If the threat posed by a rapidly expanding arsenal of conventional and nuclear missiles from China, launched from the air, ground and sea, is not enough, the United States now faces the potential threat of a Chinese missile attack from low Earth orbit.
China could amass dozens of orbiting missiles with nuclear warheads in about 10 years, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) warned on May 13 (“DIA releases ‘Golden Dome’ missile threat assessment“).
These missiles could reach the United States in significantly less time than conventional intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the DIA said. The revelation came in a diagram released by the DIA ahead of a White House statement on the threats to the United States that President Donald Trump’s recently launched Golden Dome missile defense shield would be designed to address.
Of the many advanced missile threats outlined in the diagram, the most significant is the potential expansion of space-based nuclear-powered missiles in orbit in a “Fractional Orbital Bombardment System,” or FOBS, to China and, to some extent, Russia.
The diagram described the FOBS missile as: “An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that enters a low-altitude orbit before re-entering to strike its target, with much shorter flight times if it flies in the same direction as traditional ICBMs, or can fly over the South Pole to evade early warning systems and missile defenses. It drops its payload before completing a full orbit.”
FOBS: The Terrible Threat
1. Definition: A FOBS is a ballistic missile that enters low Earth orbit (LEO), completes less than a full orbit, and then re-enters to strike its target.
Advantages: Can evade traditional early warning and defense systems by:
– Unpredictable trajectories (e.g., via the South Pole).
– Reduced reaction time for defense.
History: Originally developed by the Soviet Union in the 1960s (e.g., the R-36O), but was withdrawn due to restrictions imposed by the terms of nuclear arms control agreements.
2. China’s Hypersonic Weapons Fusion:
In 2021, China tested a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) launched by a Long March 2C rocket that passed through low Earth orbit before re-entering.
A hybrid threat is emerging—a fusion of FOBS and hypersonic weapons—that is much harder to predict or prevent. By 2035, China could have:
- 60 FOBS missiles
- 4,000 hypersonic glide vehicles (up from 600 now)
- 700 ICBM missiles (up from 400 now)
3. Strategic Impact:
- The reduced reaction time makes the nuclear deterrent doctrine unstable.
- Bypassing radar systems through alternative space trajectories weakens traditional early warning systems.
- US defense strategy must now encompass all threat dimensions: air, land, sea, and space.
The US Golden Dome
1. Trump’s Executive Order (January 27):
Order to develop a comprehensive missile defense system for the entire continental America. Goal: to neutralize:
- Ballistic missiles
- Hypersonic weapons
- Cruise missiles
- Next-generation air threats
2. What will the Golden Dome consist of
- Space detectors – To destroy missiles in the launch or intermediate flight phase.
- Satellite tracking systems – Including:
- Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS)
- Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA)
- Directed energy weapons (possibly) – Laser or microwave systems in space.
Strategic Implications of Golden Dome
Advantages:
- Aims to protect against a variety of missile threats, including those previously considered theoretical (e.g., space-based nuclear weapons).
- Demonstrates the U.S. strategic intent to maintain deterrence and survivability in an evolving missile landscape.
Disadvantages:
- Space-based missile defense is highly controversial:
- Legally questionable under the Outer Space Treaty.
- Technologically unproven and extremely expensive.
- Could trigger an arms race in space and increase Chinese and Russian countermeasures.
- Lacks a clearly defined architecture, raising concerns about practical implementation and control.
A New Era of Space-Based Threats
- The DIA revelations and the U.S. response through Golden Dome reflect a new era of missile threats—one where space is becoming the next critical battlefield.
- The strategic competition with China is now well-established in space, and whether Golden Dome becomes a technological success or remains an unfulfilled goal depends on how Washington manages the balance between innovation, deterrence, and arms control.
