Military analysts attribute the latest statements by the chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, to methodical propaganda aimed at creating the impression that Russian victory is inevitable, as he presented figures for Moscow’s conquests in Ukraine that are significantly different from reality.
According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces have captured 3,500 square kilometers since March, when in reality the area controlled by Russia is about 2,350 square kilometers. Analysts point out that the Kremlin is attempting to exploit large amounts of quantitative data to cultivate the illusion of a rapid advance.
“The Kremlin is trying to convince the West that Russia will inevitably achieve its war goals, so that Ukraine will give in to Moscow’s demands and the West will stop supporting it,” the Institute notes.
At the same time, Russian forces are reportedly suffering “particularly high losses” since the winter of 2024 in order to achieve limited gains, with these losses considered “unsustainable” in the medium and long term.
The differences between Gerasimov’s statements and the Institute’s estimates are striking:
- In the Luhansk region, both sides agree on 99.7% control
- In the Donetsk region, Gerasimov speaks of 79%, while the Institute puts it at 76.7%
- In the Kherson region, the Russian general speaks of 76%, with the Institute placing control at 73.2%
- In the Zaporizhia region, Gerasimov reports 74%, while the Institute puts it at 73%
- As for the number of settlements, the Russian version speaks of 149, compared to the 130 estimated by the Institute
In the city of Kupyansk, Gerasimov claimed that Russia controls 50%, while the Institute’s estimates limit the figure to 6.3%.
For the towns near the Port, Gerasimov spoke of 10, when the Institute records five.
In the Velikomykhailivka district, in the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Russian side claimed to hold five towns, compared to three recognized by the Institute.
Moscow’s figures exaggerated, Kiev says
Ukraine’s armed forces said on Monday that despite Moscow’s claims of a successful summer offensive, Russian forces had failed to fully take control of a single major Ukrainian city and were “greatly exaggerating” the figures for territory captured.
“Despite Gerasimov’s claims, Russian forces have not fully taken control of any major city,” the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said in a statement on social media.
“The figures presented by the occupying forces regarding the territories and settlements captured are greatly exaggerated,” it said.
