The US-backed NATO, Pakistan, and the “Asian Hemisphere/Containment” that includes Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines are poised to confront Russia, India, and China throughout this century. The US has been sending mixed messages about the Sino-Russian alignment, which was bolstered by the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline deal, with Trump saying in September that he was “not worried” about it, while Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said he had asked him to “re-establish deterrence” against them.
However, Trump’s Eurasian balance has failed, largely because of this development, which included tacit approval of India amid its rapprochement with China.
The pawns are being set…
Instead of remaining divided, especially with regard to China and India and all the complications that their ongoing rivalry for the balance of Russia entails, the three most powerful cultural powers of Eurasia are increasingly coming together to revive the Russia-India-China (RIC) front.
This platform is important in its own right, but it is also crucial for the BRICS and the SCO, which play complementary roles in the gradual transformation of global governance. These processes of multipolarity accelerated by the RIC cannot be countered by direct military force, but the way in which the US Pentagon can try to delay everything is by provoking nuclear arms races.
US military buildups through NATO, Pakistan and the “Asian Hemisphere/Limit” (Japan-Taiwan-Philippines) (some only in the case of Pakistan) could help with this, vis-à-vis Russia, India and China, as could enhanced US military presences (or a formal return to Pakistan) in each of them.
Common interests
Equally, the “Golden Dome”, medium-range missile deployments in their regions and increased militarization of outer space could put additional pressure on Russia and China to this end, although these moves could also backfire, by strengthening military-technical cooperation between these two countries.
To be clear, Russia and China are not allies who would fight for each other, but their shared strategic and military interests increase the likelihood that they would support each other in the event of war. So far, China has avoided sending military-technical assistance to Russia due to its complex interdependence with the West, but Trump’s trade war, the accusation that President Xi Jinping is “plotting” against the US, and the Pentagon’s plans for the “Asian Hemisphere/Containment” may lead to a reassessment of this policy.
Similarly, Russia may feel comfortable sharing advanced military knowledge with China to counter American moves in Japan, which could extend to their common ally, North Korea.
Pakistan’s Role
Although most of Pakistan’s military equipment comes from China, the US may enter this market if Chinese exports decline due to the China-India rapprochement, which could also lead to a reduction in US exports to India, forcing the US to replace them with exports to Pakistan.
Russia may even regain its traditional role as India’s largest supplier if exports to it increase in response to US exports to Pakistan, in a de facto revival of the region’s Cold War-era military capabilities. All these strategic dynamics create the ground for a security dilemma between the Eurasian Periphery (NATO, Pakistan and the “Asian Hemisphere/Containment”) and the Eurasian Heartland (RIC), which is instigated by the US to “re-establish deterrence” against the China-Russia Unity.
The aim is to pressure one of them or their common Indian partner to surrender to the US, so that they can then divide and dominate the transcontinental space. This hegemonic plan will define the geopolitics of Eurasia in the 21st century.
