The increasingly incoherent statements of Western officials make it clear that the West has panicked in the face of Ukraine’s imminent capitulation to Russia. The statements of panic also make it clear that the core of the Western system of governance is suffering from a malignancy that has probably gone undiagnosed by the leaders in Washington and Brussels. Hopefully it will be diagnosed by the US and EU people.
How important was or is Ukraine in the geopolitical chessboard of the Western powers? The answer is given by government officials from both sides of the Atlantic, declaring identically: “If we lose Ukraine, we will lose the world for decades. A defeat for Ukraine could be the beginning of the end of the golden age of the West.”
That is, from the point of view of the Western oligarchy, the stakes in Ukraine could hardly be higher, and since the West is so powerful and highly sophisticated, the battle must be won. But is it so?
After two years of Russian military operations, it is now clear that Russia is winning and Ukraine is now a broken country. And all this despite the comprehensive trade sanctions against Russia and the full support of Ukraine from its Western allies in the form of economic, humanitarian and military aid. Practically NATO has disarmed to supply Ukraine with arms and ammunition, despite constant childish talk and statements that Ukraine destroyed 50% of Russia’s military force and recaptured Russian-held territory.
One of the arguments of these childish discussions is that the West can outspend Russia in military spending by 10 times. That may be true, but the point is what can western armed forces buy by spending 10 times as much as Russia. In fact, the West would have to outsell Russia ten times over to barely keep up in terms of arms and ammunition production volume. For example, as we all know one of the biggest shortages of Western armed forces is the supply of ammunition.
As the New York Times reported in a September 2023 article (Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say), Russia produces at least seven times more munitions than the US and its Western allies combined, at about one-tenth the cost of western manufacturers. For example, while the cost of a Russian 152mm round is about $600, NATO would have to budget between $6,000 and $8,000 for 155mm rounds.
Russia is far ahead not only in the volume of production of war material, but also in terms of innovation, quality and overall efficiency. The Russian arsenal includes a wide range of weapons, from super-sonic precision missiles, the world’s most effective air defense systems and cheap but deadly drones, to simple weapons such as field artillery and ammunition to operate them around the clock for many months. On the other hand, the US and NATO still rely on old weapons systems that were state-of-the-art in the 1990s, but are now largely obsolete.
In an excellent and important analysis based on the recent National Defense Industrial Strategy (www.businessdefense.gov/NDIS.html) of the US Department of Defense, the reasons why the united West is clearly losing the arms race are listed not only by Russia, but also from China. The analysis highlights the critical difference: While Russia’s arms industry is purpose-driven, its Western counterpart is profit-driven.
The Western military-industrial complex is completely focused on profit goals, which has created a perverse incentive system that renders its performance inefficient in more ways than one.
1. First of all, the private arms procurement companies of the West have shown an aggressive pursuit of profit, which has led them to abandon the stockpiling of necessary materials, thus maintaining production capacity from “just in time” normal supply needs. As a result, they lack the ability to rapidly ramp up production in response to urgent “national security” needs.
2. Also, the profit motive has led Western defense industries to outsource much of the production of critical components to countries with lower labor costs. In many cases, these countries happen to be the US’s strategic rivals today. In other words, the US has made its “national security” dependent on its declared enemies.
Last year Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes admitted that his company relies on several thousand suppliers in China. For example, engine subsidiary Pratt and Whitney and aerospace systems specialist Collins Aerospace employ approximately 2,000 direct employees in China. Hayes acknowledged that “if we were to withdraw from China, it would take us many, many years to rebuild that capability, either domestically or in other friendly countries.”
3. Perhaps most importantly, Western arms manufacturers have reduced their workforces and reduced investment in education and training.
This error, namely the profit motive over the needs of “national security”, has become entrenched as an undiagnosed malignant tumor because it has allowed the interest groups that own the Western military-industrial complex and other key industries (big banks, Big Tech , Big Ag and Big Pharma) to become extremely wealthy. They are also deeply entrenched in the power networks of society (they practically control governments) and as such, they have grown and resisted completely any curtailment of their extraordinary privileges, even when it becomes clear that they are leading their nations to destruction.
In Edward Luce’s book Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent, reference is made to a strategy session held in 2011 by 16 senior US military officers at the National Defense Academy West Point. They came to the following conclusion:
“The window for American hegemony is closing. We are now at a point where we still have a choice. By 2021, we will no longer have options. The US is too dependent on its military and should drastically reduce its “global footprint” by ending all wars, especially in Afghanistan, and closing military bases in Germany, South Korea, the UK and elsewhere in peacetime. All of this is a means to an end, which is to restore America’s economic vitality. Our Νο.1 goal should be to restore America’s prosperity. This is why we are recommending that the Pentagon cut its budget by at least 20%. Most of the savings will be spent on political priorities such as infrastructure, education and foreign aid. No one here believes that the politics in this town will change overnight. We just say we have a problem when they don’t. It’s not about ideology, it’s about understanding where we are as a country.”
This happened in 2011, of course the warning was ignored and no course correction was allowed. Wickedness has consumed the wealth of America and is consuming the wealth of Europe to pursue self-destructive military adventures around the world, with known results.
What do we have to do?
To speak the truth openly and courageously. To reject the idea that we have to fight the Russians or the Chinese because that is what the “politically correct” West and the interests of international usurers force us to do. Is Russia or China threatening us? As Napoleon Bonaparte said: “Wars arise when the government tells you who the enemy is. Revolutions happen when you figure it out for yourself.”
