Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran, which took place last Friday, June 13, was a well-planned operation. Israeli Mossad agents and special forces inside Iranian territory used drones to take out a large number of early warning radars and killed the heads of the Revolutionary Guards’ aerospace and missile forces, as well as some of the top scientists in Iran’s nuclear program.
This was followed by an attack by about 200 Israeli air force fighters that, without any significant air defense response, struck Iranian nuclear facilities and missile bases. The next day, Iran responded by launching dozens of ballistic missiles into Israeli territory.
Israel’s surprise attack appears to have succeeded, but that is not enough. This new round of war will last a long time until either the targets on both sides or the available ammunition are exhausted. The latter applies to Iran and its ability to produce ballistic missiles.
We have a war where the adversaries, who do not share a common border, use different weapons. Israel with its efficient intelligence services and its powerful air force, and Iran with its missile capabilities.
The key question is why did Israel launch the preemptive strike now?
Iran
After the Islamic revolution of 1979 that overthrew the Shah’s regime and after the bloody eight-year war with Iraq (1980-1988), the new Iranian regime realized that, in the face of the hostility of the West and Israel, it needed allies in order to survive.
Thus, it began to progressively build a new Persian Empire. The glue was Shiite Islam and the ideological project of defending the Palestinians and destroying the Israeli state.
In the last decade, it had succeeded in creating the so-called “Axis of Resistance” that included Syria under the previous Assad regime, the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon, various Shiite militias in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza and the Shiite Houthis in Yemen. All these regimes and organizations were financed and armed by Tehran.
After the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, in southern Israel, the “Axis of Resistance” began to disintegrate. The Israeli war machine outside of Hamas struck Hezbollah, killed its leadership and neutralized its powerful missile force. Then came the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran lost its proxies and was consequently weakened. It was a moment that its adversary could exploit.
Israel
The Israeli state, since its founding, has waged three wars with its neighboring Arab states and many military operations against Palestinian organizations in Lebanon.
For Israel, it is an existential problem that there should not be a Muslim hegemonic power, especially a nuclear one, in the wider Middle East. Now, with Iran’s weakening, it has considered that there is a “window of opportunity” to achieve a strategic defeat for its adversary.
To achieve this, however, it will have to achieve a change in the theocratic regime that emerged from the Islamic Revolution. At present, this is almost impossible because during a war, people rally around their leadership to confront the enemy.
Only if there is a long period of truce will the Iranian regime be challenged from within. Therefore, neither side has an interest in stopping the military operations soon.
Israel would also have every interest in dragging Iran into actions, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would provoke the intervention of other powers (USA, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.) on its side. The strike on the “South Pars” natural gas field in the Gulf is indicative of Israeli objectives.
Beyond strategic plans, however, it is the “fog of war” that will determine the course of events.
