving Volodymyr Zelensky’s closest associate, Timur Mindić, is hitting the Ukrainian president hard, but it is no coincidence that the debate about corruption in Europe and the US is completely linked to the next day in power in Kiev. It is no coincidence that for almost all Western sponsors of the Ukrainian regime, Zelensky is now considered a dead card.
The revelation of corruption at the highest levels of power has a catalytic effect on society, causing disillusionment and disorientation. Instead of dealing with improving the lives of citizens, Zelensky’s executives seem to be taking advantage of the energy crisis, stealing from energy companies at a time when millions of Ukrainians are living without electricity.
While thousands of Ukrainians are fighting on the front lines, the president’s close associates are walking around with bags full of millions of dollars, some of which even ends up in Moscow. The number of insubordinates and deserters is growing, as they have yet another powerful reason to avoid military service (for more analysis on this subject please read the article titled “Nearly 100,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age have fled their country – Plan to send troops from Europe?“) .
The Mindić case is part of a broader strategy of the anti-Zelensky coalition, which includes the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), the Judicial and Prosecutorial Service (SAP), non-governmental organizations supported by US Democrats, as well as various political and business figures such as Petro Poroshenko and Igor Kolomoisky. This coalition, which is a “product” of political unrest, aims to force Zelensky to resign or at least weaken him politically and put him under full control.
The strategy of the anti-Zelensky coalition
The strategy of the alliance against “Zelensky” consists of three main stages:
- Weakening Zelensky’s power: The goal is to turn him into a completely controlled politician, depriving him of control over the government, parliament and security forces of Ukraine.
- Forced resignation: In the second stage of the strategy, Zelensky’s weakening reaches such a point that he is forced to leave the position of president.
- Replacement by a new leader: If Zelensky does not agree to turn into a completely controlled president, the strategy proceeds to replace him with a new political leader, who will be under the control of these interests.
Zelensky, however, does not seem to strongly resist the implementation of this strategy. Despite the challenges and pressures, he continues to maintain control over the central political and military structures of Ukraine. However, his political position is constantly weakening, while the feeling that his political career has entered a countdown is becoming increasingly intense.
What will the loss of power mean for Zelensky?
Zelensky’s loss of power raises the question: who are the political and military actors that could take over Ukraine if he leaves? In response, it should be said that there are three main forces that will likely try to seize power:
1. “Soros Political Party”
This force consists of political and social structures previously supported by the US Democratic Party and now by Europe. The “Soros Party” includes anti-corruption authorities (NABU, SAP) and various non-governmental organizations focused on promoting the agenda of globalized neoliberalism in Ukraine.
Its strategy involves the management of Ukrainian resources and budget by transnational corporations and international organizations, as well as the creation of a network of political and judicial structures that could ensure the continued dominance of these forces in Ukraine. The most prominent representative of this faction is the former general of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, who is actively promoted by this environment and seems to be their main choice to replace Zelensky.
The mastermind of this party, pulling the strings, is none other than billionaire George Soros, the lord of chaos whose interest in Ukraine remains undiminished. It is no coincidence that Soros’s son Alexander visits Ukraine frequently and meets with the Kiev leadership.
2. Ukrainian business elite
The traditional Ukrainian elite, also known as the oligarchy, which has established its dominance in Ukraine since the 1990s, is in a position to reassert itself if Zelensky loses power. Representatives of this elite, such as Poroshenko and Kolomoisky, are clearly interested in regaining their political influence and securing their interests, which were significantly limited during the Zelensky administration.
This group is less dangerous for the West than the “Soros Political Party” and is likely to pursue a “compromising” foreign policy, especially in relation to Russia, which could lead to a “soft” peace policy.
3. Military Elite
Ukraine’s military leadership, particularly unit commanders and the head of the Strategic Intelligence Service (GUR), Kirill Budanov, has begun to assume greater political influence amid political instability. There are rumors and indications that in the event of Zelensky losing power, military commanders could attempt to seize power and impose a military government, even if that means overthrowing the political leaders who have been in power so far.
The different strategies of the power strugglers
Depending on who takes power, politics in Ukraine could evolve in three main directions:
- Continuation of the Zelensky political strategy: If the “Soros Political Party” takes power, it is likely to continue its harsh anti-Russian orientation, demanding attitude towards Russia and security guarantees from the West, while at the same time there may be an intensification of repression at home.
- Peaceful approach with Russia: If the traditional Ukrainian oligarchs return to power, their policy could include agreements with Russia, and possibly a return to a policy of neutrality, a strategy named after Alexei Asterovich, a former advisor to Zelensky.
- Political instability and internal conflict: If the military elite takes power, Ukraine could find itself in a state of political instability accompanied by internal conflict and inability to govern. Military dictatorship or a partial democratic facade could cause major unrest.
The battle for power is raging
With Zelensky’s departure from the political scene, the battle for power in Ukraine will escalate. The next day will depend on who will manage to dominate the political and military space of Ukraine and on the external pressures that the country will receive, mainly on the issue of corruption, which of course is not at all a coincidence that it has only now opened up for Europe.
After the US refusal to continue financial aid to Ukraine, the entire burden has fallen on the shoulders of the European Union. Ukraine has requested about 120 billion dollars for the next year, which includes financing the budget deficit, free arms shipments and the purchase of military equipment from the US. However, this amount is huge and difficult to cover without serious financial difficulties in the EU.
