The recent summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was one of the most important in history, due to the escalation of the international situation in the transitional phase in which the global system is. And if it managed to send a planetary message, it is that the “era of brute dictation” of behaviors and choices has passed irrevocably. With all that this entails. For anyone who can understand it, decode it in detail and adjust their behavior accordingly. No exceptions. As long as they have national self-respect.
Recently and on the occasion of the efforts to end the war in Ukraine, one of the most important news stories concerned the imposition of harsh American tariffs on India, due to its trade transactions with Russia in the energy sector. It was a punitive measure, with the justification that this mutually profitable trade maintains and fuels the Russian war machine, as it invests the profits in its defense industry, while at the same time fending off the more general economic war that exists through Western sanctions.
The SCO summit was the most suitable ground for the Indian response. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, without officially commenting on the American decision during this time, chose to give his response in practice, during the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The image and the words used are irrefutable witnesses to the conclusion, as reflected in the introductory paragraph. Although India will remain open to consultation with the US…
During the bilateral meeting and talks in the Chinese port city of Tianjin on the sidelines of the SCO summit, the Indian heard the Russian call him a “dear friend” and say that bilateral relations were developing dynamically. According to a video released by the Kremlin, which captured the apparently positive atmosphere, Modi responded by expressing hope for a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine war. He made sure to add, however, that the two countries stand by each other in difficult times! And as a “cherry”, he drove Modi in the presidential car!
Just as Trump had done with Putin. The semantics and indirect messages are multiple. Just as the warm personal relationship between an American and a Russian is not forbidden, despite major disagreements, so too cannot the one between a Russian and an Indian be “forbidden.” Much less… punished!
Informal “Mega League”
Incidentally, if the -imaginarily- united Europe had self-respect, plus a serious and sustainable strategy on the issue of Ukraine, it should have reacted to the Trump-Putin courtesies in Alaska. Not to attend the White House under the conditions that the photos from the meeting betrayed. However, their acceptance sent a message about how the Old Continent perceives the issues of the informal planetary hierarchy. Today’s Europe, unfortunately, knows that it does not belong to the informal “super league” where the USA, China and Russia participate, but even secondarily India also participates.
As Putin’s attitude towards Modi demonstrated, in this “first category” you have to be accepted, by practically imposing your presence. China has also accepted this, even though India is a geostrategic competitor with which it has clashed militarily in the past (1962 and 2020 in the Himalayas in a limited conflict), while on the issue of India-Pakistan relations, Beijing is a strategic ally of Islamabad.
Geopolitical prize
Washington seems to be uncomfortable with the inclusion of New Delhi. However, its participation is imposed by the other two. This result proves the correctness of the Indian strategy of transforming the country into a kind of “geopolitical prize” in the post-Cold War era. India refuses to align itself with anyone, but without excluding anyone either. It considers this a right and defends it.
In this way, without making a big deal of it, New Delhi has provoked an informal competition, mainly between Washington and Moscow, over who will have more influence. A president of Trump’s temperament cannot easily digest this, resulting in the unscrupulous and tactical action of imposing tariffs.
India faced their imposition with absolute calm, knowing that reality is relentless. A realistic assessment of the situation indicates that it is only a matter of time before the American decision brings the opposite results to those expected by its initiators. And the negative consequences are not limited exclusively to relations with Russia, but also extend to China.
The common interest of the two countries is the refusal to accept instructions and orders from anyone. Understanding the limits, they have set themselves for the emerging multipolar world. The USA and China are far from the third in terms of power. But at least for the time being, Beijing’s choice is not a new bipolarity. Realistically approaching the issue, it believes that other powers also have a place at this “super league” table.
Moreover, real power is demonstrated on the field. In today’s world, no matter how powerful someone is, if counter-groups are provoked, they can balance them. If not neutralize them. In this regard, China and India will not stop buying Russian oil because Washington is trying to achieve this through the method of coercion and intimidation. They are communicating in practice that they are ready to face the pressures.
In the arms of China too?
However, the US stance now seems to be giving momentum to a trend of rapprochement between New Delhi and Beijing that had become apparent from the meeting of the two leaders in October 2024 in Kazan, Russia. Shortly before Trump took over the reins in the US. In other words, in addition to Russia, the Americans are now “throwing the Indians into the arms” of the Chinese!
The words of the Chinese president during the meeting with the Indian prime minister were absolutely characteristic: The world is changing, the time has come for the dragon and the elephant to walk together. We represent 3 billion people! It is not necessary for this to happen between the two countries. However, these reports show a trend… For now, they have announced the resumption of direct flights between the two countries that had been suspended for the last five years.
And it’s not just the issue of Russian oil and the tariffs that were imposed. The Indians accuse the Americans of general “ingratitude” and a shift towards Pakistan. In short, New Delhi is unhappy with Washington and, without exaggeration, is making sure to convey this through its actions.
The results of USA Foreign policy
The Trump Administration’s foreign policy has sought to distance Russia from China’s influence, sacrificing
- Ukraine,
- the close alliance with the EU, and
- the credibility of NATO.
The result? Russia and China have never been closer, India with its frivolous tariff policies has now come dangerously close to Beijing, EU countries no longer trust him, and Ukraine considers Donald Trump a Putin agent.
Unfortunately, the results show a high level of amateurish-narcissistic diplomacy on the part of President Trump’s administration. The Chinese would never in their wildest dreams imagine such an incompetent American president helping them so much with his continuous mistakes to gain global primacy.
Erdogan is copying…
This is how the current international system works. And by the way, let us recall that Erdogan was also present at the SCO summit with observer status. It is no exaggeration to remind anyone that he is copying the Indian strategy, attempting to turn Turkey into a “geopolitical prize”. However, India, in addition to being larger in size, is also a status quo country. It is not revisionist.
However, within the framework of the same logic that governs relations between the great powers, the Russian Putin, who met with Erdogan, made sure to overemphasize the positives of Russian-Turkish relations, to end up with “strategic energy cooperation”! And instead of the relations and equipment of the Ukrainians, he praised the availability for a Turkish mediation role!
No, it is neither hypocrisy nor willful blindness on the part of Russia, but the tactical serving of its national interest at the present juncture. But why is this question being asked? Because of the developing strategic cooperation between Greece and India. A cooperation that the US and the West in general should support, creating a strong bond with India through Greece.
