Rome and Athens have identified Turkey and Russia as complicit in a growing security threat from North Africa. Don’t focus so much on Ukraine that you miss the serious threats to European security lurking in Libya. That is the message Italy and Greece are trying to convey to their EU and NATO allies, but without much success.
Migration flows from Libya are rising again, at a time when Rome is increasingly concerned about Russia’s growing influence in the volatile North African nation, exercised through arms supplies and a possible new naval base in the northeastern port of Tobruk.
Athens has also sent warships to conduct patrols off Libya, in response to the wave of migration and its strategic concerns that its rival, Turkey, is working with the Libyans to divide the Mediterranean into maritime zones for energy exploration.
The zones claim waters just south of the Greek island of Crete, which Athens considers illegal under international maritime law.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has described Libya as a country in “an emergency that Europe must address together,” but a European effort to make some diplomatic progress last week degenerated into a farce.
EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner, accompanied by ministers from Italy, Greece and Malta, was declared “persona non grata” in Benghazi, the stronghold of eastern Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar. Accused of unspecified “violations,” the delegation was ordered to leave.
Russia’s role in Libya continues to expand, using it as a central hub in its African strategy. a politically connected smuggling network in Libya has been supporting Russia’s strategic efforts, helping Moscow circumvent sanctions and weaponize migration.
Italy and Greece know, however, that tackling a problem as complex as Libya, a country three times the size of Spain, will require support from major allies such as the US and France.
So far, however, the response from these allies has been disappointing.
The zones claim waters just south of the Greek island of Crete, which Athens considers illegal under international maritime law.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has described Libya as a country in “an emergency that Europe must address together,” but a European effort to make some diplomatic progress last week degenerated into a farce.
EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner, accompanied by ministers from Italy, Greece and Malta, was declared “persona non grata” in Benghazi, the stronghold of eastern Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar. Accused of unspecified “violations,” the delegation was ordered to leave.
Russia’s role in Libya continues to expand, using it as a central hub in its African strategy. a politically connected smuggling network in Libya has been supporting Russia’s strategic efforts, helping Moscow circumvent sanctions and weaponize migration.
Italy and Greece know, however, that tackling a problem as complex as Libya, a country three times the size of Spain, will require support from major allies such as the United States and France.
So far, however, the response from those allies has been disappointing.
Migration back on the agenda
The Greek government announced tough new rules on migration on Wednesday as it struggles to cope with a surge in arrivals from Libya to Crete at the height of the tourist season.
“An emergency situation requires emergency measures and therefore the Greek government has taken the decision to inform the European Commission that… it is proceeding with the suspension of the processing of asylum applications, initially for three months, for those arriving in Greece from North Africa by sea,” said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
About 9,000 people have arrived in Crete from Libya since the beginning of the year, most of them in recent weeks, already almost double the number for all of 2024.
In late June, Greece deployed two warships in an attempt to curb the recent surge in migrant arrivals. Senior government officials, however, have cast doubt on their effectiveness, warning that naval patrols may encourage migrants to throw themselves into the water to seek rescue.
As expected, more than 2,000 migrants have arrived in Crete in the past week alone.
The Greek government has also been criticized by both the opposition and its own officials for neglecting the Libya file in recent years.
Overall, there was a 7% increase in irregular crossings in the central Mediterranean in the first part of the year, almost entirely from Libya, compared with an overall 20% decrease on all other main routes.
The crackdown in Greece has also raised fears in Italy that more migrants will be pushed into Italian waters.
Worrying is one thing, finding a solution is quite another. Diplomats described last week’s diplomatic mission as an attempt to determine what solutions might be feasible.
EU money, after all, would likely play a role. The EU struck a highly controversial deal with Tunisia in 2023, in which it paid authorities to stop migration, but diplomats doubt whether such a model could be replicated in a country as destabilized by rival militias as Libya.
The Russians in Libya
A recent display of Russian weapons in Benghazi during a military parade showed the Kremlin’s growing closeness to Haftar.
Russia wants a stronghold in the Mediterranean, especially after Moscow lifted its lease on the port of Tartus by the new authorities in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
Italy’s Tajani has issued regular warnings that Libya is the most likely destination for a replacement naval base.
According to a report by the Agenzia Nova news agency, Moscow also wants to install missile systems at a military base in Sheba in southern Libya, which is controlled by Haftar, and to point the missiles towards Europe.
Many analysts and diplomats are skeptical about whether Moscow is already in the process of launching missiles towards Europe from Libya. But even without the missiles, Russia can already use a handful of military bases in Libya for logistical support, “which could theoretically hit Europe,” said Arturo Varvelli, a senior political fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
So far, Russia has mainly used Libyan bases to conduct its operations in the rest of Africa, operating mainly through the Russian African Cooperation Corps, with the support of Russia’s defense ministry.
There are also growing fears among southern European officials that Russia could soon be able to leverage migration from Libya in a repeat of the hybrid war that began on the EU’s eastern front, when it forced refugees from the Middle East across the Belarusian border into Poland.
However, not everything is going as Russia wants.
One of the diplomats said the cost of the war in Ukraine was depriving the African Union of the funding it needed to pay Libyan militias, creating tensions with its proxies and Haftar.
Seeking allies
Despite the seriousness of these threats from Libya, Italy and Greece are struggling to convince their allies to take action.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni discussed Libya with French President Emmanuel Macron in a three-hour meeting in Rome on June 4.
Libya “is of course a key issue for both Italy and France,” said an Italian official with direct knowledge of the talks between Paris and Rome, highlighting “shared concerns, particularly about security – also in terms of Russia’s growing presence there – and migration.”
The Italian official, however, acknowledged that there are “nuances” between the two countries’ positions “on possible political solutions.”
Libya is increasingly being added to the agenda of more diplomatic discussions, but in practice little is happening. While Italy desperately wants the support of military heavyweight France, the issue is simply not as vital to Paris as it is to Rome, and it exposes France’s recent failures in Mali and Niger.
Politically, the French government is not particularly interested in criticizing Russia, because this highlights the failures of the French government, given that France has gradually withdrawn from African countries in the Sahel region, while Russia has increased its presence.
And with the US increasingly turning to the Pacific, there is little hope that Washington will invest much political capital in stabilizing the country.
Most tellingly, the most recent NATO declaration, signed on June 25 in The Hague, does not even mention Africa.
This is a bitter pill for the Italians. Rome must now face this reality.
If there is no action from the EU, which is generally non-existent, then the cost will be enormous not only for Greece, Italy, but for the entire Old Continent.
