Most predictions about Russia’s future paint the same picture:
Russia is either locked in an endless conflict with the West or will soon be absorbed by China.
But it has other options, stemming from the shift of economic power from Europe to Asia, the breakdown of relations with the West over the war in Ukraine, climate change, the opening of the Arctic, and its own potential in renewable energy. Societies and governments in Asia and the Global South also welcome a stronger Russia.
Its former Cold War position of power is not about to return. However, with new sources of power and resilience, and its status as a nuclear power, Russia may continue to play an outsized role in world politics. New “green shoots”—which many ignore—are emerging, heralding a very different Russia.
The Turn East
Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s obsession with Ukraine and NATO, he remains committed to his long-held belief in the country’s Eurasian destiny.
The return to Russian conservative thinking has been particularly strong whenever ties with Western Europe have come under strain. Russia’s turn East predates the two wars in Ukraine.
Putin had supported Yeltsin’s efforts to resolve long-standing border disputes and rebuild relations with China, announcing Russia’s turn East during his 2012 election campaign – two years before the annexation of Crimea. Initially mocked by Western commentators, this gradual shift has proven salutary in the face of Western sanctions.
Beyond geopolitical considerations, Russia believes that this change of course obeys basic economic logic, as the center of gravity of the global economy is returning to Asia.
Strengthening ties with China in the short term
After the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, Putin secured a $400 billion deal between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation – Russia’s largest gas deal since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Putin called the deal a “landmark event” that solidified Russia-China relations. Beijing has yet to approve the second Power of Siberia pipeline that would make up for lost gas exports to Europe. However, bilateral trade has skyrocketed since 2022. Trade with China has become the main savior of the Russian economy.
- Bilateral trade in dollar terms reached $240 billion in 2023, up 26.3% from the previous year. Imports from China rose by 46.9% in 2023.
- In the same year, Russia exported 50% of its oil and oil products to China.
- Chinese carmakers are flooding Russian markets, following the withdrawal of European companies.
- Russian elites are concerned about dependence on Beijing and are wary of a China that remains economically dependent on Western consumers.
Nevertheless, Russia has limited alternatives for the next decade or more. Even if it pursues greater activity in the Global South, its dependence on China remains. However, with plans and existing networks of railways, pipelines and the Northern Sea Route (NSR), Moscow is laying the foundation for a revitalization that will bring balance to its relations with the Land of the Dragon.
Transport and trade links
With trade with Europe largely cut off, Russia’s Asian ports are bustling with activity. But more links to its western population centres are needed.
The carrying capacity of Russia’s Trans-Siberian Railways reached 180 million tonnes by the end of 2024. Moscow plans to increase that figure to 270 million tonnes by 2032. But a report last year said that sanctions, the war in Ukraine and high interest rates had forced Russian Railways to significantly scale back its investment plans, putting its expansion goals at risk.
Nevertheless, China and Russia are building direct transport links to boost their mutual trade.
- India is also exploring more transit corridors with Russia, although New Delhi is investing less than Beijing.
- Moscow and New Delhi have begun construction of the Vladivostok-Chennai Eastern Sea Corridor, which will include links to Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Putin signed an India-Russia cooperation program for trade, economic ties and investment in the Russian Far East for the period 2024–2029.
- Another plan is the North-South Corridor, a rail route that would connect Russia to the Indian Ocean via Iran.
The Northern Sea Route
The development of a 5,600-kilometer sea route in the Arctic Ocean would almost halve the distance that Asian goods currently travel via the Suez Canal to Western ports. However, for now, the route is only navigable in the summer months.
In addition, Western trading houses would only use the route if there is peace in Ukraine. Currently, the route is used to exploit and transport the region’s rich energy and mineral reserves. The region is estimated to have 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of its natural gas.
Most of the trade in the region involves transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russian facilities to Japan and China by specialized ships, along with oil on ships under sanctions. In 2024, there was a “record volume of transit cargo through the NSR from northwest Russia via the Bering Strait to Asia.”
The growing geopolitical importance of the Arctic
The empty GIUK, a strategic maritime point between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom, has become the scene of increased patrols and exercises by Russian submarines.
For years, Russia has prioritized strengthening its presence in the Arctic by renovating airfields, creating bases, training troops, and developing a network of military defense systems on its northern borders. China is cooperating increasingly closely. In October 2024, the Chinese Coast Guard and the Russian Border Guard conducted their first joint patrol in the Arctic.
China and Russia are now seen as having “comprehensive” cooperation in the Arctic, including natural resources, trade, scientific research and military exercises. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping are both fascinated by the new Arctic artery, which Putin sees as a symbol of “man conquering nature,” a central motif of Russian nationalism. Xi sees it as a sea route not currently controlled by the US Navy.
Benefits from climate change
Moscow and much of Russia west of the Urals could experience significant temperature increases by mid-century, but no significant reductions in rainfall or droughts are expected.
However, there is a risk that permafrost will melt and methane will be released into the atmosphere. On the other hand, warmer temperatures are expected to boost economic output in Russia by boosting agricultural yields and arable land.
According to a recent study in the journal Nature, under a “medium” climate change scenario, per capita income in northwest Russia could increase by up to 20% due to rising temperatures (“Rising greenhouse gas emissions embodied in the global bioeconomy supply chain“). The finding aligns with earlier studies, such as a 2017 IMF study, (“Russian Federation: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report“) which estimated that parts of Russia could see several percentage points of economic output increase for every 1°C rise in temperature.
Russia’s Renewable Energy Potential
The International Energy Agency estimated in 2003 that Russia’s economically exploitable renewable energy potential is equivalent to over 270 million tons of coal per year. More recent analyses show that Russia has the largest technical renewable energy potential in the world and could become a major exporter of clean energy.
The country is rich in renewable energy sources: wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, biomass, hydrogen and solar energy. However, their share in Russia’s energy consumption remains very low. As most countries transition to an era free of fossil fuels, the Russian leadership may, at some point, seize the opportunity to accelerate the development of renewables.
But there are obstacles. According to a report by the Energy Innovation and Reform Project, Russia’s decarbonization strategy “lacks a national carbon pricing system or other means of penalizing emissions.”
While Russia has pledged to achieve net zero emissions, it relies primarily on doubling its natural carbon sinks in its forests rather than renewables. Natural carbon sinks—such as oceans and rainforests—absorb more carbon dioxide than they release.
Russia is also pursuing technological dominance, which means it must manufacture equipment domestically. With such a small domestic market and a gradual ban on cheap Chinese imports, Russia’s manufacturing capacity for renewables will be tested. Moreover, renewable energy exports will only partially offset the loss of revenue from fossil fuel exports as the cost of renewables falls and global demand is reduced by local production.
An Asian energy network, proposed by Moscow in the early 2000s, could act as an outlet for Russia’s surplus energy, connecting power plants in eastern Russia, China, Mongolia, South Korea and Japan. The plans have been frozen, but Japan’s SoftBank, a potential major investor, has not abandoned the idea.
Russia is also highly competitive in nuclear energy and is the “world’s irreplaceable exporter of nuclear power plants.” More than a third of new nuclear reactors are being built with the help of the state-owned Russian nuclear corporation Rosatom.
A more welcoming environment
Indians stand out in terms of their overall positive image of Russia, with a majority viewing it favorably, according to a 2025 European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) survey.
They see Russia as a counterweight to China. Indeed, Putin arranged a meeting between Monti and Xi at the BRICS Summit in Kazan in 2024, leading to a de-escalation of tensions between China and India. Monti visited Russia twice in 2024, while Putin is scheduled to visit New Delhi in 2025. Other Asian countries show impressive acceptance of Russia as a partner, despite the violent neocolonial war in Ukraine.
A majority of Chinese people view Russia as an ally, according to a January 2023 ECFR poll. Predictably, Japan, South Korea, and Australia—as well as European countries—view Russia negatively, according to a 2024 Pew poll, but most countries in South and Southeast Asia, as well as Africa, have a positive view of Russia.
Russia’s strengthened ties with North Korea also increase its importance in Asia. The treaty signed between the two countries in June 2024 “provides Russia with a means to exert influence in East Asia and counter pressure from the West.” China does not look favorably on Moscow’s efforts to bring North Korea out of isolation.
A new Russia?
One thing is the prospect, another is the achievement. Without peace, the young, educated, and skilled Russians who fled with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine may not return in sufficient numbers to renew Russia’s former technological superiority.
Continuing hostilities with the West and increasing defense spending will also absorb resources that could be directed toward the country’s transformation. However, the benefits could be significant if a new Russia turns to the East and seizes the economic opportunities from climate change and a more favorable geopolitical environment.
A successful effort to normalize relations with the United States and the West could reopen the door to international finance and technology — though that is not enough to ensure that a new Russia abandons its challenges to the West.
