The international political scene is ready to welcome the next meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump in Budapest by 7/11, with the prospects for reaching a strategic agreement on a range of issues – geopolitical and economic – more realistic than ever.
Amid growing pressure and tensions between the two powerful leaders, Budapest offers a new opportunity to lay the foundations for a more stable strategic partnership, following their meeting in Alaska.
This meeting, however, takes place in an extremely tense geostrategic landscape, which not only determines the negotiating positions of the two sides, but also the growing concern that external powers – especially Britain and Ukraine – could provoke artificial crises to drag the two great powers into war.
Strategic cooperation
Before their previous meeting on August 15 in Alaska, Putin and Trump’s vision of a strategic partnership based on resources seemed feasible. Putin had stressed the need to freeze the front lines in Ukraine, while Trump, with his influence, could pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to withdraw from the Donbass. However, neither Putin was willing to make concessions, nor could Trump force the required withdrawal from Ukraine.
Worse, the Europeans, with the support of the British and Zelensky, took action by proposing dangerous “security guarantees,” which irritated Russia and made negotiations even more difficult.
The US government, under the pressure of events and increasing strategic pressure, found itself taking a tougher line towards Russia, with Trump intensifying his rhetoric, likely due to the influence exerted on him by Senator Lindsey Graham and Zelensky.
Horrifying revelations from Russian espionage
Today, however, the geopolitical situation is even more complex and fraught with new challenges for all sides. On the Russian side, Turkey’s new “TRIPP” strategy, which increases NATO’s influence in the Caucasus region and Central Asia, as well as Poland’s resurgence as a major power in Eastern Europe, are intensifying geopolitical pressures.
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service even revealed that French and British forces are already in the Odessa region of Ukraine, which intensifies Russia’s concerns about Western strategy.
On the other hand, the US is under increasing pressure from the dynamic tightening of relations between China and India, while Russia has concluded a major agreement with Beijing on the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline, which strengthens Moscow’s position on the Eurasian chessboard. The failure of Trump’s policy of balance in the region brings the US closer to a strategic decision that will decisively affect its future policy.
This geostrategic environment may lead to unpredictable situations, as Russia and the US risk being dragged into a war due to ongoing provocations.
Russian intelligence has warned of possible provocations in the Baltics, while there is already a precedent with the drone operation in Poland, which was used to drag the country’s new president into a military conflict with Russia.
Soon, Ukraine is reportedly planning a new incident in Poland, which could cause serious tensions. Russia and the US, if they are not careful, may be involved in a conflict that would go beyond their national lines.
British provocations
Britain, having a decisive role in European and international affairs, and especially with its relationship with the US and the European Union, has an interest in weakening Russia and strengthening its presence in the Eastern European region.
- Creating an immediate threat: Britain could organize an operation that would appear to be a Russian attack on NATO territory or an allied state, such as Poland or the Baltic states. This operation could include a fake “Russian attack” or “airspace violation” to trigger NATO’s “Article 5,” which calls for automatic military assistance from other member states in the event of an attack on a member state.
- Involvement in the North and Black Seas: In these seas, the presence of British ships near Russian zones of influence, and the launching of virtual attacks or provocative actions, can “target” Russia and create a cause for war or at least tension with strategic
The Zelensky Regime’s Plans
Ukraine, with the Zelensky regime and its continued efforts to bolster international support, could turn to provocations to achieve specific goals, notably increasing Western military aid and isolating Russia.
- Frontline provocations: Ukraine could create small-scale hostilities or instigate a strategic offensive, which would appear to be a “Russian violation” of agreements, with the aim of creating the impression that Russia is responsible for any escalation. For example, if Ukraine creates a phase of tension in Donbass or Crimea, Russia could respond with limited military action, which Ukrainians would exploit to reinforce the narrative of “Russian aggression.”
- Threats against Poland and the Baltics: Ukraine, knowing that NATO and the US have a stronger strategic presence in Poland and the Baltics, could create an “external” threat to drag the region into a more active conflict, which would justify full NATO involvement.
Strategic Choice – Budapest is a Turning Point
Amid these geostrategic pressures, the meeting between Putin and Trump in Budapest offers a unique opportunity to reach a strategic agreement.
A possible compromise could include limited Western “security guarantees” for Ukraine, with Russia agreeing to some gradual acceptance of Western influence in the region, while the US would limit its military supplies to Ukraine and NATO.
Another possible scenario involves an agreement to cut off the front in Donbass and Zelensky’s possible withdrawal from areas annexed by Russia.
Limited agreements, such as Russia working with the US to “manage” the Iran issue in order to create a positive climate for Trump, could facilitate such an agreement.
Thus, while the Budapest Summit may prove more successful than the Alaska Summit, potential internal and external challenges remain a deterrent.
Zelensky and Europe
A direction may have been agreed upon bilaterally, but European leaders, especially the British, continue to be an obstacle to any peaceful settlement process.
Zelensky immediately after his talks with Trump on 17/10/2025 contacted leaders of European states, citing the “substantial” change in the US president’s stance.
The British, in particular, insisted that support for Ukraine should continue, albeit with some concessions to their policy.
Zelensky’s statements after the meeting with Trump were cautious and moved in the direction of maintaining “security guarantees,” while at the same time identifying their differences, such as the issue of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
The Putin-Trump meeting in Budapest will be crucial for the development of the Ukrainian issue and Donald Trump’s strategy towards Russia.
While the challenges are great, the geostrategic environment creates a unique opportunity for negotiation and a possible agreement that could reduce tensions and prevent further escalation of the conflict. However, the risks remain high, and the game of international politics remains fluid.
