Plans for a new Middle East are in full swing. On June 13, Israel launched a series of devastating strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, aiming to destroy its ability to build nuclear weapons. The uranium enrichment facility was particularly badly hit. Senior Iranian military commanders are reported to have been killed, as well as scientists linked to the Iranian nuclear program.
Iran has vowed to respond to the Israeli attack. As it has on the other two occasions. A short while ago, international news agencies reported that around 100 suicide drones were launched, and possibly later, ballistic missiles. This is the first phase of the strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Because it should be considered certain that both sides no longer have any choice but to back down…
Israel will proceed with more strikes against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, while the targets may be expanded. On the other hand, the theocratic regime of Iran does not have the slightest leeway to back down and not respond to the Israeli strikes. It is literally playing its last game, since the developments of the last few hours are also directed against its retention in power.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statement was directed against the regime and made an opening to the “great Iranian people”, recalling the cooperation and friendship between the two sides before the Islamic revolution of 1979. He also said that “the day of liberation is near”. This statement directly refers to regime change. Of course, as experience has shown many times, plans rarely come out as they are “on paper”. The variations of the various scenarios are numerous…
What is certain is that now, neither side has the slightest room to back down. In the two previous strikes that led to the Iranian attacks on Israel, there was an obvious restraint on the part of the Iranians, aiming for an informal understanding with the leaderships in Jerusalem and Washington. “We cannot not respond, if you do not continue we will complete the retaliatory strike somewhere here”.
Absolute impasse
This time, however, the facts are completely different and we are not only referring to Trump’s presence in power in the USA. This conflict must end in some way. The Iranian regime has no choice but to proceed by all means in building a nuclear arsenal and Israel not to allow it… Given today’s data, in case nuclear weapons existed, the probability of their use would be very high…
This practically means that the Israeli operation does not actually have the ability to be limited, but will have to be expanded in every possible way, in an attempt to overthrow the theocratic regime as a whole. And this is a very critical parameter. Because it remains to be proven in practice whether and to what extent this is feasible.
What is certain is that Iranian society is divided. The percentage of those who would like the removal of the mullahs’ regime is not negligible. It cannot be said with certainty whether it is a majority or not, but it is equally certain that the Islamist wing is still very strong. In addition to the fact that it has the power of repression in its hands and that the future of the Islamic revolution, and therefore the very character and orientation of the country, is at stake…
For the time being, however, it is too early to decide with certainty about the course that the conflict will take. If anything is certain, it is that it will be until the final fall. The case will become clear one way or another, in a way that will have changed the Middle East. Besides, this process has essentially been underway since October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched its attack on southern Israel…
The goal was to prevent the Jewish state from further rapprochement with Sunni Saudi Arabia because this would harm the interests and security of theocratic Shiite Iran. All the Iranian “proxies” in the region, which over time had been armed and were an organic part of the Iranian strategy towards Israel, with the aim of preventing a blow against Iran, but at the same time a tool for projecting power far beyond the country’s borders, were also released. They attacked Israel, attracting harsh retaliation.
For Israel, there was no other choice but to try to dismantle this entire Iranian network, as we wrote from the very beginning. This time the conflict had qualitatively escalated, with the result that the conflict was “to the last drop”, not another round. Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen are parts of this picture.
The Ukrainian front and the outcome of the conflict
A lot will be said in the coming days and we will possibly see more. What we should not forget, however, is the relationship of this particular front with that of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is certain to take advantage of another juncture where the eyes of the world community will once again fall as a priority on the Middle East.
This is the first picture of the situation after Israel launched strikes against the Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Iranian retaliation has begun. It remains to be seen whether and to what extent the mullahs’ capabilities to seriously harm Israel have been affected. Also, whether and in what way the issue of the regime’s survival will ultimately arise. Because the possibility that the coming days will hold surprises for everyone is extremely high.
The only certainty is that this conflict will not end simply with the Israelis “buying time”, that is, delaying the Iranian nuclear program for a while. Since the Jewish state has pledged not to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, it has no alternative but to go all the way.
The negative charge in the region gives rise to the certainty that if Iran were to find itself with nuclear weapons in its hands, the probability of using them would be extremely high. For geographical reasons, in such a case the advantage would clearly have passed into Iranian hands… For this reason, it is impossible for Israel not to be supported by the US, although not directly militarily for the time being
