Recently, Ukraine carried out a deadly attack with drones, destroying a large number of Russian bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons in the Asian region of the country. Thus, after the historic attack on June 1, 2025, against Russian strategic aviation using unmanned FPV aircraft by the Ukrainians, it was said that one of the elements of Russia’s nuclear triad was significantly weakened.
Critical Questions
- The question that looms after the latest Russian threats of a nuclear strike on the US is how many nuclear warheads does Russia have for its Tu-22M3, Tu-95MS, Tu-160 bombers and which of them could reach America?
- What are the estimated capabilities of the air element of Russia’s nuclear triad?
Russia’s nuclear warheads for its strategic bomber fleet
To answer the above questions, we will rely on the data provided in the SIPRI Yearbook 2024, which describes in detail the nuclear arsenals of nuclear-weapon states (data are as of January 2024).
It is noted that the strategic aviation of the Russian Federation at that time had approximately 586 nuclear warheads.
The distribution was as follows:
430 nuclear warheads for Kh-55 and Kh-102 missiles carried by a fleet of 52 Tu-95MS strategic bombers, and 156 nuclear warheads for the same Kh-55 and Kh-102 missiles carried by 15 Tu-160/160M.
Additionally, it is claimed that 114 nuclear warheads are available for the Kh-22N and Kh-32 missiles, intended for use with the Tu-22M3.
It thus turns out that in total, the Russian strategic aviation possesses approximately 700 nuclear warheads.
Putin’s Land and Sea-Based Nuclear Warheads
This number of approximately 700 nuclear warheads for the Russian Federation’s strategic aviation can be compared to the figures of 1,244 nuclear warheads for land-based ICBMs and 992 nuclear warheads for sea-based ICBMs. It turns out that strategic bombers only account for up to 25% of the total Russian nuclear arsenal.
Ukrainians’ painful blow to Russia’s airborne nuclear capability
It should be noted that, using only strategic aviation, Russia could deliver up to 586 nuclear warheads on Kh-102 and Kh-55 missiles directly to the territory of the United States.
These missiles have declared ranges of up to 5,500 kilometers and 2,500 kilometers, respectively. The Kh-22N and Kh-32 missiles have declared maximum ranges of 600 kilometers and 1,000 kilometers, respectively, posing a direct threat to Europe.
However, if we base our calculations on the minimal confirmed Russian losses of 13 Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers, we can conclude that as a result of the June 1, 2025 attack, Russia lost aircraft capable of carrying approximately 100 missiles with nuclear warheads.
This is a significant result.
Once additional visual confirmation of the destroyed Russian strategic aircraft is obtained, the corresponding number of nuclear warheads will be significantly higher.
The role of the Western Intelligence Services in the Ukrainian strike
In our opinion, the role and assistance of the Western Intelligence Services to the Ukrainians in carrying out the strike on the other side of Russia, using satellite systems, was essential, pinpointing the gaps in Putin’s air defense.
Satellite images released by a US aerospace company and analyzed by an OSINT expert on June 2, 2025, confirmed that at least three Tu-95MS and one Tu-22M3 bombers had been destroyed, and another Tu-95MS had been lightly damaged. Additional images suggest the destruction of four more Tu-22M3s, bringing the total to at least 8 confirmed losses. Other Western sources say that a total of 10 to 12 strategic aircraft were damaged… Regarding the bridge in Crimea, the Security Service of Ukraine claimed yesterday that it had detonated underwater explosives, damaging its pylons. However, the bridge reopened a little later and from 19:00 local time traffic returned to its normal level… The attack on the military airfields in Siberia with the 8 to 12 (according to Western sources) strategic Russian aircraft that were hit by an organized sabotage plan, is largely due to the fact that the saboteurs took advantage of the fact that the Russians are obliged, under a mutual US-Russian treaty (New Start) that is in force until 2026 for the control of strategic nuclear forces, to have these bombers fully visible. The treaty also established a robust inspection and verification regime, including on-site inspections, data sharing and telemetry exchange, to ensure compliance and build trust between the two countries, which possess over 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons… Many believe that Ukraine, with this strike – which was organized jointly with Western intelligence services – has caught itself in the spider’s web of its own making, as the idea of striking Russia’s strategic nuclear forces opened Pandora’s Box! The Americans are already in “dissonance” and have distanced themselves!
However, the symbolic message is strong: Russian strategic depth is no longer invulnerable.
There is a sense among Russians that the sheer size of their country provides them with security. What Ukraine has done is strike at the heart of that feeling.
The timing of the strike is anything but coincidental, since Trump has now made it clear through his statements that he has understood Putin’s game, supposedly for talks to end the war, while in reality he is seeking to gain time in order to conquer even more territory.
There are now two of them.
Either Putin will rationalize by returning to the negotiating table with the Ukrainians, truly seeking to end the war,
or he will seek revenge by leading the course of the war down dangerous paths, with the US over-arming Zelensky and the war continuing, which seems increasingly likely.
