The downing of an Indian Rafale fighter jet by a Pakistani -Chinese-made- J-10CE that used the long-range PL-15 air-to-air missile, is an event that has raised concerns not only in India, but in every country, about the future of air conflicts.
The critical conflict began after midnight, as May 7, 2025, began, when the screens at the Pakistan Air Force operations headquarters were filled with indications, showing the appearance of dozens of Indian aircraft on their side of the border, in Kashmir. The Chief of the Pakistan Air Force, Wing Commander Zaheer Sidhu, had already spent days sleeping on a mattress near the operations room, expecting an Indian attack.
Tensions between the two countries had escalated after a deadly attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi blamed on a Pakistan-backed terrorist group. India vowed retaliation, which began with airstrikes in the early hours of May 7. Sidhu, for his part, ordered Pakistani jets, including Chinese-made J-10Cs, also known as Vigorous Dragons, to take off.
The battle, which lasted about an hour and took place in the middle of the night, involved about 110 aircraft from both sides, making it the largest aerial conflict in decades.
1. And it is noteworthy that neither side crossed the border, so it was all fought from a long distance, another first. There, a Rafale was also shot down by a J-10C, using a PL-15 missile.
2. However, this Pakistani success was also due to a combination of factors, the main one being the failure of the Indian intelligence service to correctly assess the capabilities of this particular weapon. The Indian pilots believed that they were outside the range of the Pakistani missiles, which they believed reached 150 kilometers, based on the then known specifications of the export version of the PL-15.
3. However, the missile that hit the Rafale is reported to have been launched from a distance of about 200 kilometers, according to Pakistani officials, or even greater, according to Indians. This also shows China’s technological progress in the field (ed., but also possibly that Pakistan had been given the most advanced versions of the PL-15 by the Chinese, which were supposedly not for export).
The situation was worsened by Pakistan’s successful electronic attack, which seems to have “jammed” the Indian air defense systems. Pakistani officials reported that they used an advanced electronic warfare system to disrupt Indian communications and radars, reducing the situational awareness of Indian pilots. However, Indian officials deny that this happened, at least with the Rafale, but admit that there were problems with the systems of the Indian Air Force’s Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30, which are now being upgraded.
4. Also critical was Pakistan’s ability to create an effective “kill chain,” a network connecting air, ground, and space sensors, which gave its J-10Cs the critical advantage they needed. Here, Pakistan’s Link 17 tactical communications system provided the J-10Cs with information from airborne Saab 2000 Erieye radars, allowing them to fly without activating their radars, making them undetectable by Indian ESM systems and Rafale RWR receivers. While the missile could have received information during its flight, with target update data, again without having to activate the radars of the J-10s that launched it.
5. The attack was also facilitated by the fact that India had concentrated many of its aircraft in a relatively small airspace, so there were “plenty of targets” for the Pakistanis (another lesson in tactics).
6. An additional element of the conflict was mentioned by the deputy chief of the Indian Army, Major General Rahul Singh, who accused Pakistan of receiving “real-time information” from China during the battle, implying that Beijing was providing data from its own radars and satellite surveillance.
Pakistan denies these accusations, while China has described its general military cooperation with Islamabad as “normal.” However, this was followed in July by a visit by the Chinese Air Force chief, Major General Wang Gang, to Pakistan, to discuss the tactics used to shoot down the Rafale, and therefore the performance of Chinese equipment in real combat conditions.
7. Everyone pays for their choices, but not only in arms purchases before the conflict, but also in their strategy when hostilities begin. The Indians gave priority to ground targets and paid for it with a Rafale. Maybe this choice was worth it for them. If it were Israel, they would not have had such an easy loss. But anyway.
8. For the downing of the 6 Pakistani aircraft, S400s were used with 300 km shots.
9. A downed Rafale equals none… It could be human error, momentary operational risk, personal level, insufficient pilot training. The issue would be whether the use was if the downings were enough and destroyed the Indian air force. Important information is missing (deciphered and it makes sense)..We are talking about the largest air battle of the last decades, with losses of 1-2% on both sides.
There are other qualitative elements that are missing. For example, if the Pakistanis launched 15-20 PL-15 and one was hit, because the Spectra probably worked and the correct actions were taken to neutralize the enemy in the remaining cases, do you think that the view of air combat has changed worldwide?
10. We recall that in Lebanon an IDF F-16 was shot down, which was attributed to the wrong reaction of the pilots. (and so)?
11. One element of the local battlefield is the high mountain ranges that make the role of flying radar difficult as they provide undetectable penetration channels.
12. What we note is the inability or reluctance of both air forces to violate each other’s borders.
The development of the war
However, India continued its operations against Pakistani targets, both military infrastructure and installations, which it considered to be terrorist training centers or gathering places. The supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles, of Indian manufacture, penetrated Pakistani air defenses, as did the French SCALP, while the exchanges of attacks, including artillery and drones, continued until 10 May. The conflict ended with a ceasefire later that day, after negotiations, mediated by the United States.
The comment of the British Chief of Staff, Mr. Greg Bagwell (former head of the RAF), was indicative of the analysis of the conflict, stating that, “the conflict did not demonstrate a clear superiority of Western or Chinese weapons, but it emphasized how important information management is, where whichever side has the best surveillance and perception of the environment will be the winner.”
The impact on the West
As far as Western air forces and combat doctrines are concerned, the India-Pakistan conflict has shown that China has evolved significantly technologically and can offer comprehensive air combat solutions, with a combination of new aircraft and weapons such as the PL-15, while it is already developing even more advanced systems such as the J-20, J-35 stealth fighters and others. So the shooting down of a Rafale is not just an isolated incident, but also a sign that the global military balance may be shifting.
Turkey has close relations with Pakistan, with extensive military cooperation and arms sales, so sooner or later it will incorporate the lessons of the conflict, and perhaps even manage to transfer relevant know-how. Very recently, Turkish companies announced not one, but two different long-range ramjet-powered air-to-air missiles, which will receive operational certification in a few years.
Ankara has also previously collaborated with China to purchase military ballistic missile know-how (with the B-611 launcher system) which formed the basis for the development of later Turkish-developed equivalent weapons, such as the Bora/Tayfun missiles. So we cannot rule out something similar happening again in any field of defense technology, either directly or indirectly through Pakistan or Azerbaijan.
In conclusion, the downing of the Rafale by the J-10CE and the PL-15 constitutes a turning point in modern air combat. Clearly, a single aircraft downing does not discredit the Rafale, which remains one of the most remarkable Western fighters. But it reveals the need for its methodical utilization, with correct tactics and new doctrines, with a constant search for information on the actions of its potential adversary, with careful mission planning and with its reinforcement (like any fighter), with a network of digital analysis, data collection and processing and certainly within a network-centric management system. Now the future of air combat will depend on the ability of states to adapt to an environment where technological superiority will not be guaranteed.
